@alvaropp.bsky.social
Sociology Ph.D. student at Cornell. Environmental and Computational Demography. Health inequality. Climate Change. Heat. Urban Mobility. https://apadillapozo.com Ithaca, NY, USA; Alicante, Spain.
New working paper up on SocArxiv! osf.io/preprints/so.... I use the 1940 Census and linked mortality records in combination with an IV-design to study the causal effects of racial segregation on longevity. I show that segregation reduces both Black and White longevity.
Survey Statistics: random sampling is not leaving
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/16/s...
How has climate change shaped your lifetime of heat?
Younger people today are experiencing more extremely hot days during their childhood compared to previous generations.
Check out the new interactive tool by @climatecentral.org: climatecentral.observablehq.cloud/generational...
🌡️ New global study: hot nights increase mortality risk — independently of daytime heat. 178 cities, 44 countries, 14M+ deaths analyzed.
Our new study published in Environment Int and led by Carmen Iñiguez and myself from the MCC Research Network.
#HotNights #ClimateHealth #climatechange
🍂 Aug-tober?
From the Upper Midwest to the Southeast, many are stepping into refreshingly cool late-summer air this week.
🔵 Temps 10–20°F below average—a rare late-August treat
The catch? A refreshing summer cool down like this is becoming less common for future summer fun 🔽
Enfatizo esto cada vez que hablo sobre calor y salud con otras personas. Si no estás acostumbradx, 30 grados pueden ser una pesadilla.
I emphasize this every time I talk about the impacts of heat on health with other people. If you're not used to it, 30C 86F can be a nightmare.
Esto estaba pensando ahora... si hace un calor para cocerse ya, lo de aguantar "5 días" va a ser tremendo.
🇪🇸 How is wealth distributed in Spain ?
This study, co-authored by G.A. Marrero @cmtneztt.bsky.social @juancpal.bsky.social & D.Petrov, is the first systematic analysis of regional wealth inequality in Spain.
Key findings in 🧵[1/5]
wid.world/news-article...
Forthcoming in the JEL: "Difference-in-Differences Designs: A Practitioner’s Guide" by Andrew Baker, Brantly Callaway, Scott Cunningham, Andrew Goodman-Bacon, and Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
It felt like a cool May, but only because we're frogs in a pot of water that is gradually boiling.
@climatecentral.org
⚠️El calor de hoy no ha sido lo normal 🔥
Y este evento extremo es 5 veces más probable en un mundo con cambio climático que sin él 📈🌡️🌍
![What can be learned when multiple analysts arrive at different estimates
Kowall et al. (2025) have brought the multi-analyst approach to epidemiology, with instructive results. With this approach, multiple researchers analyze the same data set to answer the same research question. Or, at least, what appears to be the same research question. In fact, the very first paper that popularized this approach [1] has been criticized for using a vague research question (“Are soccer referees more likely to give red cards to players with dark skin tone than light skin tone?”), which apparently led the analysts to try to answer quite different questions—from a simple question about a bivariate statistical association to much more complex causal questions about racial bias [2].
In contrast, the research question passed on to analysts in Kowall et al. (2025) seems less ambiguous: Does marital status influence the incidence of cardiovascular disease? But less ambiguous does not equal unambiguous. Considerable...](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gz53felr7btxgmbxae5aooxi/bafkreidvs4c7wvoh63tr2ptmvnnl5hya246ofttwyzlvotkmqhnpwgbf4a)
Kowall et al. published a multi-analyst epi study on the effect of marital status on cardiovascular disease (link.springer.com/article/10.1...). What can be learned from this effort? Check out our new commentary! link.springer.com/article/10.1...
with @mendelrandom.bsky.social & Marcus Munafò
España es de los países con la tasa más baja, pero Singapur, Hong Kong y Corea del Sur están por debajo del bebé por mujer.
ourworldindata.org/grapher/chil...
🚨 “Good Description” with @annagbusse.bsky.social 🚨
What sets 'good' description apart from 'mere' description?
We develop a framework for evaluating descriptive research, whether we are doing it as scholars or assessing it as readers.
Two main contributions...
🔗📄 tinyurl.com/gooddesc
“I’ll just run this last robustness check and then the paper will be finished...”
[🆕RESEARCH] Increasing vegetation cover by 10%, 20%, and 30% could lower the global population-weighted mean temperature during the #warm season. These reductions could prevent approximately 0.86, 1.02, and 1.16 million deaths—corresponding to 27.16%, 32.22%, and 36.66% of all heat-related deaths.
🔔 Call for Interest 🔔 – UPF DemoSoc is looking for senior researchers to join through Spain’s ATRAE 2025 programme. PhD before 01/01/2018 required. 3–4 year contract + long-term stabilization. If you are interested, send an email to: jorge.rodriguez@upf.edu. Deadline to express interest: May 9.
My colleague Cristobal Young and co-author Erin Cumberworth just released their book on multiverse analysis, a set of tools that help resolve the "garden of forking paths" and "file-drawer" problems and, in the process, improve quantitative social & behavioral science.
Highly recommend.
If you presented work related to climate or the environment at @popassocamerica.bsky.social , self-promote and join the list!
Putting together a list of demographers working on questions related to climate change and the environment.
Reply or like this post to be added.
Reposts appreciated so we can reach as many people as possible.
go.bsky.app/MwYXxeN
Added. Thanks Clark! I'm relatively new to the field so I appreciate any suggestions.
Putting together a list of demographers working on questions related to climate change and the environment.
Reply or like this post to be added.
Reposts appreciated so we can reach as many people as possible.
go.bsky.app/MwYXxeN
I was thinking about this, especially after meeting so many cool people doing amazing env demography work at PAA. I'll give it a try!
Hi. Could I added to the list? Thanks :)!
📊 #psy6135 #rstats Today's topic: Visualizing Uncertainty
Topics: Visualizing distributions, Error bars, Bayesian stuff, fitted curves, ...
Thx to @elibryan.bsky.social, @mjskay.com, @clauswilke.com, @cedricscherer.com and other folks I stole from.
💻 Slides-- friendly.github.io/6135/lecture...
New paper in @bmj.com. Ever been told ‘what does your DAG say?” or “show me your DAG”, or “ok draw a DAG” and not sure what that means or how to get started? Well buckle up, because Fernando Hartwig, @neilmdavies.bsky.social and I wrote an RMR on just this topic. www.bmj.com/content/388/...
New blog post! In which I explain the issue with mediation analysis and sketch out one way to deal with the underlying causal inference problem -- in just a bit over 1,000 words!
If you have never found the time to read up on this, now is your chance.
www.the100.ci/2025/03/20/r...
Delighted to share a new publication, with the amazing @kelseabest.bsky.social & Bishawjit Mallick, using pattern-oriented agent-based modeling to explore the importance of economic inequality in determining patterns of environmentally-driven migration in Bangladesh.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
I really liked this idea of using a histogram as a legend in a choropleth map (since land isn't unemployed; people are), so I made a little guide to doing it with #rstats, {ggplot2}, and {patchwork}
www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2025/02...
Our Super Bowl plan is watching American Psycho and eating eggplant parmigiana.