Csaba G. Tóth

Below-replacement fertility can have very different outcomes. With a TFR of about 1 (as in China or Malta), the third generation is only one-quarter the size of the first. With a TFR of about 1.7 (as in Bulgaria or Romania), it is three-quarters the size.
#demography #fertility #population

Hungary’s fertility rate fell below 1.3 in the first half of the year. Combined with a shrinking reproductive-age population, this led to 10,000 fewer births compared to 2021.
#demography #population #fertility #Hungary

More men died from COVID-19, but since men generally have a higher risk of death at all ages, women weren’t always better off when looking at the increase in mortality. In some cases, their death rates rose even more. Excellent new study just out!
medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
#demography #Population

The fertility gap between graduate and non-graduate women becomes statistically insignificant when accounting for first-in-family (FiF) status. FiF graduates have fewer children than both non-FiF graduates and non-graduates.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#demography #fertility #population #UK

Life expectancy gains have slowed sharply in the past decade in Western Europe. The increase was just 1.1 years, less than half the progress seen in earlier decades.
#demograpy #population #lifepan #Poland #Germany #UK #France #Italy

Romania’s population dropped from 23.2M to 19.3M between 1990 and 2020. The decline was driven by net out-migration and low fertility, partly offset by a relatively young age structure and rising life expectancy.
Source:
#demography #population #Romania #Bukarest
osf.io/preprints/so...

Fertility in the EU27 fell to a historic low below 1.4 in 2023. The TFR of 1.38 marks a 0.15-point drop in just two years.
#demography #fertility #babies #EU #Germany #Poland #Italy #France #Spain

A strange coupling in the global demographic dance: Europe moves in sync with North America, while Asia aligns more closely with South America.👩‍❤️‍👨👯
#demography #fertility #US #Europe #Asia #Brasil #UK #Germany #India #China #population

Malta is losing its women. In just 10 years, the number of women per 100 men plunged from 100 to 89 — a unique demographic shift in Europe.
#demography #population #Malta #women #gender

Hungary’s monthly fertility rate fell to 1.25 in March 2025, 0.1 lower than a year earlier and more than 0.2 lower than two years ago.
#demography #fertility #Hungary

Hungary’s population fell to 9.5 million by January 1, 2025. The 0.5% decline in 2024 marks the largest annual drop in the past decade.
#demography #population #Hungary

Hungary’s population fell to 9.5 million by January 1, 2025. The 0.5% decline in 2024 marks the largest annual drop in the past decade.
#demography #population #Hungary

The English version:
osf.io/preprints/so...

I had the chance to explain the unique reason behind Hungary’s population decline in a brief, accessible research summary featured by a top Hungarian online media outlet. 😀
#demogarphy #population #Hungary #fertility #aging
telex.hu/defacto/2025...

The English version:
osf.io/preprints/so...

No kids without moving out? Or why move out without kids? Fertility rates are lower in countries where more young adults (20–29) still live with their parents.
#demography #fertility #EU #Poland #Hungary #babies

A guaranteed basic income can reduce fertility if it’s deducted from primary social benefits but leaves employment wages and earnings unchanged. An excellent new study has been published:
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
#demography #fertility #babies

Shocking rise in infant mortality in Hungary. In 2024, infant deaths per 1,000 live births more than doubled in Budapest - from 1.4 to 2.9. The reasons behind this alarming trend remain unclear.
#Demography #Hungary #Budapest

In Hungary, the number of births over the past 12 months fell by 9% compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, the annual average fertility rate dropped from 1.48 to 1.37.
#demography #fertility #population #Hungary

A rise in the mean age of childbearing lowered Hungary’s total fertility rate in the 1990s, followed by a rebound in the last decade. Meanwhile, the average number of children per woman at 45 first stagnated, then declined sharply. This reflects the delayed effect.
#demography #fertility #Hungary

Elderly people in Hungary have the lowest life expectancy in the EU. At age 65, life expectancy in Hungary is 16.8 years, 3.5 years below the EU average and 5.2 years lower than top-ranking Spain.
#demography #Hungary #lifespan #Spain #Poland

Our joint work with Judit Krekó and Tamás Hajdu, 'Inequalities in Regional Excess Mortality and Life Expectancy During COVID-19 in Europe,' ranked 51st among the Top 100 most downloaded sustainability research papers in Scientific Reports (2024)!😀
#demography
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

The 1918 influenza pandemic particularly affected young adults, the HIV/AIDS epidemic disproportionately impacted young and middle-aged adults, while COVID-19 primarily affected older populations.
#demography #COVIDー19 #AIDS #Pandemic #Mortality
d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wa...

The average number of children per woman at age 45 is still rising across cohorts in the US, even as the total fertility rate (TFR) declines. While TFR reflects short-term trends, it will eventually shape cohort fertility.
#demography #fertility #US

Digitalization against tax evasion: evidence on the role of company size - Journal of Business Economics To reduce tax evasion, in 2013 and 2014 the Hungarian government introduced mandatory online cash registers (OCR) in some sectors. As a result, almost 200,000 OCRs have been installed by 100,000 enter...

Demographers sometimes do public economics, just not in a hurry! 😀 8 years since the start of the project, 4 co-authors, 2 working papers, and finally - 1 publication in the Journal of Business Economics! 🎉
#Hungary #economics #digitalization
link.springer.com/article/10.1...

The key question in CEE countries is not how to increase fertility but how to stop its decline. Women born in 1966 had an average of two children, while those born a decade later had only 1.7 by the end of their reproductive years.
#demography #fertility #Poland #Czechia #Hungary #Slovakia

The total population of 11 Central and Eastern European countries could have been 15.5 million (15%) larger by 2020 if fertility had remained at the replacement level (around 2.1 TFR) since 1990. Instead, it was just 1.5.
osf.io/preprints/so...
#population #demography #Europe #fertility #birth

Poland's population in 2020 was 38M, the same as in 1990. Below-replacement fertility reduced it by 5.6M over this period, but gains in life expectancy and a young initial age structure offset the decline.
#demography #fertility #Poland #Migration
Source: osf.io/preprints/so...

Massive regional differences in fertility rates within Hungary: some inner districts of Budapest (V., VI., VII.) have a fertility rate as low as 0.7–0.8, while the highest reaches 2.5 in a district (Edelény) in Northeast Hungary.
#demography #fertility #Hungary
Source: real.mtak.hu/195217/1/ts6...