Metaculus

Our new Bright Line Watch forecasting Q on Metaculus is up: forecasters expect non-routine military or federalized National Guard deployments to four large metro areas by 11/3/26 www.metaculus.com/questions/38...

Really cannot hold comparison to metaculus comments, real alpha there

Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, and the AI Futures team wrote AI 2027, a detailed scenario predicting an intelligence explosion and US-China AI arms race.

How credible is the scenario? Share your predictions on their key claims in our new series: metaculus.com/tournament/a...

Compete in the Metaculus Cup 🏆

• $5,000 prize pool for accurate predictions & high-quality comments that convince others
• Level up your forecasting skills
• Build your reputation
• New topical questions each week

Get started:
metaculus.com/tournament/m...

Join us in forecasting these critical questions. Your predictions matter now more than ever.

Explore all questions and compete here:
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...

Special thanks to @brendannyhan.bsky.social and our partners at Bright Line Watch for their question contributions.

📈 Current community predictions on key questions:

Effective US tariff rate at end of 2026: 9.7%
Federal judge impeached by Republican Representatives before 2027: 20% probability
Party with House plurality after 2026 midterms: Democrats 78%, Republicans 21.9%

Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?
www.metaculus.com/questions/37...

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Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for President of the United States?
www.metaculus.com/questions/37...

Featured new questions:

Will the Supreme Court expand beyond 9 justices before 2029?
www.metaculus.com/questions/36...

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Will the US Supreme Court allow birthright citizenship to be restricted in 2025?
www.metaculus.com/questions/37...

This administration is implementing policies faster & more radically than even Project 2025 outlined. The POTUS Predictions Tournament helps us understand & prepare for potential scenarios as constitutional guardrails are tested.

$15k in prizes. New questions live:
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...

We also offer services where we promote questions to many forecasters or to pro forecasters, including via tournaments. If you want to explore options like these, or publishing a set of questions, we're happy to help.

Hi, click sign up on www.metaculus.com and then use the +Create button to submit a question. Questions that are submitted with the guidelines in mind are much more likely to be accepted and to publish quickly: www.metaculus.com/question-wri...

A timeline vizualising AI forecasts from @Metaculus and @ManifoldMarkets

Kiko Llaneras' Website | Journalist and Writer Kiko Llaneras' website, author of the book 'Think Clearly' and data journalist at EL PAÍS

In my book 'Think Clearly,' there is an entire chapter about the art & science of forecasting:

• The fascinating story of @Metaculus
• Ideas from two superforecasters
• And details about those rules

Here's the book ✨
thinkclearly.llaneras.es

New @metaculus.bsky.social forecasting Qs contributed by Bright Line Watch to POTUS Predictions series; $15K prize pool

-fed judge impeachment
-abnormal changes to Fed
-weaken/drop filibuster
-criminal charges vs. journos
-bounties for deportations

Forecast here:
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...

Trump's return has brought sweeping policy shifts and judicial clashes. But where supporters see reform, critics see risks to the democratic order.

Make accurate, concrete forecasts in the POTUS Predictions tournament to cut through the noise. $15k prize pool.
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...

KEEPING AN EYE ON H5N1
19%(95%CI: 12%-26%) of Metaculus forecasters say human-to-human transmission will occur, in spite of the obsrevation that H5N1 is mildly zoonotic but not thought communicable between humans--right now. Pigs might assist in a reassortment to change this communicability.

🔮 ¿Crees que puedes predecir 2025? 🔮

Quedan 24h para participar en nuestro torneo de predicciones #Metaculus.

¡Hay 5.000 dólares en premios!

Descubre cómo participar👇

Oh, I should include a Thank you Metaculus for the opportunity to help the world by forecasting and giving my point of view to help the world by give good data on each issue I forecast on.
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Brian H.

How capable will top AI models be in 2025?

Forecast:
• LLM agents' autonomous replication & adaptation (ARA) abilities
• model performance on benchmarks like GPQA & GAIA

— in AI Benchmarks, a collaboration with the AI Safety Student Team at Harvard: metaculus.com/project/3054/

Will we see:

• An IAEA-like international regulator for AI?
• Drexler-style nanotech proven feasible?
• Leading AI models evaluated by METR?

Forecast in the Future of AI series, based on key uncertainties identified by Arb Research.

Start here: www.metaculus.com/project/2907/

Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? The aggregate of 54 Metaculus community forecasters was 30% on Feb 26, 2024.

Building new nuclear power in the US is incredibly challenging, and Plant Vogtle's Unit 3 is the first new reactor in 30+ years.

When Unit 4 goes online, Vogtle Plant will be the largest nuclear power station in the US.

Will it start operating this May? metaculus.com/questions/19...

Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? The aggregate of 104 Metaculus community forecasters was 43% on Feb 23, 2024.

Israel stated it will extend ground operations into Rafah unless Hamas releases captives before Ramadan.

Will Israel expand its ground invasion by March 12?
The aggregate forecast dropped to 43% this week. metaculus.com/questions/21...

Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? The aggregate of 147 Metaculus community forecasters was 90% on Feb 22, 2024.

Hungary stalled Sweden's NATO membership vote for more than 18 months, but Orbán's party now plans to vote on the ratification Monday.

Will Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1st?

The Community Prediction is currently 90% www.metaculus.com/questions/21...

Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? Showing the aggregate of 38 community forecasts as of Feb 21, 2024.

"Today, deepfakes often involve sexual imagery, fraud, or political disinformation. Since AI is progressing rapidly and making deepfakes much easier to create, safeguards are needed" —today's open letter: openletter.net/l/disrupting...

Will the US restrict deepfakes? metaculus.com/questions/21...

🗳️ Which candidate will win Super Tuesday?
🥇 What country will lead the Summer Olympics medal table?

Metaculus is launching multiple choice questions: Forecast likelihoods across outcomes & automatically ensure probabilities sum to 100%.

Learn more & get started:
www.metaculus.com/questions/20...

FluSight Challenge 2023/24

...and with Dr. Shaun Truelove, Assistant Scientist in the International Health and Epidemiology Departments in the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Learn more about Metaculus's FluSight Challenge & contribute your insights here:
www.metaculus.com/tournament/f... (4/4)

We're also excited to begin collaborating with
Dr. Maia Majumder, Assistant Professor in the Computational Health Informatics Program at Boston Children’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School... (3/4)

This year, the CDC and the CSTE invited only a select set of forecasting teams to participate in this important initiative. We're proud to have the Metaculus community again join forces with Dr. Thomas McAndrew, who leads Lehigh's Computational Uncertainty Lab. (2/4)

We've launched our 3rd annual FluSight Challenge, delivering forecasts to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with returning partner Lehigh University! Your predictions can help public health officials combat the spread of influenza: www.metaculus.com/tournament/f...

$5K in prizes (1/4)