Diana Paz García

Ecuador’s elections, organized crime, and security challenges As Ecuadorians head to the polls on February 9, security and criminal violence have overshadowed other issues.

9/ The US is stepping in—providing $7.6M for countering illegal mining & port security.
But Ecuador needs long-term, holistic solutions—not just military force.
Read our full analysis 👉 www.brookings.edu/articles/ecu...

8/ To break the cycle, Ecuador must:
✅ Move beyond HVT—dismantle mid-level crime structures
✅ Expand focus beyond cocaine—crack down on extortion & illegal mining,
✅ Strengthen judicial independence & purge corruption
✅ Upgrade security without compromising human rights

7/ Yet, Noboa’s “mano dura” policies are popular—he leads with 36.9% in the polls.
But will Plan Fenix be enough? Or will Ecuador repeat the same failed strategies seen in Latin America?

6/ Worse? Crime is infiltrating politics.
🔴 Assassinations of political candidates are rising
🔴 Judges & prosecutors are being assassinated—15 since 2022
🔴 The Metastasis scandal exposed ties between officials & organized crime

This is undermining the State’s legitimacy

5/ Why should the US care?
🚨 Ecuador’s violence fuels migration & transnational crime
🚨 Mexican cartels now cut short-term deals with multiple Ecuadorian groups -- leading to more bloodshed
🚨 Criminal groups are now bypassing middlemen, directly exporting cocaine to Europe

4/ Ecuador’s criminal landscape has shattered.
Like in MX, due to HVT, OCGs are splintering . With mid-level commanders fighting for control, violence is expanding.
Plus, gangs aren’t just trafficking drugs— now, they’re running illegal mining, human smuggling & extortion rings

3/ After brazen attacks in Guayaquil in 2024, President Noboa declared an "internal armed conflict," designating 22 criminal groups as terrorist organizations.
His military crackdown & high-value targeting (HVT) helped reduce homicides by 16.5%—but violence isn’t going away. Here’s why:

2/ Once an "island of peace," Ecuador is now one of the most violent countries in the region.
📈 Homicides: ⬆️ 430% in 5 years
💰 Extortion & kidnappings: soaring
🪖 Criminal groups: expanding & fragmenting
How did we get here? And what’s next? ⬇️

Ecuador’s elections, organized crime, and security challenges As Ecuadorians head to the polls on February 9, security and criminal violence have overshadowed other issues.

🧵 1/ Ahead of the Feb 9 presidential election, Vanda Felbab-Brown and I examine Ecuador's escalating security crisis and its implications for the nation and the U.S. Our analysis delves into the surge in violence and the challenges facing the country www.brookings.edu/articles/ecu...

Harm reduction and its role in improving health outcomes in an era of fentanyl Reducing harm is a core element of public health and is intertwined with another fundamental tenet of public health—health promotion.

Thank you @brookingsinst.bsky.social and Vanda Felbab-Brown for a great discussion on all things fentanyl. Find our paper here www.brookings.edu/articles/har...