Antoine Brault

International Workshop on Social Contacts for Epidemic Modeling
Paris, Dec 8-9, 2025

epicontacts2025.weebly.com

Dec 8: Training session on contact data for ID modeling.
Dec 9: Workshop on methodological advances in the field, featuring a strong lineup of invited speakers.

@anrs-mie.bsky.social

Modeling of Infectious Diseases In this online MOOC you will learn a basic, yet very general approach to mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics.

The recording of the MOOC Modeling of Infectious Diseases live session is now available: Pierre-Yves Boëlle and Romulus Breban answered your questions:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2D0...

This is the final week before the exam period begins:
www.fun-mooc.fr/en/courses/m...

@pasteuredu.bsky.social

This week in the MOOC on modeling of infectious diseases, we will explore compartmental models. A pivotal tool in our field !

Join us here: www.fun-mooc.fr/en/courses/m...

@pasteuredu.bsky.social

Plague in Madagascar: a new model sheds light on the seasonality of outbreaks A new model has been developed to elucidate the seasonal dynamics of plague in Madagascar. In this country, where the disease remains endemic, and most often occurs between October and March. The asso...

A new model sheds light on the seasonal dynamics of plague in Madagascar — a step toward better prevention through a One Health approach.

🔗 Read more: www.pasteur.fr/en/research-...

@scauchemez.bsky.social
@abrault.bsky.social
@fanohi.bsky.social

Modeling of Infectious Diseases In this online MOOC you will learn a basic, yet very general approach to mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics.

The MOOC “Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases” from Institut Pasteur Education starts today!

🚀 Registration is free: www.fun-mooc.fr/en/courses/m...

@pasteuredu.bsky.social

Patterns of Emergence and Circulation of West Nile Virus in Algeria In recent years, many countries have experienced increased outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, such as West Nile virus (WNV). WNV is transmitted to humans by Culex mosqu...

Our pre-print on West Nile virus in Algeria 🇩🇿 is now available online. Nice collab between two members of the Pasteur Network. Check it out here: sciety.org/articles/act...

Modeling of Infectious Diseases In this online MOOC you will learn a basic, yet very general approach to mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics.

Join the MOOC “Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases” from @pasteuredu.bsky.social and learn to:

• Estimate R₀
• Build SIR models
• Simulate the impact of interventions

🚀 Enroll now for free: www.fun-mooc.fr/en/courses/m...

📅 Course starts Sept 2.

We're recruiting a postdoc in our lab @mesurs-cnam.bsky.social (Paris) to work on epidemic modelling over healthcare networks, as part of the EU project ARCANE ! 💻🦠
Start date between 09/25-01/26, 2y contract

Interested in AMR, healthcare-related research & mathematical modelling? Find out more! ⬇️

Led by @fanohi.bsky.social, and co-supervised by @scauchemez.bsky.social, this study is the result of a fruitful collaboration between Institut Pasteur Madagascar and @pasteur.fr.

Impact of the control of rat and flea populations on the number of human plague cases. The figures show the proportion of human cases averted over one season (July 1 to June 30) as a function of the month of intervention when (A) only rats are targeted, (B) only fleas are targeted, and (C) both rats and the fleas on those rats are simultaneously targeted. Reduction levels are represented by gray dots (20% population reduction), red triangles (50% population reduction), and yellow rectangles (80% population reduction). Vertical bars indicate the 95% credible intervals.

Finally, we evaluated intervention strategies and found that targeting both rats and their fleas at the start of the epidemic season (July–Sep) was the most effective way for reducing human plague cases. This proactive strategy contrasts with the reactive measures currently used in Madagascar.

Plague epidemic in the rat population. (A) Effective reproduction number (Re) among rats, with the blue solid line showing the estimated Re over time, and the black dashed horizontal line representing the epidemic threshold (Re = 1). (B) Cumulative proportion of infected rats throughout a plague season from July 1 to June 30, assuming a probability of death upon infection of 0.3 (green dashed line), 0.5 (blue solid line, representing the baseline scenario), and 0.7 (red dashed line).

We estimated that the rat-to-rat reproduction number peaks at 1.45 (95%CI: 1.41, 1.48) in Oct., whereas human cases peak in Dec.–Jan. Only 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2%, 0.9%) of rats are infected each season, suggesting that plague is not the main driver of rat population changes.

Model calibration. Comparison of data and model predictions for (A) the number of collected fleas, (B) the number of collected rats, (C) the number of collected plague seropositive rats, (D) the flea index (mean number of fleas per rat), (E) average monthly number of confirmed human plague cases between 2018 and 2023. For Figures A–D, black dots represent the median values of data aggregated temporally proximate capture days, with vertical lines indicating the range between the minimum and the maximum of observed values across those days. For Figure E, black dots represent the monthly average number of confirmed human plague cases in the data. The models include no seasonality (Model 1 – purple), seasonality in the rat population (Model 2 – yellow), seasonality in the flea population (Model 3 – green), seasonality in both rat and flea populations (Model 4 – red), and mass-action model with seasonality in both rat and flea populations (Model 5 – blue).

Models that incorporated seasonal fluctuations in rat and flea populations performed better than those that did not, indicating that rat and flea population dynamics are key drivers of human plague outbreaks.

Plague transmission cycle that shows the interactions between rats, vector fleas, and humans. The cycle includes susceptible rats infested with uninfected fleas; rats infected by infected fleas; rats that die from plague, releasing infected fleas into the environment; and recovered rats, from which infected fleas die off, though infestation by fleas (infected or uninfected) may persist.

Map highlighting the regions of Madagascar where plague is endemic (dotted outlines). The study site in the Ankazobe District is marked in yellow.

Plague is usually transmitted to humans by bites from fleas that live on rats. From Dec 2018 to Jun 2020, rats were trapped in plague foci, fleas counted, and rats tested for plague antibodies. We built 5 rat–flea–human transmission models and fitted them to our field data and to human cases.

Plague remains a health issue in several parts of the world—especially in Madagascar, where epidemics follow a seasonal pattern. In our new @pnas.org paper, we link that seasonality to rat and flea dynamics and quantify the impact of various control strategies. doi.org/10.1073/pnas...

Postdoctoral positions in epidemic mathematical/statistical modelling - Research Job description We are recruiting postdocs to contribute to research projects in the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, at Institut Pasteur in Paris. The candidates will be expected t...

New postdoc positions with a number of exciting epidemic modelling projects opening in our Unit at @pasteur.fr in beautiful Paris. Deadline for applications: 26th June.
research.pasteur.fr/en/job/postd...

Evolution of social contacts patterns in France over the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: results from the SocialCov survey - BMC Infectious Diseases Background Non-pharmaceutical measures such as lockdowns, curfews and place closures were implemented in France during 2020–2022 to reduce contacts in the population, to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2...

During COVID years in France, the SocialCov survey showed major evolution and strong heterogeneities in contact patterns according to age, employment, weekend/vacation. Led by @paolobosetti.bsky.social and @lullaopatowski.bsky.social.
bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....

Patterns and drivers of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 13 Western European countries - BMC Global and Public Health Background Important differences in excess mortality between European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic have been reported. Understanding the drivers of these differences is essential to pandemic...

Our paper on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Western Europe was published today 🥳 bmcglobalpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....

During the 2023-24 RSV season, France administered ~215k doses of new monoclonal antibody nirsevimab to newborns. In LancetChildAdolescHealth, we evaluated the impact of this policy on the number of hospitalizations for RSV bronchiolitis following ER visits.
hal.science/pasteur-0450...