Csaba G. Tóth

Fertility rates in Poland have fallen in villages and cities alike. The long-term rural–urban convergence is remarkable.
#demography #population #fertility #Poland #Cities

Hungary’s population fell to 9.49 million by January 1, 2026, the same level observed in 1952.
#demography #population #Hungary

Hungary’s fertility rate fell from 1.51 to 1.31 in just two years. Births dropped sharply: from 85,000 in 2023 to 72,000 in 2025.
#demography #population #fertility #Hungary

Child and youth psychiatric care in Hungary has doubled since 2011. Three factors may have contributed: (1) rising mental-health needs, (2) improved monitoring and diagnosis, and (3) greater use of specialist care.
#Hungary #children #MentalHealthMatters

Births in Budapest declined sharply by nearly 25% over the past two years in the January–September period, far exceeding the already large 16% decline at the national level in Hungary.
#demography #fertility #Budapest #Hungary

Suicide rates in Hungary remain alarmingly high above age 50. At the oldest ages, mortality is nearly 1.5× higher than in any regional peer.
#demography #Hungary #Poland #Romania

It's a mistake.

Ajaj, tényleg. Köszönöm!

Fathers tend to be 3–4 years older than mothers, a gap that has remained stable over the last decade in Hungary. Three decades ago, the average age at childbirth was about 26 for women and 29 for men; today it is roughly 31 and 34.
#demography #fertility #motherhood #Hungary

YouTube video by hceconomics Modern Fertility Choice: Population Change, Fertility, & Mothers' Employment

An unforgettable moment discussing my research with James J. Heckman, Nobel Prize–winning economist, and Ronald Lee, co-author of the Lee–Carter model, a cornerstone of modern mortality forecasting.
#demography #fertility
youtu.be/KuhbmK98i38?...

It is a great honor to present my current research on population change at the Mini Conference organized by the Center for the Economics of Human Development at the University of Chicago, under the leadership of Nobel laureate James Heckman @heckmanequation.bsky.social.
#demography

Births fluctuate, but over five decades fertility in the EU27 was remarkably similar: almost all countries had a total fertility rate between 1.5 and 1.9. Ireland was the exception, at 2.4.
#demography #fertility #EU27 #Ireland #Poland #Germany

This is the correct link to my publication:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Thrilled to see the population-change decomposition method I developed now applied in the @EBRD Transition Report 2025–26, Brave New World.😃😃
EBRD report: www.ebrd.com/home/news-an...
My publication: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/pa…

Hungary’s fertility rate fell to 1.31 in the first ten months of the year, down from 1.62 four years ago. Combined with a shrinking reproductive-age population, this meant 17 thousand fewer births than in 2021.
#demography #population #Hungary #fertility #maternity

Sex ratio at birth hit a new record last year in Hungary.
The number of newborn boys per 100 girls jumped above 107. While boys are the majority at birth, their share gradually declines, by the time people reach their 50s, women become the majority.
#demography #population #fertility #birth

One in five people eligible to vote in next year’s Hungarian election was too young to vote in 2010. Nearly 2 million people have died since then, leading to a 20% turnover in the voting-age population between 2010 and 2026.
#demography #population #Hungary #Election2026

The Baltic countries lost a quarter of their population between 1990 and 2020. While net migration was the main driver, below-replacement fertility reduced their populations by about one tenth.
Details: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
#demography #Population #Estonia #Lithuania #Latvia

The young age profile fully offset population losses from negative migration in Central and Eastern Europe between 1990 and 2020. Population Council just featured my Population and Development Review paper in a short summary!
#demography #migration #Poland
popcouncil.org/insight/driver…

South Korea’s dramatic fertility decline over the past 25 years has been driven mainly by falling birth rates among women aged 25–29. Since 2012, fertility among those aged 30–34 has also dropped sharply.
#demography #fertility #SouthKorea #population

Yes, exactly! :)

The age pattern of divorce among men has flattened over the past 25 years. Around the millennium, the risk of divorce fell sharply with age; today in Hungary, it’s nearly the same from 25 to 55. The same pattern holds for women.
#demography #divorce #motherhood #Hungary #marriage

📢My paper is out in Population and Development Review.😀Central and Eastern Europe’s population change isn’t just about fertility, mortality, and migration — the age structure also an important factor.
#demography #ageing #fertility #Hungary #Poland #Romania #migration
doi.org/10.1111/padr...

White and Black Americans are hit harder by the US opioid crisis than Hispanics. In 2023, overdoses claimed 107,000 lives, over 75% tied to opioids. A new study says the surge is mainly supply-driven.
#demography #US #America
link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Over the last two decades, Romania, Czechia and Slovakia cut their life expectancy gap with the EU27. But Hungary, Poland and Bulgaria remain stuck — showing little convergence.
#demography #lifespan #Poland #Hungary #Romania

Great honour to present my research at the Annual Conference of the British Society for Population Studies in Swansea — in the session with the undeniably sexy name: Innovations in Formal and Mathematical Demography. 🤓
#Demography #BSPS25
@bspsuk.bsky.social

Fertility boom in Kazakhstan should receive more attention: TFR increased from 1.9 to 3.3 over two decades. This seems to be an example of a reversed fertility transition, with rising progressions to higher-order births and little fertility postponement.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#fertility

Below-replacement fertility can have very different outcomes. With a TFR of about 1 (as in China or Malta), the third generation is only one-quarter the size of the first. With a TFR of about 1.7 (as in Bulgaria or Romania), it is three-quarters the size.
#demography #fertility #population

Hungary’s fertility rate fell below 1.3 in the first half of the year. Combined with a shrinking reproductive-age population, this led to 10,000 fewer births compared to 2021.
#demography #population #fertility #Hungary

More men died from COVID-19, but since men generally have a higher risk of death at all ages, women weren’t always better off when looking at the increase in mortality. In some cases, their death rates rose even more. Excellent new study just out!
medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
#demography #Population