@proftalmadge.bsky.social
MIT professor, Brookings senior fellow, series editor at Cornell Press ⎮ Foreign policy, military operations, civil-military relations, nuclear weapons, authoritarianism ⎮ Views are my own ⎮ Book: The Dictator's Army https://www.caitlintalmadge.com/
My latest on the Iranian threat to the Strait of Hormuz in @foreignaffairs.com
www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/hormuz-...
Well, there it is. Mines laid by small boats.
This excellent WSJ piece explains that U.S. has not provided naval escorts to tankers because of the risks of Iranian attack on U.S. warships close to Iran's shores. NOTE: All these same concerns would apply to any effort to employ mine clearance platforms in the Gulf.
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
No rally-round-the-flag effect so far here in the US but possibly one emerging in Iran. Incredibly sad and also predictable.
www.ft.com/content/4e04...
Iran retaining significant launch capabilities, if that is the case, makes doing things like mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz potentially much more difficult. The missile problem and the mine problem are potentially interconnected and greater than the sum of their parts.
Pleased to speak with @economist.com for this excellent discussion of Iran's threat to the Strait of Hormuz
www.economist.com/middle-east-...
Growing concern that Iran retains significant stocks of missiles and launchers.
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/u...
Very thorny military problem without an easy solution given geography of the Strait--if Iran prepared and US did not prevent. 6/6
U.S. efforts to go in and clear the mines-- a process that can take weeks-- would then make US surface vessels vulnerable to Iranian anti-ship cruise missiles, drones, and small boat attacks. 5/
Mines are very unlikely to sink a tanker. But they could disable one in a manner that would impede shipping, and the fear of mines would probably scare other traffic out of the Strait. 4/
...If Iran distributed mines before the war to hundreds or even thousands of small craft up and down the coast, and can engage in minimal coordination of them, Iran's odds of being able to lay some decent minefields (say, in the hundreds) go up considerably. 3/
One would think the heavy US strikes would have focused on destroying Iranian mine stocks and mine laying vessels. But... 2/
Concerning reports that Iran is attempting to mine the Strait of Hormuz. 1/
www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-mi...
Hegseth insistence on referring to U.S. service personnel only as "my brothers," guys, men, etc. is so incredibly disrespectful to all the women who have served and died in combat, including Sergeant First Class Nicole Amor, who was killed in Kuwait last week.
This is consistent w/ pattern of strikes observed on the southern coast since the war started and is one of the main reasons, along with persistent US ISR, that I doubt Iran will be able to engage in wide-scale mine-laying in the Strait. 2/2
Gen. Caine confirms US focused on taking out Iranian mine-laying capabilities: "US CENTCOM continues today to hunt and strike mine-laying vessels and mine storage vessels. This work will continue." 1/2
www.wkyc.com/video/news/n...
"If the American way of war can’t work against Iran, a weak regime with a middling military, there is no chance that it will work in a much harder case — China, say." Excellent piece by Jacquelyn Schneider www.ft.com/content/9fae...
This is a technical story with stunning strategic implications. It is quite possible the US launched a massive war because Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff lacked the technical expertise to even understand what the Iranians were offering in negotiations. Absolute idiocy.
www.ms.now/news/trump-i...
Hat tip to @profsaunders.bsky.social for sharing the CNN article. 4/4
This problem was completely foreseeable before the war, by the way. It is a function of the geography of the Strait, and Iran has prepared to leverage it for decades. 3/4
Because escorting tankers through the Strait would make U.S. ships & helos significantly more vulnerable to Iranian attack, especially from shore-based fires that the U.S.-Israeli campaign has probably not eliminated yet. 2/4
Wondering why the U.S. Navy doesn't simply go in and escort tankers through the Strait? 1/4 www.cnn.com/2026/03/09/b...
I personally am not as concerned about Iranian mine threats to tankers as I am about projectiles, but POTUS statement simply isn't true. 4/4
The U.S. would likely need help from allies to conduct a major clearance operation today. It would be time consuming and bring vulnerable ships and helicopters very close to Iran's shores. 3/4
The U.S. Navy has never prioritized this mission. It retired its last dedicated mine countermeasure ship in 2025. 2/4
Regarding Iran's threats to the Strait, Trump claims, "We have the greatest mine sweeping ability." Um, no. 1/4
Actually explains most of Trump's decisions.
Apple picking in the fall is an "excursion." Seven Americans are dead.
Did I just hear him say Iran has Tomahawks
