Chris Wlezien

Does political sophistication moderate how citizens use information to infer left-right distances between parties? Research identifies numerous factors associated with citizens’ perceptions of party ideologies, including the Left-Right orientations of parties’ election manifestos, governing coalition arrangemen...

Our paper (w/ wonderful co-authors @rwillh11.bsky.social, @simonweschle.bsky.social, @cbwlezien.bsky.social, and Jim Adams) is now out in print! 🎉 May be of interest to those studying electoral behavior, party strategy, or how citizens use information!

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Inside Viktor Orbán’s Failure to Achieve His Demographic Goal - VSquare.org The Prime Minister has long said that he would like to grow the population of Hungary without bringing in immigrants. Recently, births have fallen, but the number of people leaving the country has als...

💥Viktor Orbán’s demographic strategy is a disaster. Over the past decade, 37.8% of Hungary’s population decline was due to emigration to other EU countries. Hungary is losing the competition to retain its own citizens while birth rates tank. Read Direkt36's in-depth article on @vsquare.bsky.social👇

Americans Recognize Nuances of Higher Ed’s Value New data shows that confidence in higher education is on the rise and most Americans, regardless of party affiliation, share a similar vision for what colleges should prioritize.

Another survey that shows a rebound in support for higher education. @cbwlezien.bsky.social
www.insidehighered.com/news/student...

Our paper (w/ @cbwlezien.bsky.social) is now in print! Perhaps of interest to survey researchers contemplating whether/how to use the DK response option when measuring the public's policy preferences. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Gallup has new polling on immigration. Topline findings:
-Americans hate Trump's immigration policy (35% approve, 62% disapprove)
-Share who say immigration is a "good thing" for the country just hit an all-time high (79%)

news.gallup.com/poll/692522/...

4 polls out today on the GOP budget bill
Post-Ipsos: 23% support/42% oppose/34% no opin
KFF: 35% favorable/64% unfave
Pew: 29% favor/49% oppose/21% not sure
Economist/YouGov: 35%-51% support-oppose
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
www.kff.org/medicaid/pol...
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

Cheers to you, Chris!

Cheers to you, ha ha!

Most Literature Reviews Miss the Point. Don’t Let Yours Critically Engaging Past Work to Confidently Shape Your Own

Most literature reviews miss the point.

Not because they’re sloppy.

But because they treat the literature like a box to tick.

In my latest Respect the Marble Post, I carve out a 6-step process to writing a meaningful lit review:

catherineeunicedevries.substack.com/p/most-liter...

🧵

Arrested in L.A. My interview with a fellow scholar who was recently arrested for participating in an anti-ICE protest

Must read. Incredible and thoughtful first-person account. Surprisingly, the most shocking part is not journalists and college professors being arrested. It’s police trapping the crowd—giving a disperse order while blocking all the exits. via @smotus.bsky.social
smotus.substack.com/p/arrested-i...

This is the type of behavior that impunity creates. It has always existed within law enforcement, but is strengthened when political leaders encourage and protect it and the state doesn't hold the perpetrators (order-givers and -executioners) accountable.

LLMs may sometimes act like humans because they’ve read the social science research telling them how they’re expected to act

Thx for post(s), but wonder if the closeness is key, i.e., "closer (and less predictable)"...?

Immigration Judges Closed and Denied More Asylum Cases in March Than Any Month on Record In a record-breaking month, immigration judges fast-tracked asylum denials at a record pace, raising questions about due process, the politicization of the courts, and the future of the asylum system.

In a record-breaking month, immigration judges fast-tracked asylum denials at a record pace, raising questions about due process, the politicization of the courts, and the future of the asylum system.
(Via the indispensable @austinkocher.com)

austinkocher.substack.com/p/immigratio...

Hi and thx, and sorry for delay in response; graduation weekend here. Could see thermostatic public response in preferences for more/less policy/spending, but that doesn't happen magically, of course. Not sure that's the focus of the question about "approval;" let me know, ok?

So he's... defunding the police?

Neither the Court nor the parties question the Executive Branch's authority and responsibility to enforce federal laws and, along with local law enforcement agencies, to protect 1 / 36 Case 1:25-cv-00072 Document 58 Filed on 05/01/25 in TXSD Page 2 of 36 the nation's population. Neither the Court nor the parties question that the Executive Branch can direct the detention and removal of aliens who engage in criminal activity in the United States. The Executive Branch has and will continue to rely on the Immigration and Nationality Act to remove aliens found to represent a danger to the country. The question that this lawsuit presents is whether the President can utilize a specific statute, the AEA, to detain and remove Venezuelan aliens who are members of TdA. As to that question, the historical record renders clear that the President's invocation of the AEA through the Proclamation exceeds the scope of the statute and is contrary to the plain, ordinary meaning of the statute's terms. As a result, the Court concludes that as a matter of law, the Executive Branch cannot rely on the AEA, based on the Proclamation, to detain the Named Petitioners and the certified class, or to remove them from the country.'

