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Andy Craig

@andycraig.bsky.social

@theunpopulist.net Election law and policy, liberalism and democracy, and occasional pugs.

49,879 Followers  |  922 Following  |  5,251 Posts  |  Joined: 25.06.2023  |  2.3994

Latest posts by andycraig.bsky.social on Bluesky

It's such a feature of the French system that the standard name for it is a sex joke.

05.12.2025 05:44 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I don't know about continental Europe on this, but in Canada minority governments are common because the norm is to do that instead of forming a coalition.

In any event, pretty rich for the guy governing on a plurality of the vote to attack systems where parties can govern on a plurality.

05.12.2025 05:40 β€” πŸ‘ 30    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Only 8 of the 30 European NATO members (plus Canada) currently have minority governments, and in most of those it's not unusual. Confidence and supply agreements provide a kind of half-in half-out option for a smaller party in systems where multiparty coalition governments are the norm.

05.12.2025 05:36 β€” πŸ‘ 53    πŸ” 12    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 1

Which isn't to say the substance of the GOP hasn't radically changed, it has. But its voter base mostly hasn't.

05.12.2025 02:48 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I think you can plausibly argue there was a distinct party system ~ 1964 through the end of the 90s, but there's remarkably little discontinuity between 2000 and today.

05.12.2025 02:47 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
2024 counties election map

2024 counties election map

2004 counties election map

2004 counties election map

We might get one soon-ish, but I don't think the Trump era yet counts as a major realignment to a new era / party system. The parties and their respective coalitions are effectively unchanged with only slight shifts around the margins. The substance has changed, but the voter patterns barely at all.

05.12.2025 02:44 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Publishing all the other boat murder videos but refusing to release the one of the two survivors being killed is an admission they know exactly how bad it looks. There's no other distinction to draw there, no reason to publish the others while withholding that one.

05.12.2025 02:32 β€” πŸ‘ 1665    πŸ” 426    πŸ’¬ 18    πŸ“Œ 12

There are only two 20th C. conflicts for which it is acceptable to cheer for the British, and that's one.

05.12.2025 02:18 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Trump’s Pardons Cover Every Conceivable Form of Corruption He is doling them to crooks, cronies, campaign contributors, violent insurrectionists, child sex offenders, convicted drug dealers, and others

Trump's transformation of the presidential pardon power into an all-purpose instrument for his most depraved and corrupt instincts is truly horrifying.

@tracinski.bsky.social lays it all out in his latest for @theunpopulist.net

Read this and weep

05.12.2025 00:18 β€” πŸ‘ 60    πŸ” 19    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Double-tap is very misleading here, it implies strikes in quick succession. They scratched their loathsome chins about it for 41 minutes, watching these two guys struggle to overturn their wrecked boat, before deciding nah, hit 'em again

05.12.2025 01:46 β€” πŸ‘ 544    πŸ” 109    πŸ’¬ 12    πŸ“Œ 2

Extrajudicial killing as fan service.

05.12.2025 01:53 β€” πŸ‘ 585    πŸ” 40    πŸ’¬ 8    πŸ“Œ 1

You don't spend 41 minutes debating what to do if there was nobody objecting.

05.12.2025 01:41 β€” πŸ‘ 235    πŸ” 38    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 0

This isn't just striking down a protection for minority voters, it is overtly granting a special privilege to white voters.

05.12.2025 01:20 β€” πŸ‘ 59    πŸ” 11    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Another way of putting it is the DOJ told TX you aren't allowed to have districts where white voters, and only white voters in particular, are a plurality but not a majority.

05.12.2025 01:19 β€” πŸ‘ 52    πŸ” 9    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

The explicit rationale DOJ told TX to use, which Abbot & co. then did, is that you can have a district where white + black voters, or white + Hispanic voters, or white/black/Hispanic on their own, constitute a majority, but not a black + Hispanic majority. That's how facially discriminatory it is.

05.12.2025 01:16 β€” πŸ‘ 119    πŸ” 24    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 0

The dripping contempt the right wing SCOTUS majority holds for district judges is truly a sight to behold every time. When they deign to give actual reasons for their shadow docket holdings, it’s β€œlook at the absolute idiots who keep getting everything wrong!”

04.12.2025 23:31 β€” πŸ‘ 9770    πŸ” 2098    πŸ’¬ 302    πŸ“Œ 88

The language about β€œrelated to events at or near the Capitol on Jan 6” would be broad enough to cover the pipe bomber, but the specification of who is covered by the pardon doesn’t.

04.12.2025 23:25 β€” πŸ‘ 20    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The proclamation only pardons those who were already convicted, and the handful of named individuals who instead got commutations, and directs DOJ to seek dismissal of any pending cases. Only hook would be arguing the latter applies to a new case. Probably not, and still wouldn’t be pardon as such.

04.12.2025 23:23 β€” πŸ‘ 36    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Grand juries suddenly becoming a real live check on abuse of power and politically motivated prosecutions is like constitutional Rip Van Winkle.

04.12.2025 22:44 β€” πŸ‘ 162    πŸ” 25    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 1

Entirely possible they've botched it or will in some other way. But seems reasonably likely they got the right guy. The litany of purchases isn't just generic parts, it's many particular items that were used with high specificity. Plus they have him at the location by cell + car. That's pretty bad.

04.12.2025 22:39 β€” πŸ‘ 28    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 0

Americans will tolerate their government doing all kinds of bad things, but do tend to get more squeamish when they have to actually see it over and over again because the "ha ha watch us kill these people" videos are plastered all over every bit of news coverage.

04.12.2025 22:29 β€” πŸ‘ 87    πŸ” 6    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 0

Generally speaking, it's not a great plan for getting away with war crimes to proudly share gruesome videos of your war crimes.

04.12.2025 22:22 β€” πŸ‘ 150    πŸ” 13    πŸ’¬ 8    πŸ“Œ 2

They made a mistake from the beginning, not just morally but tactically, in gleefully releasing all their boat murder snuff films and blasting them out wall-to-wall so everyone sees them a million times. Can hardly plead now 'no, this one would be too gruesome, we don't release that kind of stuff.'

04.12.2025 22:21 β€” πŸ‘ 629    πŸ” 141    πŸ’¬ 13    πŸ“Œ 3

This was a war crime in the age of sail.

04.12.2025 22:15 β€” πŸ‘ 50    πŸ” 13    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

You can't get any farther from a hostile combatant than somebody who is literally asking for your help.

04.12.2025 22:13 β€” πŸ‘ 89    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

At least one other boat, the one with the Colombian fisherman, was adrift and displaying a distress signal with its engine out of the water. To attack a disabled vessel in distress and signaling for assistance is basically in the same category as killing shipwrecked survivors clinging to wreckage.

04.12.2025 22:13 β€” πŸ‘ 857    πŸ” 223    πŸ’¬ 14    πŸ“Œ 7

"who these people are" = they're cartel members, pinky swear. They don't even have names, much less any evidence a particular person was involved in criminal activity.

04.12.2025 21:35 β€” πŸ‘ 37    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

"who these people are" is deliberately weasel-worded to dance around saying they know actual individual identities, which they obviously don't

04.12.2025 21:32 β€” πŸ‘ 136    πŸ” 38    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 1

If that litany of so many specific purchases plus the cell phone location records are all true, I don't have much doubt they got the right guy. Though you're right it may well have been rushed.

04.12.2025 20:43 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

rand paul is the vote that put Hegseth in office.

it's good that he's flipped now, but god damn it.

04.12.2025 20:38 β€” πŸ‘ 96    πŸ” 15    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 2

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