Nathan Otten

He is explicitly NOT arguing for moderation. "Not moderation. Not progressivism. But, in the older political sense of the term, representation."

FITCH: “.. While the feed through from tariff hikes to the CPI still looks quite slow, the impact is becoming a bit easier to see. Core goods inflation has now increased to +1.2% y/y, having been negative as recently as March.”

a graph of US data center construction rising to roughly $40B from $10B in 2020

Official data released yesterday shows US data center construction hitting another record high in June, exceeding $40B annualized for the first time

That's up 28% from this time last year and up 190% since the launch of ChatGPT nearly three years ago

What is the post in question?

It is quite rare for consumer spending to fall in inflation-adjusted terms. It happened during covid, and during the financial crisis, and it is happening now.

Best job title: Dad

Happy Father’s Day.

Still notable political bias in inflation expectations, but expectations are broadly rising and Independents' views are surging:

▶️Democrats: +8.0%
▶️Independents: +6.5%
▶️Republicans: +0.4%

h/t @michaelmcdonough.bsky.social

www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/u...

White evangelicals continue to stand out in their support for Trump Most White evangelicals (72%) say they approve of how Trump is doing as president. Other religious groups are more divided or disapprove.

www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/u...

The federal minimum wage is now officially a poverty wage, per @epi.org www.epi.org/blog/the-fed...

The Case for and Against US Stock Market Exceptionalism Despite high valuations, the US stock market remains attractive due to strong economic growth and productivity. But diversifying globally can help manage risks and uncover undervalued opportunities.

www.hartfordfunds.com/insights/mar...

US Household Allocations to Stocks.

YouTube video by ContraPoints CONSPIRACY | contrapoints

new video
youtu.be/teqkK0RLNkI?...

Americans responded (sharply!) to the Trump tariffs *before* they were even imposed. They imported extra stuff in December and January, rather than waiting and paying the higher prices that would occur when he was in office .

A Tale of Two Labor Markets On the eve of monumental economic policy

If you want to understand more about what I talked about on the show, you can read my newsletter here:
www.kedits.com/p/a-tale-of-...

Marriage rates for women without college degrees are falling The drop-off in marriage rates for women without degrees has everything to do with their male counterparts, researchers say.

This is my soapbox! We keep saying that women with degrees are "Childless cat ladies" in the Upper West Side. But as
@emilypeck.bsky.social reports, Marriage rates for women without college degrees are falling, while the rate for women with degrees is steady.
www.axios.com/2025/01/31/m...

Bloomberg says that Trump will immediately declare a national energy emergency. We all know why — it will be about gutting environmental protection. But still worth noting that US energy is actually doing fine, with production > consumption and exports > imports 1/

Poll finds Americans are indifferent to or feel positively about DEI Just 16% of those in a survey say they think DEI initiatives hindered their careers.

To hear certain folks tell it, DEI has led to all manner of problems. Actually, most people say that they either haven't been affected by DEI at all — or it's benefited their careers.
www.axios.com/2025/01/17/d...

Here's how monthly mortgage payment for buying a $500K home have changed over time. Remember: Fed cuts target short-term rates, but mortgage costs also hinge on inflation expectations, long-term Treasury yields, and global investor demand—so they don't always move in lockstep.

Arguably the most insightful politics and economics chart available—inflation expectations by political party affiliation—was just updated by the University of Michigan:

So proud of the great work happening in Minneapolis, which shows that boosting housing supply helps make homes more affordable.

Throw some ice cubes in it and call it iced coffee.

Now, let's see what we can do about fruit and vegetable prices... (HT @scottlincicome.bsky.social)

The usual suspects are out there yelling "There are 23 million government workers! Fire most of them!" No awareness that most work for local governments, and most of *them* are schoolteachers. Federal employment hasn't grown since the 1950s

Full report here: www.fb.org/files/Year-O...

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, Thanksgiving meals will be cheaper this year than the previous two years.

Gun violence is leading cause of death for children via @nytimes.com

Oh, forgot to include the "policy didn't cause inflation" chart 5/

GOP economic cheer offsets Dem gloom After the election Republican consumer sentiment surged, while it fell for Dems.

Can't stop thinking about this. Was all that handwringing over the vibecession -- the disconnect between sentiment and economic data... was mostly just Republicans who didn't like the Biden administration?

www.axios.com/2024/11/13/c...