@afarrand.bsky.social
MENA energy analyst | author of The Algerian Dream | American abroad
NYT reports that senior Iranian leaders are debating who will stand as “the Delcy of Iran” if the Supreme Leader is taken out.
Did they miss the part where Delcy spent months back-channeling with the White House to ensure her survival when Maduro fell? A curious model to follow!
100%. But instead he's doubling down on uncertainty. Businesses won't lower prices and may even raise them further to increase their buffer.
The result? More inflation ahead of the midterms.
100%. But instead he's doubling down on uncertainty. Businesses won't lower prices and may even raise them further to increase their buffer.
The result? More inflation ahead of the midterms.
He was a worse analyst than a president but sure did a lot less damage shilling wrong takes from the cheap seats than he has as POTUS
22.02.2026 13:46 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Wall Street will also have to grapple with the uncertainty. Monday morning will be interesting.
But the broader econ outlook is clearly inflationary. Amid uncertainty, businesses won't lower prices and may even raise them to increase buffer. Prices will keep rising ahead of midterms...
Curious to see the Iranian senior leadership pondering who should play "the Delcy of Iran" as if that's a positive thing.
22.02.2026 13:15 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0"I wondered what, with his ingenuity and energy, he would be capable of in peacetime. Russia’s war — a war for the return to an imperial past — has always been a war against Ukraine’s future."
Poignant reporting on the toll of 4 years of war, from @mashagessen.bsky.social:
RT Robert Pape: "This represents 40-50% of the deployable US air power in the world. Think air power on the order of the 1991 and 2003 Iraq war. And growing.
Never has the US deployed this much force against a potential enemy and not launched strikes."
Catch and kill
22.02.2026 02:50 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0It was a catch and kill
22.02.2026 02:50 — 👍 45 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
"the blackout also reshaped who could speak for Iranians abroad. With people inside the country cut off, a familiar constellation of regime defenders and state-aligned commentators stepped into the vacuum, influencing how the uprising was interpreted internationally."
21.02.2026 21:23 — 👍 13 🔁 10 💬 1 📌 0
Let me get this straight:
🔹Trump tells the EU to build up its own defences
🔹Trump threatens the EU repeatedly and signals unreliability as a defence partner
🔹Now Trump is upset the EU wants a buy-EU defence policy to build local manufacturing?
What did you expect to happen??
SCOTUS Tariff Ruling to Ease Solar Prices, as even GOP Voters Boost Sun Power
21.02.2026 07:26 — 👍 8 🔁 6 💬 0 📌 0
Libyan PM Dabaiba hospitalized a month after reportedly suffering a heart attack. This will raise worries about shaky leadership in Tripoli.
20.02.2026 18:19 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0You do NOT have to hand it to John Roberts
20.02.2026 15:59 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Probably because Iran doesn't have 60 or more warheads
20.02.2026 15:58 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0But if it happens, this will nonetheless reshape his legacy in the US and world.
It will also raise a question: How did morally decent US leaders like Obama and Biden fail to achieve this? (Just circumstances and timing? Or too constrained by norms and sense of what's possible?)
Some necessary qualifiers:
Trump remains an awful person and leader whose actions have also harmed millions.
He will have done all this while coddling horrible regimes elsewhere (Russia, Israel, the Gulf, Hungary, etc).
There is no guarantee that what comes next in those places will be better.
We may very soon need to grapple with the fact that Donald Trump's actions have led to the collapse of dictatorial regimes in Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran.
20.02.2026 14:24 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0Yes.
And it was Better Than All This, importantly.
Me, a U.S. citizen watching another country’s judiciary weigh capital punishment for a president who tried to overthrow the state:
19.02.2026 07:07 — 👍 798 🔁 148 💬 8 📌 7European and Arab states should not buy what Trump is selling.
Instead, they should work together to develop and fund an alternative positive vision for Gaza’s future that ensures Palestinian political sovereignty and territorial unity remain at the forefront of rebuilding.
In coming years, more net energy importers (esp landlocked ones) will follow suit. This means:
🟢 EV demand will rise, oil demand will fall.
🟢 Greater electrification will mean robust demand for natgas and renewables.
🟢 China will rise, and oil and gas producers (previously in sync) will split.
"'I felt betrayed, naked,' she told me. 'The entire world was reading something that was mine.' Arbane’s relatives told me that her mental health deteriorated after the book came out. Daoud 'slit her throat a second time', a relative said."
A nuanced take on yet another Algerian tragedy:
Authoritarians, strongmen and dictators: who is on Trump’s Board of Peace? www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
19.02.2026 08:20 — 👍 169 🔁 77 💬 22 📌 8
Super-interesting story by my colleagues on why EVs are taking off in Ethiopia (gift link)
18.02.2026 18:33 — 👍 27 🔁 15 💬 0 📌 1
The Brazilian political system is, structurally, very similar to the American one. But when they elected a Trump-style authoritarian back in 2018, their Congress and Supreme Court actually fought back.
I went to Brazil to find out why. And what I learned surprised me.
www.vox.com/politics/479...
Two conclusions:
"First, the countries that rely most on aid appear least able to mount timely, visible sovereign responses."
"Second, the response signal is heavily skewed toward health, while education and other long-run investments are largely missing from the reaction frame."
