Csaba G. Tóth

White and Black Americans are hit harder by the US opioid crisis than Hispanics. In 2023, overdoses claimed 107,000 lives, over 75% tied to opioids. A new study says the surge is mainly supply-driven.
#demography #US #America
link.springer.com/article/10.1...

White and Black Americans are hit harder by the US opioid crisis than Hispanics. In 2023, overdoses claimed 107,000 lives, over 75% tied to opioids. A new study says the surge is mainly supply-driven.
#demography #US #America
link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Over the last two decades, Romania, Czechia and Slovakia cut their life expectancy gap with the EU27. But Hungary, Poland and Bulgaria remain stuck — showing little convergence.
#demography #lifespan #Poland #Hungary #Romania

Great honour to present my research at the Annual Conference of the British Society for Population Studies in Swansea — in the session with the undeniably sexy name: Innovations in Formal and Mathematical Demography. 🤓
#Demography #BSPS25
@bspsuk.bsky.social

Fertility boom in Kazakhstan should receive more attention: TFR increased from 1.9 to 3.3 over two decades. This seems to be an example of a reversed fertility transition, with rising progressions to higher-order births and little fertility postponement.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#fertility

Below-replacement fertility can have very different outcomes. With a TFR of about 1 (as in China or Malta), the third generation is only one-quarter the size of the first. With a TFR of about 1.7 (as in Bulgaria or Romania), it is three-quarters the size.
#demography #fertility #population

Hungary’s fertility rate fell below 1.3 in the first half of the year. Combined with a shrinking reproductive-age population, this led to 10,000 fewer births compared to 2021.
#demography #population #fertility #Hungary

More men died from COVID-19, but since men generally have a higher risk of death at all ages, women weren’t always better off when looking at the increase in mortality. In some cases, their death rates rose even more. Excellent new study just out!
medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
#demography #Population

The fertility gap between graduate and non-graduate women becomes statistically insignificant when accounting for first-in-family (FiF) status. FiF graduates have fewer children than both non-FiF graduates and non-graduates.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#demography #fertility #population #UK

Life expectancy gains have slowed sharply in the past decade in Western Europe. The increase was just 1.1 years, less than half the progress seen in earlier decades.
#demograpy #population #lifepan #Poland #Germany #UK #France #Italy

Romania’s population dropped from 23.2M to 19.3M between 1990 and 2020. The decline was driven by net out-migration and low fertility, partly offset by a relatively young age structure and rising life expectancy.
Source:
#demography #population #Romania #Bukarest
osf.io/preprints/so...

Fertility in the EU27 fell to a historic low below 1.4 in 2023. The TFR of 1.38 marks a 0.15-point drop in just two years.
#demography #fertility #babies #EU #Germany #Poland #Italy #France #Spain

A strange coupling in the global demographic dance: Europe moves in sync with North America, while Asia aligns more closely with South America.👩‍❤️‍👨👯
#demography #fertility #US #Europe #Asia #Brasil #UK #Germany #India #China #population

Malta is losing its women. In just 10 years, the number of women per 100 men plunged from 100 to 89 — a unique demographic shift in Europe.
#demography #population #Malta #women #gender

Hungary’s monthly fertility rate fell to 1.25 in March 2025, 0.1 lower than a year earlier and more than 0.2 lower than two years ago.
#demography #fertility #Hungary

Hungary’s population fell to 9.5 million by January 1, 2025. The 0.5% decline in 2024 marks the largest annual drop in the past decade.
#demography #population #Hungary

Hungary’s population fell to 9.5 million by January 1, 2025. The 0.5% decline in 2024 marks the largest annual drop in the past decade.
#demography #population #Hungary

The English version:
osf.io/preprints/so...

I had the chance to explain the unique reason behind Hungary’s population decline in a brief, accessible research summary featured by a top Hungarian online media outlet. 😀
#demogarphy #population #Hungary #fertility #aging
telex.hu/defacto/2025...

The English version:
osf.io/preprints/so...

No kids without moving out? Or why move out without kids? Fertility rates are lower in countries where more young adults (20–29) still live with their parents.
#demography #fertility #EU #Poland #Hungary #babies

A guaranteed basic income can reduce fertility if it’s deducted from primary social benefits but leaves employment wages and earnings unchanged. An excellent new study has been published:
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
#demography #fertility #babies

Shocking rise in infant mortality in Hungary. In 2024, infant deaths per 1,000 live births more than doubled in Budapest - from 1.4 to 2.9. The reasons behind this alarming trend remain unclear.
#Demography #Hungary #Budapest

In Hungary, the number of births over the past 12 months fell by 9% compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, the annual average fertility rate dropped from 1.48 to 1.37.
#demography #fertility #population #Hungary

A rise in the mean age of childbearing lowered Hungary’s total fertility rate in the 1990s, followed by a rebound in the last decade. Meanwhile, the average number of children per woman at 45 first stagnated, then declined sharply. This reflects the delayed effect.
#demography #fertility #Hungary

Elderly people in Hungary have the lowest life expectancy in the EU. At age 65, life expectancy in Hungary is 16.8 years, 3.5 years below the EU average and 5.2 years lower than top-ranking Spain.
#demography #Hungary #lifespan #Spain #Poland

Our joint work with Judit Krekó and Tamás Hajdu, 'Inequalities in Regional Excess Mortality and Life Expectancy During COVID-19 in Europe,' ranked 51st among the Top 100 most downloaded sustainability research papers in Scientific Reports (2024)!😀
#demography
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

The 1918 influenza pandemic particularly affected young adults, the HIV/AIDS epidemic disproportionately impacted young and middle-aged adults, while COVID-19 primarily affected older populations.
#demography #COVIDー19 #AIDS #Pandemic #Mortality
d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wa...

The average number of children per woman at age 45 is still rising across cohorts in the US, even as the total fertility rate (TFR) declines. While TFR reflects short-term trends, it will eventually shape cohort fertility.
#demography #fertility #US