Thomas Henning

Just general parties. The decrease in drinking and drugs is good. But is the trade off decrease in social engagement outweighing it? Maybe.

It’s leading to a societal backswing on progressive policies.

That’s a wrap for #SNE2025! Grateful for the chance to share some of our recent work as a spotlight this year and thankful to the society for supporting me as one of this year’s travel award winners along with @gloriawfeng.bsky.social, @jaehyungwoo.bsky.social, Laura Globig, and Minho Hwang)!

We deserved honor for a great scientist. Congratulations!

Very interesting. I am curious how does framework this explain that we see predictive coding effects in domains like Finance, which doesn’t really have space.

Good luck!

Can Trump fire Cook? Part 2 in a series on the Trump Administration's efforts to remove sitting central bankers

If Cook had done the very same thing in 2023, after her public service began, it still would not be obvious to me that an error on a mortgage application would constitute “cause” for these purposes. Would a traffic violation? An adverse finding on a tax audit?

open.substack.com/pub/petercon...

To raise fertility rates, it’s not women who need to step up — it’s men New research found that countries where men do more housework and child care have higher fertility rates.

A new paper by Nobel Prize-winning economist Claudia Goldin has found that countries where men take on more of the household labor and child care — in other words, those who buck traditionalism’s standards of the provider husband and homemaker wife — have higher fertility rates.

Why is dollar cost averaging so popular. It makes no sense. EV in the market is highest right now!

Unless you believe in market timing (you shouldnt unless you sit in a big Bank/HF and have access to all “public wink wink” data, you should invest what you plan to DCA right away! With few exceptions

While it seems to take humans years of deliberate practice to become more skeptical, I wonder what it would take for LLMs to encode the idea that effects between things are often small and non-existent; and frankly even regardless of whether they’re published in a fancy journal.

As any researcher can probably tell you (due to the painstaking PhD process) this is like the exact opposite of reality!

And yet most humans likely also default to assuming there is an effect!

Pattern seeking brain, pattern seeking LLM? Curious where this bias comes from in both humans and LLMs

Becoming increasingly clear to me that LLM have an “effect bias”. When you ask about the relationship between two things, it defaults to stating there is some relationship (regardless of truth) much more often than stating there is no relationship.

Coinciding with many less applicants from students abroad. To see what was once one of America’s greatest institutions in such disrepair is beyond disheartening.

Not sure what the solutions are, if any exist on how we can ever truly recover.

Hearing many American students are now looking abroad for grad school, something never really seen in prior years.

We are watching a brain drain from our country in real time; what an unforced error that will have generationally long reprecussions.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the best defensive lineman in the world players power forward for the New Orleans Pelicans.

Thinking back on Julius Peppers career and contrasting it with Williamson; does Peppers focus on basketball full time with today’s NBA salaries?

Incentives matter!

Booo

This was the first year where I had been able to see the class of undergraduates throughout their entire Caltech career. Seeing the result of their growth both academically and personally puts the value of academia into perspective.

At the end of the day this is what it’s about!

Every year I get more and more teary eyed during commencement. Seeing the culmination of years of work done by your bf colleagues and mentees (and mentors) is a deeply moving feeling.

So proud of the entire Caltech class of 2025 both graduates and undergraduates!

I enjoy reveling in smugness for being part of the “nothing ever happens” commission

Personally I have a new idea on how to preprocess some data for a few regressions I’m running. High hopes!

I’m sure nothings going on globally that would take my attention from that

Anything interesting going on today?

We’re fixing Atlantic Avenue! This is what a comprehensive community-led rezoning looks like 🏠

Flying into LA after traveling is always depressing; LA should be one of the greatest cities on the planet and instead it’s a destitute suburb.

America needs to revitalize and modernize our cities, it’s embarrassing.

We also find that “out of the box” LLMs are not good proxies for human behavior and caution against using LLMs as pilots or proxies for humans in experimental finance settings.

Giving a poster presentation Sunday at the Financial AI workshop @ ICLR! Check out the work and give me your suggestions!

We find that LLMs (we test 6 models) tend to trade around fundamental value in a fixed FV experimental market; compared to humans who generally create bubbles!

Thank you! Still working on kinks so let me know if you have any suggestions!

On my reading list (by @thomashenning.bsky.social). Very interesting.

AI as an Operating System? 🖥️ AI evolves from standalone product to operating system: Insights into transformative tech trends, emerging AI companies, and the shifting landscape of technological innovation.

Nice article written up about a working paper we just submitted!

Check it out!

www.ai-street.co/p/ai-as-an-o...

Might be able to one up him.

@thomashenning.bsky.social is neuro-decoding how we respond to real vs. AI generated images @cfcamerer.bsky.social #cfcfc 2/10