Francisco Peiró 🇪🇺

Drop it man. It is “the other place”
Great to see you here !! Facciamo un cafe a BXL 🙂

Particularly good interview (excuse the blowing of our own EU trumpet)… especially on the tetradent approach of: 1. open to negotiation, 2. maintain vigilance, 3. develop new partnerships, 4. focus on internal (market) reform. Title belittles the depth of the conversation.

Comment in an FT article today:
“Bond market smells blood too now. When anything Trump does looks unsustainable, everyone knows what the trade is. He will be whipped by the bond market until he starts behaving. Could be quite a thrashing.”
The return of the all-powerful Bond Market of yesteryear 👹 ?

Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose Beijing has escalation dominance in the U.S.-Chinese tariff fight.

Not sure I agree with all of it, but the gist is clear enough. “An economic Vietnam War”… cannot be a lot more damning than that. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

🇺🇸- 🇨🇳 meet on the other side of the Leffer curve 📈📉

Alphaville is always good value for 💵 - this one is free - in this polycrisis I think the slogan should be “It’s the T-Bill - moron”

Surprising how events evolve if you stick around long enough… how many economic commentators would have bet 10-1 on this (at the time of Greece’s failure to pay its IMF dues on 30 June 2015)?
Wonder what bet we should have made today looking back from 2035…

Surprisingly good trend on CO2 reduction from a larg(ish) country

Investors dare to imagine a world beyond the dollar The US could dismantle its own exorbitant privilege by pushing the big bond market beasts into the arms of others

on.ft.com/4iHtsH1
Well, well, EU defence bonds = kickstart real EU bond market = sucking sound for UST. What a cunning plan...

Sins of the Father The United States is joining the ranks of patrimonial states. It’s nothing short of a revolution.

open.substack.com/pub/persuasi...
USA as a Patrimonial State. Interesting political theory take explaining the “Trump way” of doing things.
Nothing new, just surprising for the 🇺🇸 to take this fork in the road 1/4 of the way into the 21st century…

This is really really good. Ok, in French (EN subtitles) but direct,
clear and stating the obvious (which few politicians are ready to do quite so well currently). Highly recommended for 🇪🇺&🇺🇸

Nice and efficient summary of DOGE to date 🤦🏻

Porque ? Mira a Polonia o los Bálticos. Prefieres rearmar o que te puedan invadir directamente ?
Si vis pacem, para bellum.

At least some silver in the dark clouds…

What Europe Should Have Done To Prepare For With Trump Published Exactly 18 months ago

Surprising (or perhaps not really) how some commentators can be so prescient - written 18 months ago. Applies word for word to today. Just more so
open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Live updates: Trump cancels news conference with Zelensky after contentious Oval Office meeting The latest news on President Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the new Congress.

'A senior Kremlin official told me yesterday that even Moscow is surprised by President Donald Trump; that they had expected change, but not “such tremendous change.”' www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Ukraine is Europe!
We stand by Ukraine.

We will step up our support to Ukraine so that they can continue to fight back the agressor.

Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.

Highly relevant right now. Of course all dependent on results tomorrow and events over the rest of 2025. But a Mittel/Nord-Europa security scenario trumping (caused by) Franco-Italian resistance to realism seems a real alternative for the 2020s

Double speed: What Merz and a German right-turn would mean for Europe Friedrich Merz is on the precipice of becoming Germany’s next chancellor. If successful, his conservatism and quest for new allies to secure Europe’s nuclear deterrent could create a “two-speed Europe...

Double speed: What Merz and a German right-turn would mean for Europe: ecfr.eu/article/doub...

Iron & Blood (completely wrong title) is a masterful account of all things military in German-speaking Europe. It is incredibly readable for such a lengthy (and seemingly heavy) topic. The footnotes in themselves are amazing. Especially being a German reader.

Good for a Friday smile 😁

Chartbook 336 Trump's victory in 2024: consolidating the anti-PMC coalition. Trump’s victory was no landslide.

An interesting take by Adam Tooze of the role of the Professional Managerial Class (PMC) in explaining in part the 2024 US election open.substack.com/pub/adamtooz...

One Useful Thing | Ethan Mollick | Substack Trying to understand the implications of AI for work, education, and life. By Prof. Ethan Mollick. Click to read One Useful Thing, by Ethan Mollick, a Substack publication with hundreds of thousands o...

On the interaction between GenAI and academia (especially teaching) open.substack.com/pub/oneusefu... Ethan Mollick has a brilliant take on Substack.

I completely agree. GenAI might make answering the questions easier but it is asking the right questions in the first place which is tricky. Of course, testing ability and creativity than just knowledge has always been tough. GenAI just makes it more obvious than it already was. Just my 2 cents…

We are all still figuring out how GenAI changes things in education, and it doesn't help that it changes them differently every six months. But our goal should be to teach students about the tools that will be available to them for the rest of their lives, not to (try to) make them fearful of them.

This a very telling graph, maybe the auto sector is not the best all end all for them after all…

Maybe the start of the tipping point…

It has a name

1&2. A bit of 3