Dr Colin Jacobs

@misterabk.bsky.social @eleanormorton.bsky.social‬ I really enjoyed the second episode of "Eleanor and Alasdair Talk about Colins." As a member of the Colin community, I think I speak for all of us when I say it's high time this topic was explored in detail in podcast form.

@misterabk.bsky.social "The Colins are going into the West." Classic! This will be the theme of my 50th birthday.

Last PoliCast before the poll. Majority Government is back on the menu, boys!

poliq.au/2025/04/30/p...

#auspol

Is it a binary copy of the original font, or a clone? Because fonts can't be copyrighted. Only the 'software' can - the look and feel is fair game.

A gauge showing 77/100

Labor do have some momentum on their side. Since last week the PoliCast Hung-o-meter has dropped from 95% chance of a minority government to 77%. poliq.au/2025/04/23/p... #auspol

There's also the fact that if the polls are reported honestly, they have significant error, so there should be outliers regularly. For this reason, the polls are always weighted over time, so we'll need a couple more strong polls before we and the model start to "believe" it.

A gauge showing a 95% chance of minority government.

Looking at our model for the upcoming federal election, minority government is all but a certainty. We're able to quantify it based on the current polls: 95%!

See poliq.au/2025/04/07/p... for details of @samvaughan.bsky.social 's great work on this. #auspol

No, although we have done some MRP, I only trust it with access to lots of polling data (of course with the individual responses). We're going the other route, a Bayesian framework propagating the poll results down to a lower level and back to the seats and parliament (with uncertainties).

Yeah, I wasnt clear. That image is out projection. The dashed line is 2022.

Redbridge has the Greens primary in Wills at 25% even accounting for the redistribution. I don't see it either statistically or on the ground. (See for instance www.instagram.com/p/DDNeY4IT1B...)

Deaking for comparison - Libs looking safe, not ahead as strongly though.

Thanks to @samvaughan.bsky.social for the good work here!

A few surprises in Redbridge's latest data. We'll release our model in the next week along with a prediction for the next parliament, but our results diverge a bit, especially in Victoria. It's hard to see the Greens going backwards in Wills, we have them significantly ahead:

#auspol

But I need to know the percentage of people aged 35-40 in a particular SA1! Stat!

It's hard to blame Biden. Given the upcoming debauchery of the presidency, why not? What principle would he be upholding that isn't about to be burned and trampled?

Our poll tracker shows the ALP and Coalition in a statistical dead heat. The momentum is not in the government's favour. This may increase the odds of an early election. The Ides of March! #auspol poliq.au/2024/12/03/w...

Political nerds: Have a play with my Prahran by-election simulator, and tell me what you think a realistic outcome is. prahran-byelection.streamlit.app #vicpol #prahran

Radio astronomy is rapidly becoming a legitimate science. Keep pushing!

The Greens have lost an MP in Prahran who took it from a margin of 30 votes to a safe seat. Can the Liberals reclaim it? I don't think so. poliq.au/2024/11/29/h... #auspol #vicpol #prahran

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