Øystein Hernæs

Yes! Flere bør innrømme at vi ofte ikke vet, og handle for å skaffe bedre kunnskap.

62-åringer «minutt for minutt» (+) Hvor viktig er økonomiske incentiver for om 62-åringer pensjonerer seg? Svaret er her, fire måneder etter ny reform.

Very nice write-up (in Norwegian) by @terjeerikstad.bsky.social in @dagensnaeringsliv.bsky.social: www.dn.no/kommentar/fo... (paywalled)

😀😀😀😀😀Joint work by Øystein Hernæs (@oysteinhernaes.bsky.social), Simen Markussen, Oddbjørn Raaum (@oraaum.bsky.social), Knut Røed og Tao Zhang, all at the Frisch Centre.

Tydelig effekt av pensjonsreformen i offentlig sektor - Frischsenteret Fra januar 2025 ble AFP-ordningen i offentlig sektor lagt om: Nå kan ansatte født i 1963 eller senere ta ut pensjon fra 62 år uten at det påvirker hvor mye de kan jobbe. Tidligere ble AFP redusert der...

🔍 The reform made working more attractive.
Removing the earnings test increased the returns to work—and reduced early exit from the labor market.
Transparent data, pre-registered design, real-time results.
Read more: www.frisch.uio.no/om-oss/Nyhet...
Pre-registration: osf.io/yx7uf

🧪 Method:
We align workers on "event time" (the month they turn 62), and compare changes in work and income from just before to just after. Pre-trends are flat. Placebo tests on older cohorts show no effect. ✅

💰 Earnings also rose:
Real monthly wage income higher by 3,138 NOK (+6%) in the first month after age 62 for the reform cohort. No similar change for earlier cohorts.

See for yourself (blue line is reform cohort, which we can follow until event time = 1):

📈 The results are clear:
1963 cohort worked 1.75 hours more per week after turning 62 compared to what we’d expect without the reform. That’s +5.6% in average weekly hours.

👥 We compare the first reform cohort (born January 1963) to the last pre-reform cohort (born January 1962). Same public sector jobs, same age—different rules.

📊 What we wanted to know:
Does this change increase labor supply at age 62?
We used high-frequency payroll data and a pre-analysis plan registered before the outcome data were released.

📅 Reform applies to public-sector employees born in 1963 or later. AFP is now decoupled from labor earnings—workers can draw the full pension from 62, even if they stay in work full- or part-time.

#EconSky📉📈
Big change in Norway’s public sector pensions: From Jan 2025, the contractual early retirement benefit (AFP) is no longer reduced if you keep working after age 62. Colleagues and I at the Frisch Centre have just published the first results from a pre-registered near–real-time evaluation👇

After a long wait, the working paper for the Many-Economists Project: The Sources of Researcher Variation in Economics. We had 146 teams perform the same research three times, each time with less freedom. What source of freedom leads to different choices and results? papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Paper: lucymsall.github.io/research_pap...

Excellent talk today by Ole-Andreas Næss @ole-andreas.bsky.social in the Frisch/UiOEcon seminar series: "Never-Realized Capital Gains" (w/Lucy Msall) – The very rich often postpone capital gains tax for years and even generations.
Pic: Sporty presenter joined for a run right before the talk!

www.frisch.uio.no/om-oss/arran...

@oysteinhernaes.bsky.social
Our Economics Workshop on Marginalized Children and Long-term Outcomes in Oslo just concluded – lots of great presentations and discussions! (Program in thread) Pictured is Joe Doyle giving excellent keynote on “burning questions” in economics of foster care #EconSky📉📈

The website still says December 2

Alle skal med

On the train with @fiva.no to the 46th Annual Meeting of the Norwegian Association of Economists (Forskermøtet). Let us know if you want to join for an easy run/a beer in Trondheim tonight! #EconSky @finseraas.bsky.social @colinpgreen.bsky.social @astridsandsor.bsky.social @simongalle.bsky.social

119/ A starter pack of Economists and more in Norway from @oeysteinhernaes.bsky.social

bsky.app/profile/oeys...

Made a starter pack on Economists (and related) in Norway: go.bsky.app/SaEqpCs
Let me know if you want to be added to the list.

Inspired by @jansauermann.bsky.social and @hhsievertsen.bsky.social with the Swedish and Danish lists and the thread by @ginapieters.bsky.social
#EconSky 📉📈

👋

📢One week left to submit to our workshop on children in Oslo in January 2025! 📈📉#Econsky

Call for papers Economics workshop on Marginalized children and long term outcomes.

📢Call for papers for the Economics Workshop on Marginalized Children and Long-term Outcomes, Oslo January 30-31, 2025! Child welfare/protective services of particular interest. Keynote lecture by Joe Doyle+contributed sessions.🗓️Submit paper/ext abst by Nov 1, 2024. #Econsky

Many applied economists would have learned it from Mostly harmless (Angrist & Pischke), section 3.2.3 Bad control. There, they refer to Griliches and Mason (1972), Chamberlain (1977, 1978), Rosenbaum (1984).

A treat to have Michael Knaus @mcknaus.bsky.social visiting the Frisch Centre this week! Educational and inspiring material, and a super nice guy. Check out his research mcknaus.github.io and his excellent and open causal machine learning teaching material: github.com/MCKnaus/caus... #EconSky 📉📈

The weekend starts here!

EJ Data Editor is happy: