The Downballot

Missouri Senate leader says special session is ‘likely’ to redraw congressional map  • Missouri Independent Momentum is building for the Missouri Legislature to redraw the state’s congressional districts with the aim of gaining a Republican seat.

Missouri Senate president pro tem Cindy O’Layghlin says that a special session to redraw the state’s congressional map is ‘likely.’

missouriindependent.com/2025/08/02/m...

Claiming Dems haven’t supported a national gerrymandering ban is false.

House Dems passed it in 2021 & 48/50 Senate Dems voted to curb the filibuster to pass it. Only Sinema & Manchin dissented.

SCOTUS also split along party lines in 2019 when the GOP justices said federal courts can’t overturn it

Of note, Texas Republicans have held total control of state government since 2002. They could have tried to pass a constitutional amendment to change the state’s quorum rules at any point.

Gov. Greg Abbott sets Nov. 4 special election to fill U.S. Rep. Sylvester Turner’s seat The decision to wait until November means a narrowly divided Congress will be down a Democratic representative for most of 2025.

www.texastribune.org/2025/04/07/g...

Texas House Dems response to Abbott mailchi.mp/texashousede...

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton fled his home to avoid being served with subpoena, court record says In an affidavit, a process server said that the state’s top attorney tried to evade him as he attempted to deliver a subpoena from an abortion fund’s lawsuit against the state.

Abbott cites an opinion from AG Ken Paxton claiming that lawmakers who leave the state can be expelled.

So, chaser:

That amounts to an abandonment or forfeiture of an elected state office. When the Governor calls a Special Session, our Constitution provides that the “Legislature shall meet.” TEX. CONST. art. III, § 5 (emphasis added). It’s not optional. It’s a duty. The absconded Democrat House members were elected to meet and vote on legislation—not to prevent votes that may not go their way. Every session, legislators on both sides of the aisle find themselves on the losing side of a legislative vote. And every session, most of those legislators find a way to disagree agreeably and behave like adults, rather than going AWOL. This truancy ends now. The derelict Democrat House members must return to Texas and be in attendance when the House reconvenes at 3:00 PM on Monday, August 4, 2025. For any member who fails to do so, I will invoke Texas Attorney General Opinion No. KP-0382 to remove the missing Democrats from membership in the Texas House. In that Opinion, the Attorney General considered “whether Texas law allows for a determination that a legislator has vacated office” if they intentionally break quorum. The Attorney General concluded that “whether a specific legislator abandoned his or her office such that a vacancy occurred will be a fact question for a court.” He further concluded that “through a quo warranto action, a district court may determine that a legislator has forfeited his or her office due to abandonment and can remove the legislator from office, thereby creating a vacancy.” That empowers me to swiftly fill vacancies under Article III, Section 13 of the Texas Constitution. In addition to abandoning their offices, these legislators may also have committed felonies. Many absentee Democrats are soliciting funds to evade the fines they will incur under House rules. Any Democrat who “solicits, accepts, or agrees to accept” such funds to assist in the violation of legislative duties or for purposes of skipping a vote may have violated bribery laws. See TEX. PENAL…

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has issued a statement saying he will seek to expel Dems who've left the state from office, adding that he would have the power to fill any vacancies that result.

He's also warning that Dems could face criminal prosecution under TX bribery laws. gov.texas.gov/news/post/go...

YouTube video by JB Pritzker WATCH LIVE: Governor Pritzker and Democratic Texas Legislators Speak

Another link, in case the one above isn't working www.youtube.com/watch?v=QusI...

YouTube video by FOX 4 Dallas-Fort Worth 🔴LIVE: Texas House Democrats break quorum over redistricting

Texas House Democrats' press conference explaining their quorum break is starting now: www.youtube.com/watch?v=px6g...

$500 www.texastribune.org/2023/01/11/t...

Democrat Forrest Dunbar was on Nat Guard training in Poland and got personal leave, and bought his own ticket, to get back to AK and vote for the override.

If you are wondering why the special session was scheduled when he was in Poland, well, I'm thinking no one imagined he would do what he did

For folks wondering why Dems in Congress haven't tried something similar, the rules for quorum are entirely different. In Congress, only a simple majority is needed for a quorum. The same is true for nearly all state legislatures.

TX is rare in having a supermajority quorum requirement.

For the TX legislators who fled the state, they may be using one of the very few tools now available to prevent Texas from unconstitutionally using state power to effectuate an excessive partisan gerrymander.

That is, they're trying to keep their oath, with the only meaningful tool available.

Regardless of what ultimately happens with the TX GOP's new gerrymander, it's important to fight for democracy, especially in such a visible, high-profile way. The D quorum-break will help shine an even brighter light on this.

You don't fight because you expect to win. You fight because it's right.

So, what happens next? It depends in part on how long Dems (who will each face a $500/day fine) can hold out.

Abbott can keep calling special sessions. TX's candidate filing deadline is Dec. 8 & primary March 3, though the GOP could try to delay those, too.

