James McCaw

I'm confident it is this new variant though. And I'm also hopeful that our real-time analyses will eventually (2026?!) be public in near real-time

Inferring temporal trends of multiple pathogens, variants, subtypes or serotypes from routine surveillance data Abstract. Estimating the temporal trends in infectious disease activity is crucial for monitoring disease spread and the impact of interventions. Surveilla

No sequencing, but by combining sub-type proportions with overall notifications and our statistical methods (academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...), ACEFA (acefa-epi-analytics.org) identified clear onset of the late H3N2 epidemic in early August this year. Sadly, reports aren't made public in real-time

UNSW School of BABS Special Seminar Peer review meltdown Carl T. Bergstrom, University of Washington Host/Chair Prof Mark Tanaka Monday 23 June 2025 1pm-2pm Mathews Theatre C You’ve seen it yourself. Peer review is coming apart at the seams. Editors face a mighty struggle to recruit reviewers. Researchers are overwhelmed with review requests. Authors wait months or longer for low-quality reviews of their work. In this talk, I present a series of simple mathematical models to illustrate what is happening and why. (1) An elite journal relies on peer review to identify the top papers; knowing the quality of the peer review process, authors self-screen and send only their best work to this journal. But when the reward from publishing in the elite journal increases, submission volume increases. (2) When submission volume increases, review quality drops as the most qualified reviews are no longer available — but we prove that when review quality drops, submission volume necessarily increases as more authors try to sneak in undeservedly. This feedback process swamps the journals with submissions and erodes the quality of review. (3) We next consider what happens as elite journals proliferate and show that, paradoxically, as the number of elite journals increases, researchers self-screen more assiduously, but the review load continues to increase. To illustrate the consequences, we consider welfare measures for authors, reviewers, and readers. (4) Finally, we explore the way in which aggressive desk rejection policies can partially check this peer review meltdown. 

Australian friends!

I'm going to be visiting Sydney in just over a week. I'll be at UNSW on June 23-25th and Macquarie on June 26-27th.

I'd love to catch up with people in person, and also will be giving (at least) two talks at UNSW.

The first is science-of-science modeling talk, on June 23:

As was I (same conference)

Diabolus Ex Machina This Is Not An Essay

Possibly the best thing I've read about ChatGPT yet.

h/t @melaniemitchell.bsky.social

amandaguinzburg.substack.com/p/diabolus-e...

For example, explaining that smoking causes lung cancer "directs people to believe one idea over another regarding health outcomes."

Helping people understand that vaccines prevent diseases and do not cause autism "directs people to believe one idea over another regarding health outcomes."

A core element of public health involves working with the public to help them understand how they can protect themselves and their neighbors from disease.

This memo (see the next post) equates this vital aspect of public communication with censorship.

Here NIH officials target contracts that "may be related to any form of censorship at all or *directing people to believe one idea over another regarding health outcomes*."

Directing people to believe one idea over another regarding health outcomes IS public health. It's also education.

A science agency wants to stop knowing which ideas are true and which ones aren’t.

Nailed it

I would very much like the researchers we already have in Australia to be properly funded, before we consider new money for poaching people from other countries. But one cannot help but contrast this ERC announcement with the narrow thinking here in Australia.

How immunity shapes the long-term dynamics of influenza H3N2 Author summary Influenza A H3N2 causes yearly epidemics in temperate regions causing substantial mortality and morbidity, particularly in older individuals. Infection with influenza elicits an immune ...

doi.org/10.1371/jour...

Very important paper that avoids saying ANZ had some easily followable approach to COVID, while at the same time drawing out genuinely general principles for pandemic response - not least that it requires but is not receiving adequate resources.

Latest post on measles vaccines and the fallacy of ‘one more study to settle things’: kucharski.substack.com/p/a-wild-vac...

In one week:
- An unnecessary study to investigate a debunked vaccine conspiracy has been authorized.
- Federal grants to study vaccine hesitancy have been rescinded.
- False conspiracies regarding measles are been pushed by health leadership.
The scale of damage this is causing will last decades.

I don't know how else to say this except for bluntly:

It is not normal to have outbreaks of preventable diseases in wealthy countries.
It is not normal to have children dying from preventable diseases in wealthy countries.

This is the first US measles death in 10 years. There should be none.

PhD position (Melbourne, Australia)
Developing an integrated modelling and health economics approach to understand Strep A transmission and control.
with Rebecca Chisholm, Angela Devine
at La Trobe University
More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2281

this is how it's done

PhD position (Melbourne, Australia)
Mathematical modelling of antivirals against influenza virus infection
with @ada-w-yan.bsky.social @jmccaw.bsky.social
at University of Melbourne
More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2268

The quadratic formula is one of the great achievements of human civilisation; artists of all people should realise that we should provide support to and education in all such endeavours regardless of immediate utility or variability in subjective enjoyment.

Open letter on importance of research in the social sciences and humanities Open letter on importance of research in the social sciences and humanities   Tēnā koe Prime Minister, The role of the Royal Society Te Apārangi, as set out in the Royal Society of New Zealand Act,...

www.royalsociety.org.nz/news/open-le...

Coalition's nuclear costs effectively comparing apples and elephants In the world of comparing apples and oranges, the Coalition's claim that its nuclear plan would be hundreds of billions cheaper than Labor's looks to have come from comparing apples and elephants.

“in seeking to conflate and confuse on its centrepiece policy, the Coalition is doing little more than treating voters like mugs, assuming they'll be more interested in style over substance.”

www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12...

Struck today looking at the {EpiNow2} contributors page how much work it takes to maintain a package over the long term.

Below link is filtered to just the maintenance period in which there has been no "output" (in the traditional academic sense).

github.com/epiforecasts...

This is so backward
1. Science is more than just commercialisable widgetry
2. Making progress on our biggest problems (climate change, infectious diseases, misinfo to name a few) will need more collaboration between STEM and hum/social sci not less.

Make no mistake, colleagues: the exclusion of humanities & social science research from national competitive funding could easily happen here in Australia. The signs & actors are already clear. We let it happen at our collective peril.

Historical revisionism on Covid threatens NZ's pandemic preparedness Comment: The Royal Commission report fundamentally validates the strategic and tactical choices made during the acute phase of the pandemic

Historical revisionism on Covid threatens NZ's pandemic preparedness, by @marcdaalder.bsky.social

newsroom.co.nz/2024/12/03/h...

Near Mt Magdala, Victoria Australia, looking towards Mt Buller.

Looking west from the Horn, Mt Buffalo, Victoria Australia

Inspired by @michaelplanknz.bsky.social 's pictures, and that hiking is one of my go-to pastimes, I thought I'd post a few photos of my favourite places in Victoria, Australia - Mt Buffalo (in colour) and near Mt Magdala (in b&w). These are from summer 2023, both covered in snow during the winter.

Well, I'm making my first post here, and it is a fun one: I have recently advertised for up to 4 post-doctoral research positions, 3-5 years in duration. If you are interested please get in touch or apply. An opportunity to work in Melbourne, great team, great city! Details at iddjobs.org: