Taha

Today MPs will vote on the amended welfare bill.

MPs who choose to walk through the lobby and support this bill are paving the way for at least 150,000 people to be pulled into poverty.

Here are just 3 reasons why they should oppose this bill from @katieschmuecker.bsky.social 🔽

A graph showing that local authorities with weaker local economies have more people on UC that are searching for work or unable to work due to a health condition for each vacancy in that area

Much of the Government's intention for cutting PIP and UC is to motivate people to find a job

But cutting social security can't 'incentivise' people into jobs that don't exist

New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows there are simply too few jobs for the Government's argument to hold

Finally - OFSTED doesn't collect this data. Lots of hard work w/ @drantoniasimon.bsky.social and Vivek Kotecha at Trinava Consulting to figure out how to find + match data on PE, with Companies House data, with OFSTED data. Easily solved by adding 2 additional qs on the provider registration form..!

A point on quality - the lowest proportion outstanding settings are in the most-deprived areas - true for all provider types.
However PE providers have markedly fewer outstanding settings in the most-deprived areas than other ownership types.

What does this mean? As here: bsky.app/profile/ucln...
Ever lessening provision of childcare in the most-deprived areas. Govt must do more to manage this market and ensure access is even

proportion of closed places since 2018 by different ownership types and the deprivation band of the setting. More PE places closed in least deprived areas, compared to more evenly distributed closures by other ownership types

Similar story for closures - fairly even distribution for other provider types, but uneven for "PE places". Should be said, total openings by PE providers is circa 25k. Total closed places is nearer 6k. Starting number of places is also higher in least-deprived areas than most-deprived areas

proportion of new places since 2018 by different ownership types and the deprivation band of the setting. More PE places opened in least deprived areas, compared to more evenly distributed openings by other ownership types

What kinds of areas has that growth in places been seen? Well, its mainly in the least-deprived areas.
Most-deprived areas already start with fewer settings, but this behaviour by PE providers suggests a stripping away of provision in more-deprived areas
Other providers are more evenly distributed!

bar chart of Early Childcare market in 2018 and 2024, cut but ownership

Excited to share - I co-authored a paper w/ @uclnews.bsky.social on the distribution of nursery places by ownership type (incl. Private Equity owners) & deprivation band - nursery places provided by PE providers have doubled as a share of the market since 2018
🧵
discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10...

Young people caught in crosshairs of health and disability reforms The Pathways to Work green paper proposals will impact young people already experiencing high levels of hardship, undermining the policy intent that underpins the Youth Guarantee.

The Pathways to Work proposals will impact young people already facing high levels of hardship - undermining the Youth Guarantee.

💭 @rachelcasey.bsky.social examines the two competing government visions for young people furthest from the labour market.

Read more: www.jrf.org.uk/work/young-p...

DWP is using a sleight of hand in its disability benefit cuts impact assessment: Actual increase in poverty is closer to 400,000, not the 250,000 in the impact assessment.

Quick thread explaining why. 🧵1/7

OBR's measure of living standards, RHDI, is up by £500 - largely due to stronger wage growth, including planning reforms which boost incomes.

BUT when you dig into it, 3/4 of the extra income from housing services is 'imputed rents' (what families would receive if they rented out their home).

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Kendall unveils crackdown on benefits aimed at saving £5bn by 2030 - live updates Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall pledges

There are genuinely helpful measures in today’s package to help disabled people into work & a new contributory benefit so our system looks more like social insurance.

But as this headline shows - it’s the huge cuts that will overshadow today’s announcement..

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c0...

Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Liz Kendall's speech today laid out plans to cut disability and sickness benefits by billions.

❌ No truly moral choice would leave disabled people without support designed to allow them to lead a dignified life, or facing hardship. 1/4

Stacked bar chart showing that the vast majority of the forecast increase in caseload and expenditure on PIP is from recipients in receipt of both elements (80% of caseload growth, 89% of spend growth) or one at the enhanced rate (increases to 84% of caseload growth, 92% of spend growth).

@jrf-uk.bsky.social has analysed caseload data and can see much of the forecast growth in PIP spending is directed at people with significant difficulties across a range of areas. Over half of the growth in spending is from people in receipt of the higher rate in both PIP elements.

This will be a really great event - please attend if of interest (or share widely)

Inflation is up by 3%, but private rents are up by 8.7% across the UK and 11%(!!!) in London.

Across GB, it means paying ~£100 more per month on average since Jan 24, or ~£200 more per month since Jan 23.

In London, £220 more per month since Jan 24, or ~£400(!) more per month since Jan 23.

this has made me feel way more optimistic about the offseason / Bengals chances next season

21% of people were in poverty in 2003/04. 21% of people were still in poverty in 2022/23.

20 years and no progress on poverty 📢

Behind these numbers are real people. Real struggles.

Listen to some of their voices.

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written by me where is Chris de Burgh

cue "polling in disrepute" headlines

Thanks for this paper Tao, super interesting work and what novel use of Kantar's data

📣 We’re recruiting two Analysts!

Do you have the skills to help deliver our programme of analytical work in ways that can shape policy and generate impact?

Are you interested in social policy, UK poverty and the political environment?

Apply here: jrf.octo-firstclass.co.uk/candidates/c...