RotoTrix

Villa are massively overperforming their underlying data. Their push is over. Two horse race. And it's more like a very talented favourite vs a talented but jaded old boy, at this point - an old boy that keeps tripping over its own hoofs.

right now, #lufc are 6/1 to be relegated, which means it's unlikely. Not impossible, of course. But unlikely. Does the £45m signing of JSL suddenly make us 8/1? Maybe. Perhaps. Or maybe not. But regardless, they're rolling the dice - and I can see why that might be a smart play 👍

they're likely risking it, assuming that the club can survive regardless with unnecessary extra long-term financial exposure, thus hoping it sets #lufc up for more financial flexibility in future windows. It's called a portfolio assessment - an opportunity cost assessment or a risk analysis.

you're more than welcome to have your opinions. I think sometimes people are just trying to enjoy their weekend so excessive analysis of a defeat to a world class team can feel exhausting. That's all it is. I try to take a longer term view of things so I stay sane & avoid overreacting weekly #lufc

he has to take a squad which is almost certainly one of the five weakest in the division, and get them to compete with much better squads over the course of a full season, all the while taking criticism when 16th place (which is arguably above par, by the way) is considered not enough. #lufc

composure around the box is also what separates the very best from the very good. Madueke breathed calmly, tooK his time, and composer himself before every cross/shot/pass yesterday. Okafor & Gabe (plus others) were rushed in the final third, much more hopeful. The size of Farke's task is immense.

who is the other #9 he had available yesterday mate? I think we lose to arsenal 9 times out of 10 regardless of which personnel he chose yesterday. Especially when we have more important fixtures close to the fixture, and we are trying to avoid injuries and suspensions as a result 👍

a debate is fine - you asked what you were missing, so I told you. It's fine if you disagree. But I think I made some fairly valid points mate 👍 onto Forest, and if we can get a result, we'll all be smiling ☺️

he started Aaronson alongside DCL at Newcastle; we looked very threatening & scored three goals. Did I dream that? Farke is doing quite a good job with this squad, let's be honest. Because the squad is decent but far from ideal, in my humble opinion. I'm sure Farke would prefer more options #lufc

both of whom are Top 10 sides. We lost a game to one of the best teams in the world, and after going 0-2 down, we reined it in a bit, with one eye on a huge home game Vs Forest in six days. I mean, we can spin it positively or negatively, but we've lost 2 of our last 11 games despite tough run #lufc

the one DCL smacked against the post in our last away game, which could easily have been a goal. The fact he is playing someone alongside DCL (Aaronson). The fact he changed it Vs Fulham to go more attacking, and we ultimately won the game. The fact that we took 4 points out of 6 Vs Fulham & Everton

I've now blocked him too 👌

aye. That's right. And I'm sure if we go down or stay up, you'll be the same miserable, rude, self-proclaimed genius that spends their time trolling people online, seeking to inflate their own sense of self when in reality, it deflates again as soon as you stop typing.

I said it would rain, it did.
I said it would snow, it did.
I said people would get sick, they did.

You're not some sort of wise oracle mate. You're "predicting" that things might be a little difficult at some point in time. Grow up 👍 #lufc

as I said to my uncle before the game - if West Ham lose today, then #lufc have had a good day. That's another fixture down. The gap remains six points. And they lost in a damaging way, losing their CB to a three-match ban too. Perfect 👌

if losing at home to Arsenal six days before a huge home fixture V Forest changed your mind on literally anything about this team, you really need to be giving your head a wobble, going for a walk, and reassessing how you deal with life 😆 some of the FarkeOut sorts are just unhappy people mate #lufc

should be a competitive game tomorrow. Big moment in Arsenal's season. Looking forward to it.

and is there a possible scenario where a more attack-minded, progressive manager would have made subs that ultimately cost us even a point? Or are you saying that the subs you wanted, at the time you wanted, would have DEFINITELY guaranteed three points? #lufc

I reckon Spurs win today, but point taken 😂

and we're catching Palace 😎

you were negative in the summer and you're negative now. Sometimes, you have to wonder if you're just a bit negative? Stop worrying man. We are in a good place 👍

what do you mean by "we will get someone for fear of looking like we threw the towel in"? Sorry if I misread it. My bad.

I'm not saying you think that. I'm saying that they're not just going to buy a striker because their competitors are buying strikers. That's not a reason to buy a striker now. They'll only do it if the right value or opportunity emerges.

... they're willing to pay for JSL, & if that doesn't get it done, they'll move on, adjust & try to find value elsewhere. They seem to want a "Prem proven" physical type (aka Muniz/Larsen) - willing to go big for a ST that has proven they can hack the level. But only at what they deem "value' #lufc

that is absolutely not the case, and thankfully, this #lufc board doesn't seem to care about public opinion (at least not as much as they care about getting it right). When everyone said they were clueless getting DCL+Nmecha for free, they went ahead & backed their plan. They will have a price...

if they do get Larsen, it's because they really rate him & believe that "Prem-ready" physical types like him, who have proven before they can hack the level, are not readily available. It's the same reason they were genuinely keen on Rodrigo Muniz. It seems to be a profile they like 👍 #lufc

I really don't think our board care about that. They seem to be made of sterner stuff than spending £35m+ just to face. They went ahead with two free transfers (DCL & Nmecha) despite serious fan scepticism about it. I'm glad they don't seem to bow to public opinion & stick to an actual model 👍 #lufc

exactly this. Nmecha isn't all that physical, to be fair. He is a great option, pacier than DCL & offers a different threat. But he is often shrugged off the ball in duels and doesn't hold the ball up whatsoever - we are significantly weakened if DCL is hurt because Nmecha isn't a like replacement.

Longstaff definitely not match sharp, that's for sure. Bijol was immense.

We dominated the entire game. It was plainly obvious in the first half that Derby were wide open, and #lufc were dangerous every time they went forward. Could have been five or six with better quality. 17 shots to six; 2.54 xG to 0.42. It wasn't close. 💙💛