Caitlin Talmadge

Probably the first time that idle shitposting has resulted in concrete changes to an adversary’s nuclear posture.

Europe’s roads and rail unfit for war with Russia, EU transport chief warns Brussels aims to spend €17bn on upgrading transport networks to be prepared for conflict

Hard to deter if you can't get to the fight: "If Nato’s tanks were called to respond to an invasion by Moscow’s forces across the EU’s eastern border, they would get stuck in tunnels, cause bridges to collapse and get snarled up in border protocols" www.ft.com/content/d77d...

Think also about Japanese reactions to Chinese nuclear modernization. Why do they care?

Well, this is the kind of thing one doesn't say in polite company, but I'm thinking here of things like NATO reactions to strategic arms control in the 70s, allied reactions to any whiff of US NFU pledge. Notion that US sits back & accepts MAD consistently freaks out allies under nuclear umbrella.

But this is in the eye of the beholder-- the allies. They can certainly come to a different conclusion regarding their own security. But I was struck by the WSJ piece b/c it implies they still want US as backstop. We shall see!

Allies historically have been deeply uncomfortable with MAD & have believed US efforts to escape it strengthen general deterrence & tolerance for risk in crises.

Israel’s 12-Day War Revealed Alarming Gap in America’s Missile Stockpile American missile-defense systems played a crucial role in protecting Israel during its conflict with Iran. But the war revealed gaps in U.S. supplies and strategy.

Beyond issues with interceptor quantity, "U.S. ships had to head to port in the Med or the Red Sea after shooting all of their interceptors, because the Navy doesn’t yet have a reliable way to reload at sea." Significant implications here for conflict in Indo-Pacific www.wsj.com/world/israel...

I think it comes down to whether French promises to protect allies are credible when adversary can (VERY) asymmetrically hold the French homeland at risk. Allies may say no & seek to keep US as ultimate backstop while still bolstering Euro capabilities (which I am in favor of).

The meaning of China’s nuclear modernization Will China’s nuclear modernization threaten U.S. security? Will it destabilize East Asia, creating new strategic problems for U.S. allies and partners? And will it make conventional war more likely...

And: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Why China Wants More and Better Nukes China is expanding its nuclear arsenal, a move that might lead China to take more risks with its conventional forces.

For more on these themes: www.foreignaffairs.com/china/why-ch...

Chinese perspectives on strategic stability engagement with the United States | Brookings This article reviews Chinese authors’ discussions of strategic stability and the ways to reduce the risk of nuclear war.

Good discussion of US & China views on strategic stability. Would just note China need not worry about US damage limitation capability unless it plans to challenge the status quo by force, notably regarding Taiwan. Virtually only scenario where relevant.
www.brookings.edu/articles/chi...

U.S. deportees, freed from Salvadoran prison, describe ‘horror movie’ Three Venezuelans, released last week from the Terrorism Confinement Center, said they were repeatedly beaten and denied access to lawyers.

Absolutely horrific. Oh and "many of the migrants the administration removed had entered the United States legally and were complying with U.S. immigration rules." www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

Must read. This is criminal conduct, full stop.

Wow, today is just filled with explosive news that is completely unsurprising.

Randy Schriver is spot on here regarding U.S. economic and defense policies in Asia working at cross-purposes
www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...

Germany’s Call for French Nuclear Protection Gets Reality Check Talks between Berlin and Paris about expanding the scope of France’s deterrent against Russian aggression are shaping up as an evolution, not a revolution.

Let's say the quiet part out loud: w/o French damage limitation capability vs Russia, which France is nowhere remotely close to achieving, promises to extend nuclear umbrella over Germany lack credibility.
www.wsj.com/world/europe...

How Russia Could Exploit a Vacuum in Europe The dangers of a rapid drawdown in American forces.