Texas House Dems just put out a press release confirming they've left the state in sufficient numbers to deny the GOP a quorum to pass its new gerrymander. A press conference is scheduled for 7:15 PM (presumably CT). mailchi.mp/texashousede...

Texas House Democrats to flee the state in bid to block GOP’s proposed congressional map The lawmakers’ absence means the lower chamber won’t have enough members present to function, stalling passage of a draft map Democrats have condemned as a political power grab.

Per the @texastribune.org, a sufficient number of Dems in the Texas state House are headed out of state to break quorum, which would at least temporarily deprive Republicans of the ability to pass a new gerrymander. (At least 51 of 62 Dems need to be absent.)

Here's how three recent elections would have gone in each of the five Dem-held districts the TX GOP is targeting with their new gerrymander.

2024 prez (Trump wins state by 14): All five go red

2020 prez (Trump wins state by 6): Three go red

2018 Senate (Cruz wins state by 2.5): Two go red

CORDER LIST: 606 U.S.) FRIDAY, AUGUST 1, 2025 24-109 24-110 ORDER IN PENDING CASES LOUISIANA V. CALLAIS, PHILLIP, ET AL. ROBINSON, PRESS, ET AL. V. CALLAIS, PHILLIP, ET AL. The parties are directed to file supplemental briefs addressing the following question raised on pages 36-38 of the Brief for Appellees: Whether the State's intentional creation of a second majority-minority congressional district violates the Fourteenth or Fifteenth Amendments to the U. S. Constitution. Supplemental briefs for appellants are due on or before Wednesday, August 27, 2025. Supplemental brief for appellees is due on or before Wednesday, September 17, 2025. Reply briefs are due on or before 2 p.m., Friday, October 3, 2025. The time to file amicus curiae briefs is as provided for by this Court's Rule 37.3. Word limits and cover colors for the briefs should correspond to the provisions of this Court's Rule 33.1(g) pertaining to briefs on the merits rather than to the provision pertaining to supplemental

😬The Supreme Court will consider whether the intentional creation of a majority-minority congressional district violates the 14th or 15th Amendments.

If the answer is yes, SCOTUS will effectively declare that what remains of the Voting Rights Act is unconstitutional. This is very, very ominous.

She's the GOP nominee for governor of Virginia, an election that's taking place in November.

From today's Nir & Rupar: @davidnir.com breaks down how Texas Republicans are trying to engineer a 60 point (!) rightward swing in Al Green's distract as part of their new ultra-gerrymandered congressional map.

Full episode: www.publicnotice.co/p/republican...

You’ve gotta check out Aaron’s clips of Winsome Earle-Sears’ meltdown on CNN today. Not the hallmark of a winning candidate.

LIVE SOON: Republicans are rigging the maps Starting Aug 1 at 2:00 PM EDT

Going live with @davidnir.com at 2pm eastern to talk Texas redistricting, new Epstein developments, and more! Tune in:

Morning Digest: Texas GOP unveils new gerrymander targeting five Democratic seats We analyze the changes—many dramatic—to all five districts

From yesterday's @the-downballot.com: Texas GOP unveils new gerrymander targeting five Democratic seats

The five GOP targets are Latino (Cuellar, Gonzalez, Casar), Black (Green) and a Lesbian (Johnson) - a GOP Trifecta

www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...

Democrats lead in House generic ballot polls by 2.3 points How our new generic ballot average works, and what a 2-3 point Dem. win would look like in Congress

This is incredible public service journalism from @gelliottmorris.com and Strength In Numbers. Having a continually updated polling average of the generic congressional ballot—an important metric for understanding elections—is just invaluable. Support their work!

Hawaii politics often does not get the attention it deserves on the mainland, but this is a major primary challenge.

Case was one of just four House Ds to support the GOP’s “SAVE” Act, which requires showing proof of citizenship before registering to vote. The others were Cuellar, Golden & MGP.

Hawaii Democrats have been reluctant to eject their incumbents, but there's one big exception. Last year the powerful House speaker lost his primary in what governor called "somewhat of a shock to the system at the Legislature." We'll see if there's a lot more voltage in 2026.

In 2006, a primary challenger in Hawaii argued that Democrats should dump the far-older incumbent to "phase in the next generation." That primary challenger was Ed Case.

Morning Digest: Conservative Hawaii Democrat earns high-profile primary challenge "You’re not an independent if you’re voting with Donald Trump," says a top surrogate

State Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole is challenging Hawaii Rep. Ed Case, who has long been one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress, in primary. Case is no fan of what he sees as Keohokalole's argument that "I owe 100% of my votes, 100% of my positions, to one part of the Democratic Party."

Democrats Regain Advantage in Party Affiliation Americans' party identification has shifted from a Republican advantage in 2024 to a Democratic advantage in the second quarter of 2025.

Gallup: Americans’ party affiliation has flipped back toward the Democratic Party after the Republican Party held advantages for most of 2023 and 2024.

news.gallup.com/poll/692978/...