Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸

August 1, 2025 AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION Committee on Economic Statistics and Committee on Government Relations Statement from the American Economic Association on the Dismissal of the BLS Commissioner Leaders of the American Economic Association express their grave concern over the dismissal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier today. The independence of the federal statistical agencies is essential to the proper functioning of a modern economy. Accurate, timely, and impartial statistics are the foundation upon which households, businesses, and policymakers make critical decisions. Undermining the independence or credibility of these agencies threatens the integrity of the information that markets, institutions, and the public rely on every day. Measuring the vast and dynamic U.S. economy in real time is inherently challenging. It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as more complete and higher-quality data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor-not failure or bias. The BLS has long had a well-deserved reputation for professional excellence and nonpartisan integrity. Safeguarding this tradition is vital for the continued health of the U.S. economy and public trust in our institutions. We call upon elected officials to respect and preserve the independence of the nation's statistical infrastructure. Lawrence Katz President, American Economic Association Katharine Abraham President-Elect, American Economic Association Karen Dynan Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Economic Statistics Kenneth Troske Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Government Relations

Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing

As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements

This is a big deal

❓Why do the Nordics & Dutch speak English so much better than the Germans, Italians & French?

➡️ New Working Paper:

Out-of-School Learning: Subtitling vs. Dubbing and the Acquisition of Foreign-Language Skills
w/ F. Baumeister & E. Hanushek

www.nber.org/papers/w33984

A 🧵 1/12

Realistically, either A.I. solves this for posters or it doesn’t get solved. Almost nobody gonna put effort into it.

I greatly respect your work but I disagree.

When normal people disagree with the scientific consensus it’s mostly because they don’t care much about the topic, or worse, because they don’t trust scientists.

Matt, I have to disagree with the gist of this.

The problem of academics overclaiming and overgeneralizing from their work is serious and confuses the public (and even other academics).

Window Heat Pumps Could Change the Game A new report from the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy has some exciting data for anyone attempting to retrofit a multifamily building.

NYC experimented with new window heat pump models in some public housing units. in winter, "The window unit-heated apartments used a whopping 87% less energy than the rest of the building’s steam-heated apartments did, cutting energy costs per household in half."

heatmap.news/sustainabili...

Preventing fraud is best but bigger penalties would help too. At a certain level it should be literally criminal.

Happy Fête de la Fédération to those who celebrate! @franceculture.fr

Alex Cohen on X: "Do effect sizes/standard errors from econ studies predict future results? This paper finds they often don’t (CIs don’t contain future results) unless we allow for real diffs across studies (ie, low external validity). Requires assumptions but cool mix of empirical approaches. https://t.co/JURGQLCOty" / X Do effect sizes/standard errors from econ studies predict future results? This paper finds they often don’t (CIs don’t contain future results) unless we allow for real diffs across studies (ie, low external validity). Requires assumptions but cool mix of empirical approaches. https://t.co/JURGQLCOty

See link to paper in this thread x.com/alexwcohen/s...

Even social scientists that "get it" mostly abide by a norm against forecasting.

Including subjective probabilistic forecasts in serious scholarship might receive pushback from reviewers or editors even though it would help readers interpret research implications.

Most social scientists have never reflected on the epistemic virtues of forecasting.

I wonder what you mean by “we” and “allowed” … there was a resistance, both obvious and invisible. And those resisting were themselves diverse and sometimes in sharp disagreement about strategy.

Better late than never!

My chart on the history of three infectious diseases — smallpox, polio, and measles — before and after a vaccine was available.

I’d be grateful if you or anyone reading has suggestions for any sociologists of science who did interesting work on the pandemic and it’s science.

Anyone other than Zeynep that is!

NYC mayor race needs conditional prediction markets:

If [Mamdani / Cuomo] wins,
what results in 2026-2027?
- new housing starts
- population growth
- high net worth population change
- rent change
- student test scores
- crime
- police budget

@manifoldmarkets.bsky.social @metaculus.bsky.social

Great New Yorker story on the development of a new non-opioid painkiller www.newyorker.com/magazine/20...

Should we deport people who have lived here for many years without committing any crimes? 61% no, 24% yes.

Should we should deport people as quickly as possible even if it means more mistakes, or do our best to make no mistakes even if it takes longer?

Quickly: 19%
Minimize mistakes: 74%

© CBC/Radio-Canada 2025. All rights reserved.

Learn about Canada’s movement to delay kids’ smartphone adoption #UnpluggedCanada @alexmunter.bsky.social www.cbc.ca/listen/live-...

BREAKING: Overwhelming support for letting doctors and nurses move freely around the country to care for Canadians:
angusreid.org/interprovinc...
#CDNpoli #CDNhealth

I agree with @kateadamala.bsky.social
Don’t make mirror life.

Great conversation with @nathanlabenz.bsky.social

pca.st/episode/46dea5…

The amazing thing is how fast the cost of serving the same quality model is falling.

Impressive algorithmic and hardware improvements.

Rapid Response Bridge Funding Program In the face of recent abrupt shifts in federal funding for education research, including large-scale terminations of National Science Foundation (NSF) research grant awards, we have developed a rap...

Very smart, high ROI initiative from the Spencer Foundation.

Providing bridge funding for canceled NSF grants:

1) directs funds to projects already screened by a top-noch review process.
2) avoids imposing proposal prep costs on researchers.
3) ameliorates the disruption from GOP sabotage.

Recent research shows that AI can durably reduce belief in conspiracies. But does this work b/c the AI is good at producing evidence, or b/c ppl really trust AI?

In a new working paper, we show that the effect persists even if the person thinks they're talking to a human: osf.io/preprints/ps...

🧵

"On the right end, they don’t want renters in the neighborhood. On the left, they don’t want landlords in the neighborhood. They agree that we shouldn’t approve rental housing." @kevinerdmann.bsky.social

The Studies Show podcast episode 66

For those new to Superforecasting, looking for a good podcast introduction, you can find it here: @TomChivers @StuartJRitchie

Deeply important research: The two-stair rule for mid-sized apartments once made sense, but today it blocks housing with no clear benefit. 🧵
x.com/Sustainable...

Trump's actions pushing up recession risk dramatically in futures markets kalshi.com/markets/kxre... polymarket.com/event/us-rec...

worth seeing

Breaking barriers: How provinces can drive Canada's prosperity by unlocking trade and labour mobility | Macdonald-Laurier Institute Trevor Tombe calls on provinces to strengthen internal trade in Canada to reduce vulnerability to volatile international trade relationships and enhance resilience against external shocks like tariffs

Canadian provinces must:
• recognize regulations in other provinces as valid substitutes for their own.
• improve labour mobility by recognizing the job certifications of other provinces.

Important report by @trevortombe.bsky.social
macdonaldlaurier.ca/breaking-bar...