Steve Liesman

A theme that kept emerging is the decision by the Trump admin to tariff inputs. Higher prices and negative effects on jobs and output (especially manufacturing) will take more time to pass through the system than if the tariffs had been just on finished products. www.bostonfed.org/news-and-eve...

The US may be much more exposed to tariff impacts than implied by the relatively small percent of trade to GDP. That's the conclusion of several papers and speeches at the Boston Fed's economic conference today. The result may be a more persistent stagflationary impact on jobs and growth....

Not sure why.

BLS has cancelled the October CPI and the Fed will meet Dec 9 and 10 without the Nov CPI, which has been rescheduled for Dec 18 from the 10th.

As previously reported,
Fed also won’t have jobs reports

“Say Jay, how you feelin’ about the economy?”

“Not so good John. Let’s cut.”

“Ok by me”

My hot take: With the BLS saying it will release the Nov jobs report on dec 16, to include Oct payroll data, the fed should either postpone the Dec 9/10 meeting or the bls should figure out a way to get it done earlier. The rate decision hinges critically on the jobs outlook and it’s 2mos of data

Altdata Alternative data to judge the state of the economy outside of the traditional government sources.

A great resource from our @steveliesman.bsky.social -- in this period where we're flying in the dark on economic data.

@cnbc.com
www.cnbc.com/altdata/

The Fed is likely to keep cutting interest rates, but multiple dangers lurk, CNBC survey finds The Fed is expected to cut by a quarter point at its meeting this week and could cut at the next two meetings as well.

CNBC FED SURVEY: Fed to keep cutting despite concerns about tariffs, inflation and an ai bubble.

www.cnbc.com/2025/10/28/t...

Trump's approval rating on the economy takes hit because of shutdown, inflation, CNBC survey finds American's views on the economy turned more negative in the third quarter with deepening concerns about jobs, inflation and the outlook.

Trump's approval rating on the economy takes hit because of shutdown, inflation www.cnbc.com/2025/10/17/t...

Trump's Fed pressure campaign will lead to higher inflation, weaker growth, according to CNBC survey The survey found that 41% of respondents surveyed believe that the president's actions are directly aimed at eliminating the Fed's independence, with 41% saying they are designed to limit them.

Trump's Fed pressure campaign will lead to higher inflation: CNBC survey www.cnbc.com/2025/09/16/t...

So, even in defeat, the president’s agenda is advanced, at least among his supporters. But for now, Cook keeps her job and there are some limitations on the president’s ability to remove a fed governor, preserving central bank independence. For now. 3

Social media posts I’ve seen from the president’s supporters focus exclusively on ad hominem attacks on the judge being black, a member of the same sorority and a “dei hire.” None I saw addressed the legal questions decided by Judge Cobb. Several continued the theme of runaway lower courts. 2

Trump blocked from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook as lawsuit plays out The Supreme Court is likely to have the final say on whether President Donald Trump has legal cause to remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve.

If the case against Fed Gov Cook were a tennis match, the govt just got routed in 3 straight sets. The judge found in favor of Cook on every point: firing by the prez would render fed independence meaningless; the court can review the president’s decision; and Cook was denied a right to a hearing. 1

Raise your hand if your bingo card for the past seven days had:

1. US takes 10% stake in intel
2. Trump fires Fed Reserve Governor
3. US appeals court declares emergency tariffs illegal

You win.

Ftr. I said when Trump started doing tariffs, he should do it thru congress. (Ftr, so did some others). Now, we have MONTHS of additional uncertainty waiting for the USSC. If you’re an importer, what do you do now? You wait. Just in time for Xmas. Goods shortages? Maybe..

More volatility in trade, GDP and inflation data ahead so we less clarity on the economy. Hey @justinwolfers.bsky.social , what’s ur “intraday tariff chart” look like now?

Ftr. I said when Trump started doing tariffs, he should do it thru congress. (Ftr, so did some others). Now, we have MONTHS of additional uncertainty waiting for the USSC. If you’re an importer, what do you do now? You wait. Just in time for Xmas. Goods shortages? Maybe..

Federal appeals court strikes down major chunk of Trump’s tariffs The ruling will not take effect right away, giving the administration time to appeal to the Supreme Court.

Holy wow. Many tariffs struck down by appeals court

www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

MOVING FAST: Senate Banking announces Sept 4 confirmation hearing for CEA Director Stephen Miran for the vacant seat on the Federal Reserve Board. Don’t know if he can be confirmed by the full Senate and sworn in in time for Sept 16 meeting but you have to believe that’s the objective.

Statement from Abbe David Lowell, attorney for Fed Gov Lisa Cook (Part 2):
“…We will take whatever actions are needed to prevent his attempted illegal action.”

Statement from Abbe David Lowell, attorney for Fed Gov Lisa Cook:

“President Trump has taken to social media to once again “fire by tweet” and once again his reflex to bully is flawed and his demands lack any proper process, basis or legal authority...

Statement from Fed Gov Lisa Cook:

“President Trump purported to fire me “for cause” when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022.”

Mordor coming to life here in Jackson Hole.

Hassett likely to be Trump's pick for Fed chief, though Warsh is more qualified, CNBC survey finds The NEC director firmly led when asked who the president will choose from among 11 names being considered.

Hassett likely to be Trump's pick for Fed chief, though Warsh is more qualified, CNBC survey finds www.cnbc.com/2025/08/20/h...

Trump's approval rating still negative while the public sours further on Democrats, CNBC survey shows Trump's overall and economic ratings remain negative despite a slight improvement in the CNBC All-America Economic Survey.

Trump approval rating still negative while the public sours further on Democrats www.cnbc.com/2025/08/07/t...

No doubt the system can and should be improved. But you have to identify the problem and if you’re starting with politics, you’re starting in the wrong place. Also probably not optimal to be proposing 9% staff and budget cuts at the bls, as contained in Trump’s FY26 budget.

The President also suggested there were other post election revisions. But the next revisions came out Dec 5, when Sept and Oct were revised UP by a combined 148k. So there remains not a single piece of data supporting the president’s assertion that the data is rigged politically.

President Trump claimed again in a @cnbc.com interview today that the -818k annual benchmark revisions to jobs came out after the election in Nov, showing the data was rigged to hurt him. But he was fact-checked on air by Joe Kernen who pointed out the report was actually released in Aug 24.

The other irony is that it has been left to the more liberal economists to point this out.

The decline in jobs and growth should be seen as proof of what economists have been saying all along. Instead, economists supporting the administration suggest what I call the idea of “immaculate taxation” that somehow this money is being collected and no one is paying it and it has no effect.

The irony of denying the impact of tariffs on job creation is that all economists, but especially conservative ones, have long held that when you tax something, you get less of it. So tariff revenue running at a $350b annual rate in July is a major tax on consumption.