Jean Fisch

What’s the truth about paracetamol and autism? It can be confounding Sometimes you need to dig deeper into the data but often it comes down to how you want to interpret it

I see this piece by @whippletom.bsky.social only now: It's brilliant, insightful and entertaining!

What is so hard to understand is that
- confounders can be insidiously hidden
- it is often impossible to prove NO association

Uncertainty is life's middle name

www.thetimes.com/article/766f...

One other thing about that study of cancer incidences by vax status in South Korea

I don't think this paper is formally peer-reviewed (yet?): It's clearly marked as correspondence and written as letter to the editors

One other thing about that study of cancer incidences by vax status in South Korea

I don't think this paper is formally peer-reviewed (yet?): It's clearly marked as correspondence and written as letter to the editors

Of course average age is incomplete - But all I wanted to show is that the image one may get that covid "killed at the very end of the age spectrum" is not accurate

(as I wrote on the chart, this is calculated based on deaths by age group / Istat shares daily deaths by 21 age groups by commune)

Evolution of average age at death in arguably the hardest hit region in Europe, Bergamo

Covid hardly affected the average of death despite being skewed to the very old and with multiple comorbidities

Why? Because, on average, death is skewed towards that population group

There was some confusion over on Twitter about until when the data goes so I redid the chart for clarity

The fact that the data goes up to 2022 is why it demonstrates that the study found a fake effect:
- 90% of adults were vaccinated by Oct 2021
- so the 27% impact should be seen in the 2022 data

This study of the Seoul population found a 27% increase in cancer diagnoses among vaxed within 1yr of vax

As 80%+ are vaxed, ONE LOOK at South Korea's cancer register would have shown that this cannot be real so is a analysis issue / vaccinee bias
biomarkerres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....

15% of all deaths being covid should be a red flag really ... Thanks for the detailed analysis

Warning: this is a dangerous report

You will be drawn into its pack of "aha"moments and, without noticing, it'll be two hours later :-)

Wow, that's quite a report! Well done to you and your colleagues!

I have this standard chart, it's per 100k

The figures I come to are
2020: 67k
2021: 43k
2022: 34k
2023: 8k
2024-2025: negative

LT Mortality Trend = 2013-2019

This data is assembled using
- Deaths occurrences as reported by England+Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland, corrected for late reporting (I have a full tool using 5-8 years of data)
- Population estimates as per latest actuals and national population projections for each nation

On excess mortality in the UK: Here the weekly death occurrences vs. expected from 2013-2019 mortality rate trend by age band

NB:
(a) Actuals are by DATE OF DEATH, not date of registration as ONS does
(b) Expected are per PRE-PANDEMIC TREND, not using pandemic years as ONS does

Well, that would be the conclusion of this eminent Harvard Professor (and Dean of the Public Health faculty no less!)

The issue with that Tylenol vs Autism study is as fundamental (and quite frankly basic) as that

It's quite extraordinary really ...

END

Just to show the absurdity of the analysis - Imagine

- 45 studies of looking at Venus through a beer bottle finds evidence of rings around Venus

- 1 study of looking at Venus through a telescope finds no rings

Would you conclude "there is evidence that Venus has rings"?

What the professor did was a meta-analysis and considered all the above studies to be relevant

Invariably, he concluded "we found evidence" and this is clearly at the heart of the US administration's claim (cf. this tweet and explanation by the prof)

x.com/PressSec/sta...

Evaluation of the evidence on acetaminophen use and neurodevelopmental disorders using the Navigation Guide methodology - Environmental Health Background Acetaminophen is the most commonly used over-the-counter pain and fever medication taken during pregnancy, with > 50% of pregnant women using acetaminophen worldwide. Numerous well-designed...

If you think this is a theoretical test, you are wrong

What I wrote above is EXACTLY what Prof Andrea Baccarelli, who was commissioned by the US government to analyse the field of link between Tylenol and autism, found when he reviewed the literature

ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....

Quick Test:

- 45 studies of 0.3-20k children over 2-10 years based on interviews without any control yield 20% increased risk
- 1 study based on 2.5m children over 25 years based on medical data shows 10% but, after control against siblings, shows 0% increase

What is the scientific conclusion?

Well I disagree here: I think it always pays off to address head on than being caught on the back foot (put over-simplistically)

Incidentally, the suspicion of accelerating cancer was made at the last ACIP meeting a few days ago via a presentation on vaccine harms

Because I have no idea if there is a mechanism or not like probably 99.99% of the population who are not cancer experts and therefore look at things through lenses I know

And you may have noticed that the healthy authorities in a large nation are toying with the idea that it is possible

The COVID-19 pandemic increased the incidence of newly diagnosed cancers: evidence from a large cohort study in Southern Italy - BMC Medicine Background Recent studies based on hospital and outpatient clinic databases have reported a decline in cancer diagnoses during the COVID-19 pandemic, an observation that has been mainly attributed to ...

Here the relevant documents:

a) study: bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....

b) Cancer report of Campania: www.regione.campania.it/assets/docum...

So, this closes (for the moment at least), the value of this study

One may of course wonder why this study did not do the "sniff test" of being representative that I did ... but it's not the first nor the last of such studies

Unfortunately

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Reason 2: The increase mid 2021 happened simultaneously across age groups while the vaccination campaign was largely age-sequential in Italy

So the sudden increase looks like a signal of renewed large scale screening as of mid 2021

10/

Reason 1: the data is not representative (as I showed above from the full data of the Campania region). But to just to underline this point, the annual figures of new diagnoses in Italy do not show any particular increase

9/

Of course, I do understand that this "sudden increase in diagnoses" as of mid-2021 will (and actually should) trigger interest: Could vaccines be at play here?

I don't see how out of two reasons

8/

In fact, the cancer report by the Campania region shows no statistically significant shift in cancer prevalance in the region in 2021 vs past trends

7/

So the study's results (based on a regional subset of population) are confounded by some demographic / health particularities specific to that health board

Unfortunately, this make that its conclusions of no value outside of that health board

6/

In fact, the data in this report shows that the health board "Napoli Centro" saw an increase in incidence (from 27.5 on average in 2017-2019 to 30 2020-2021) ... but the region as a whole did not!

(note also the very wide CIs)

5/

But here is the issue with this study based a sample

Campania produces an elaborate and comprehensive cancer report by health board on both age-standardized incidence and mortality and this report does not corroborate the increase

4/

The increase in cancer diagnoses found in the study cohort is quite striking, happening almost in an instant, around mid-2021

While the authors focus on covid as cause, this pattern will no doubt create also stir an interest among proponents of "vaccines cause cancer"

3/