Case 1:25-cv-00072 Document 59 Filed on 05/01/25 in TXSD Page 1 of 1 UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF TEXAS BROWNSVILLE DIVISION ENTERED May 01, 2025 Nathan Ochsner, Clerk J.A.V., et al., Petitioners, son con con VS. CIVIL ACTION NO. 1:25-CV-072 DONALD J. TRUMP, et al., Respondents. FINAL JUDGMENT AND PERMANENT INJUNCTION In accordance with the Court's Order and Opinion granting class certification (Doc. 57) and its Order and Opinion granting summary judgment (Doc. 58), the Court enters final judgment in favor of Petitioners J.A.V., J.G.G., W.G.H., and the members of the certified class. Accordingly, it is: ORDERED that the Class Petition for Writ of Habeas Corpus (Doc. 1) is GRANTED; and ORDERED that Respondents are permanently enjoined from detaining, transferring, or removing J.A.V., J.G.G., W.G.H., and the members of the certified class, under the Alien Enemies Act, 50 U.S.C. § 21, and based on the Presidential Proclamation, "Invocation of the Alien Enemies Act Regarding the Invasion of the United States by Tren de Aragua," 90 Fed. Reg. 13033. This permanent injunction does not prohibit Respondents from proceeding with removal proceedings or otherwise acting against J.A.V., J.G.G., W.G.H., and the members of the certified class, based on the Immigration and Nationality Act, including under any final order of removal. This Final Judgment and Permanent Injunction does not enjoin Respondent Donald Trump in his official duties as President of the United States. See Franklin v. Massachusetts, 505 U.S. 788, 802 (1992). Signed on May 1, 2025. 1/1 Femendo Rodiguez, Ja. Fernando Rodriguez, Jr. United States District Judge

BREAKING: Federal judge finds that Trump exceeded his authority in his Alien Enemies Act proclamation addressing alleged members of Tren de Aragua, issuing a permanent injunction barring AEA proclamation-based removals from the Southern District of Texas.

David is absolutely right. If I may add: a nostalgic fantasy about a time that never existed. Even 100 years ago socialist parties could not win majorities against liberals and progressives. A siginifcant share of workers always supported the right and this coalition was necessary and successful.

Trump’s complete control over policy may be leading to actions the public – and his supporters – don’t want write @jackmaedgen.bsky.social, @snsoroka.bsky.social and @cbwlezien.bsky.social

blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/20...

Wrecking the economy is easier than it looks?

Maybe, but this is moving off the thread I joined about public reactions and promises, and now back to day job; thx!

To me, those who "float," per Zaller, or could do, and sure looks like prices and immigration mattered to them, at least some/many of them, not that they're all or most of what matters to politicians!

Get that and might be right, but also may be that the average voter just was looking for more reliable border control. Could be testable, yes?!

Thx David and agree, but are those promises the reason(s) he won?

Yes, but interesting variation across issues...

And now, a note on Bill Owens who, until this past week, was the executive producer of 60 Minutes.

We’ll be back next week with another edition of 60 Minutes.

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Matt, this is very cool and helpful re: comparative work Matt Grossmann, Tim Hellwig, and I are discussing, building some on an earlier article on US pres elections, which finds that policy action helps "explain" cost of ruling effects. Here's link, fyi: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1....

Thx and there's a lot going on underneath the hood to be sure, and we've taken only a few steps forward, i.e., there's a lot more to do! *Please* let me know what you think about the co-variation between public opinion (and electoral) change and policy change across time, issues, and countries, ok?

Hi and thx for this Jonathan, and sorry for response lag, but just learned about this exchange, and am happy to send along something (with UT grad student Eric Kim) on subject that might interest. Reflects some aspects from earlier research but is more encompassing, I think, hopefully comprehensive!

A Thermostatic Model of Congressional Elections - Matt Grossmann, Christopher Wlezien, 2024 Are policymakers rewarded in elections when they succeed in moving public policy in their ideological direction? Or do they face a thermostatic backlash, as cit...

Hi and thx for this, which I *just* learned about -- sorry for delay! You're right that we had limited N, but it does cover over 70 years and results appear to be highly robust during that timespan. Here's link for any readers who might be interested:

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/....