As this article correctly notes, Europe’s lack of strategic mobility is critical. No matter how many forces Europe builds, if it can’t move them to NATO’s eastern flank quickly enough, they won’t deter Russia effectively. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Army Europe chief unveils NATO eastern flank defense plan The U.S. Army in Europe, along with NATO allies, wants to pursue optionally manned common launchers and munitions to deter Russia on the Eastern flank.

Fairly clear signal to Russia that Kaliningrad is not off limits in the event of an attack on NATO's eastern flank
www.defensenews.com/land/2025/07...

How China Curbed Its Oil Addiction—and Blunted a U.S. Pressure Point The Chinese government is boosting domestic production and the EV industry in the name of national security. There are 14 million chargers nationwide.

More evidence that US efforts to coerce China in a Taiwan conflict by closing Straits of Malacca unlikely to be successful
www.wsj.com/world/china/...

USAF Denies It Refueled Israel's Fighters During War With Iran Without U.S. tanker support and with just a handful of geriatric KC-707 tankers, Israel appears to have relied on other tactics to persistently reach deep into Iran.

"The fact that, according to the USAF, Israel did this without the help of clandestine USAF tanking is remarkable." Yes, it really is. Further testament to sophistication of IAF operations against Iran.
www.twz.com/air/u-s-deni...

Then: Epstein File is deep state conspiracy, Houthi attacks must be met with force, Zelenskyy is going to start WW 3, NATO is a scam

Now: never mind

Major Power Rivalry and Domestic Politics in South Asia There are important differences in whether and how domestic players in third-party states in Asia mobilize external major power rivalry in their own internal politics, ranging from making it central to their political strategies to ignoring major power competition in favor of a purely internal focus.

My new report from the Carnegie Endowment offers a framework for understanding how major power competition plays out within "swing" states - focused on South Asia but with applicability beyond - and a set of implications for contemporary US foreign policy:
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

‘I Run the Country and the World’ Donald Trump believes he’s invincible. But the cracks are beginning to show.

“I think he’s gonna get it together,” Trump said of Hegseth.
www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc...

Taiwan’s military takes preparation for Chinese invasion to civilians’ doorsteps Annual Han Kuang exercises focus on more realistic scenarios of defending dense urban sprawl

Important and overdue www.ft.com/content/4dcc...

Yes, US has always had 2 competing objectives in Ukraine: preventing Russian victory and deterring Russian escalation. Balancing those 2 requires nuance, calibration, and careful choices, rather than swinging between extremes.

Australia’s Anthony Albanese walks US-China tightrope in Xi Jinping meeting PM raises concerns over live fire naval exercises even as he seeks to strengthen economic ties

It's almost like America needs an Indo-Pacific economic policy that's integrated with its overall grand strategy.
www.ft.com/content/57e1...

Donald Trump asked Volodymyr Zelenskyy if Ukraine could hit Moscow, say people briefed on call US president encouraged Ukrainian leader to step up deep strikes on Russia

I'm old enough to remember when Trump was lecturing Zelenskyy about gambling with World War III
www.ft.com/content/b66f...

Israel could not have done this operation a year or two ago, at least not without significant losses of personnel and equipment. It was not just the adversary air defense environment that dramatically weakened during this time-- Israel's own offensive ability to project air power radically improved.

Israeli Air Force raced to ready aging jets for the most dangerous attack in its history With a worn fleet, global backlash and little time, Israel launched a massive air operation against Iran; Backed by secret diplomacy, 3D printing, and CENTCOM support, IDF pulled off a high-risk strik...

Eye-popping account of the Israeli effort to ready its Air Force for the Iran campaign, with quiet but vast help from other states. “The Air Force was rearmed over the past year with a decade’s worth of munitions and systems." www.ynetnews.com/magazine/art...

New Fuzes For GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators Requested By USAF The USAF is looking for options to improve and expand its arsenal of MOPs, which were used for the first time recently to strike Iran.

"The total size of the existing MOP inventory is classified, but Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin said at a hearing before members of the Senate Appropriations Committee on June 26 that it is currently being expanded." www.twz.com/air/new-fuze...