Chris Nabholz

The tropics are finally waking up but currently no concerns. Watching the wave out east (large orange blob) and a low chance of close-in development later this week. In the longer term the next tropical wave bears watching next week: dswx.substack.com/p/tropics-up...

Still watching some medium range signals that haven't materialized, other than that the tropics are quiet. There are continued hints that activity may pick up but it hasn't happened yet: dswx.substack.com/p/tropics-ho...

No concerns about the red area in the Gulf next week, that's an older signal.

🌦️ More Gulf Showers Ahead; Mostly Quiet Tropics Into Early September 🌴 Inverted trough brings showers and storms before weekend with maybe another repeat next week; tropical development odds stay low until at least the mid‑September peak.

NHC tagged a system in the Gulf that is almost a repeat of last week, I'm not expecting much from it. We may see this pattern repeat again next week. The tropical wave train is slowly coming to life but no concerns at this time: dswx.substack.com/p/more-gulf-...

🌴 Tropics Quiet for Now, But Signs of Life Emerging 🌦️ Locally, Typical Summer Pattern Holds: Coastal Showers, Inland Sun

Quiet returns to the tropics, but activity may pick up in a few weeks: dswx.substack.com/p/tropics-qu...

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits [Tuesday] Watching Tropical Disturbance near Florida; Heavy Rainfall to Spread Westward

Great video as always from Dr. Cowan on the potential for Gulf development from Invest 93L: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUum...

NHC Flags Northern Gulf: Low-End Development Possible Next Week A low-pressure area could form mid to late next week near the Gulf Coast. While chances are low for development, it's something to keep an eye on. The rest of the forecast remains unchanged.

The NHC is now officially watching the northern Gulf for development later this week: dswx.substack.com/p/nhc-flags-...

Tropics are quiet, but there's a low chance of development in the Gulf next week. dswx.substack.com/p/july-10th-...

July 3rd Update on the Tropics Good News for the Gulf — Holiday Weather Looking Favorable

7/3 Tropical development no longer expected in the Gulf, weather for the holiday looks great, but showers return on Saturday. open.substack.com/pub/dswx/p/j...

Low chance of tropical development in the NE Gulf towards the end of the week. Doesn't look too exciting right now but will likely be a rain maker after the holiday: www.deepsouthwx.com/2025/06/trop...

Some strong storms possible the rest of this week: www.deepsouthwx.com/2025/06/stro...

Tropics Look to Remain Mostly Quiet Through the End of June June 23, 2025 🌊 Eastern Pacific Active Sixth named storm in development Storm activity remains high (not too unusual) 🌪️ Atlantic...

The tropics are continuing to look quiet, with maybe a very low chance in the Gulf towards the end of the month: www.deepsouthwx.com/2025/06/trop...

Continuing from yesterday, severe storms are possible Sunday and Monday across the Southeast. The tropics look quiet through the next 7 days, but may perk up after that: www.deepsouthwx.com/2025/06/seve...

6/5 Severe storms possible for parts of Alabama and Tennessee tomorrow and Saturday, probable extending into Sunday and Monday as well: www.deepsouthwx.com/2025/06/more...

Which hurricane models should you trust in 2025? » Yale Climate Connections How the models did last year, and why you should pay the most heed to the National Hurricane Center forecast.

For hurricane nerds only: my annual roundup of which models did the best. The European and GFS models were the top track models in 2024, with the GFS making better four- and five-day forecasts. The official NHC forecast was tough to beat. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/05/whic...

Here's a look at the 2025 hurricane season, including the possibility for early June activity: www.deepsouthwx.com/2025/05/2025...

Several more days of stormy weather are possible this week: www.deepsouthwx.com/2025/05/more...

Severe storms are possible for central and northern Alabama Saturday and Sunday: www.deepsouthwx.com/2025/05/seve...

Update, The Enhanced Risk area for tomorrow has been expanded a bit to the south and east and now includes the Birmingham and Chattanooga areas, a 45% damaging wind risk area has also been added: www.deepsouthwx.com/2025/05/upda...

More severe storms possible today and tomorrow for AL and TN, then some cooler weather: www.deepsouthwx.com/2025/05/two-...

A late season front may bring a few strong storms to central and northern AL and TN. It'll be rainy and stormy through early Sunday, with maybe a few strong storms Friday and Saturday also: www.deepsouthwx.com/2025/04/a-fe...

4/9/2025 Severe storms possible tomorrow for central to north Alabama and Tennessee. I'm not expecting major impacts: www.deepsouthwx.com/2025/04/a-fe...

a large flock of penguins are walking in the snow with national geographic wild written on the bottom right ALT: a large flock of penguins are walking in the snow with national geographic wild written on the bottom right

Antarctica Tariffs Announced

It's about time those deadbeat slackers started pulling their weight...

🐧 💰 🐧 💰 🐧 💰

Some impacts are possible for part of northern Alabama and central to eastern Tennessee through tomorrow evening.

And for Saturday and Sunday

4/2/2025 We're still in a active pattern, but with the exception of a few severe storms in northern Alabama and central to eastern Tennessee most of the severe weather will stay out of our area until Saturday and Sunday: www.deepsouthwx.com/2025/04/seve...

🚨 New paper alert 🚨. My former senior thesis student and I worked on this together.

We did a comprehensive assessment of potential tornado and lightning exposure to large outdoor gatherings in the US.

#disaster #hazard #GIS #wx #sports #festival

journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...