David R. Kotok

Tariff rebate checks may sound awesome but they could be ‘quite dangerous’ | CNN Business President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff regime is generating so much revenue for the federal government that Washington could eventually return some of that windfall to taxpayers.

Layering rebate check on top of tariffs risks causing a more widespread and lasting inflation increase, according to David Kotok.
“That is a very serious risk. And if you do it as the workforce is shrinking...then you risk triggering a wage-price spiral.”
www.cnn.com/2025/08/08/b...

David R. Kotok reports in from Tomah Stream with about 40 friends fresh from catching fish and ready for lunch. He shares his anticipation and gives us a tease about tonight's talk that will occur at… Camp Kotok Update - David R. Kotok - Tomah Stream, Lunch, Catching Fish, and Tonight's Talk

Reporting in from #CampKotok w/ about 40 friends fresh from catching fish and ready for lunch. Tonight's talk at Leen's Lodge will revolve around defense, war, and their significance globally. Some panels will be on the record and we'll share takeaways. www.youtube.com/shorts/i78aU...

On Fed Independence: Kathleen Hays Interviews Bob Eisenbeis and Charles Plosser

Eisenbeis: The Fed is not guilty of anything but doing its mandated job — and well.

Plosser: Independent central banks have better policy outcomes.

dkotok.substack.com/p/on-fed-ind...

David R. Kotok gives us a quick update from Tomah Stream and Ray's Fishing Cabin, his long-time fishing guide and member of the Passamaquoddy Native American tribe. Tomorrow, the scene will be very… Camp Kotok Update - David R. Kotok - Tomah Stream, Ray's Fishing Cabin, & Conversation to Come

A quick update from Tomah Stream & Ray's Fishing Cabin. Ray is David's long-time fishing guide & member of the Passamaquoddy Native American tribe. Tomorrow, the scene will be very different w/ dozens of people having lunch & engaging in conversation. www.youtube.com/shorts/SCGtt... #CampKotok

YouTube video by David R. Kotok Camp Kotok Update - David R. Kotok: Plenty to talk about at Camp Kotok this week!

Plenty to talk about at Camp Kotok this week!

David says it's a full house this week with 50 people at peak. The news cycle is full of economic and geopolitical news so you can be sure there will be lots of spirited debate at #CampKotok! And David caught a fish 😁

youtube.com/shorts/rNdQv...

Kotok Quick Take: On Campobello Island Join me for a quick video visit to Campobello Island and the Roosevelts’ summer home there.

My destination is Camp Kotok. On Saturday, a visit to Campobello Island and the summer home of Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt. According to the tour guide, it's the only property that is owned by a collaborative arrangement between Canada and the USA.(2 minutes). dkotok.substack.com/p/kotok-quic...

Summer Reading List 2025 | Robert H. Smith School of Business Get ready for summer with the 22nd Annual Summer Reading List for Business Leaders—featuring Smith School faculty picks on investing, neuroscience, human connection, and more, including a novel…

The 22nd Annual Summer Reading List for Business Leaders has recommendations from University of Maryland Robert H. Smith School of Business faculty and we're on it! I invite you to read my book, "The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks" www.rhsmith.umd.edu/research/sum...

I round out this missive with a collaboratively produced update on health-related matters. I would like to thank Elizabeth Sweet for partnering with me.

We discuss:

• Childhood Vaccinations Down

• Measles Cases Up

• HIV/AIDS & PEPFAR

• H5N1 Bird Flu

Join me: dkotok.substack.com/p/jobs-repor...

Jobs Report and Health Update I comment following Friday’s dismal jobs report, and we turn to a healthcare-related update.

Jobs Report and Health Update dkotok.substack.com/p/jobs-repor...

YouTube video by David R. Kotok Kotok Report Quick Take - David checks in from the Roosevelt's Summer Home on Campobello Island

Hello from Maine! Wait! I mean Canada!

youtube.com/shorts/wt1VW...

YouTube video by David R. Kotok KotokReport.com Quick Take — The August 01, 2025 Labor Report

Today's Labor Report?

youtube.com/shorts/r7KDU...

We find that the Trump tariff policy appears to generate an economic shock equivalent to a tax increase of over $2 a gallon on gasoline.

dkotok.substack.com/p/market-dis...

Trade Updates & Latest Tariff News | TariffCheck.org Latest trade policy updates, tariff changes, and international trade news. Real-time notifications and analysis from TariffCheck.org.

The latest estimates indicate that the tariff policy shock will exceed $300 billion a year. Will that be an accurate number? Nobody knows.

Some readers have asked for a way to understand this impact. It is a fair question. Join us to explore this impact here: dkotok.substack.com/p/market-dis...

California Live Podcast Elevates Economic Discourse With David Kotok The California Live Podcast has long stood at the intersection of policy, business, and culture, but its 106th episode marks

This conversation modeled a kind of intellectual steadiness. Both hosts gave Kotok the space to explore ideas at length, and the result was a rich, nuanced exchange rarely seen outside top-tier financial summits.

hudsonweekly.com/california-l...

The American military establishment has long understood the risk of sickness and disease.
Fact is, disease has killed more soldiers throughout all wars than swords, arrows, bullets, and bombs have. Military commanders from General Washington to General Eisenhower knew this. www.thefedandtheflu.com

Science evolves. New evidence and research compels us to change our "opinions" when new information comes forth. It's not negative to acknowledge new discoveries but some take more time than others and are weighted when health is at stake. Covid research is global and ongoing.

Antisemitism, Grok, and Joseph Goebbels Grok explains its “Mechahitler”; we compare Joseph Goebbels’ propaganda use of radio and the history of antisemitism.

It is a grave error to edge even one inch closer to repeating the most horrific mistakes of the past. The warning of George Santayana applies: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
dkotok.substack.com/p/antisemiti...

Antisemitism, Grok, and Joseph Goebbels Grok explains its “Mechahitler”; we compare Joseph Goebbels’ propaganda use of radio and the history of antisemitism.

Grok explains its “Mechahitler”; we compare Joseph Goebbels’ propaganda use of radio and the history of antisemitism. dkotok.substack.com/p/antisemiti...

David R. Kotok is a renowned economist and co‑founder of Cumberland Advisors, where he has served as CEO, CIO, and board chair since 1973.  Kotok is also a prolific author—his latest book, The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks, was released in February 2025, and his market insights are regularly featured in The New York Times, Barron’s, Bloomberg and more. We’re thrilled to have him join us to share his unique perspective on the Fed and fiscal dominance, as interviewed by our managing partner, Chad Seegers, CRPC®. The Fed & Fiscal Dominance: A Historical Perspective- An Interview with David Kotok & Chad Seegers

David R. Kotok shares his unique perspective on the Fed and fiscal dominance, as interviewed by Insight Wealth Strategies, LLC's managing partner, Chad Seegers, CRPC®.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5rv...

Dear Clients & Friends, Thank you for watching Cumberland Advisors’ Friday, July 25, 2025 Week in Review, our end-of-week update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Matt C. McAleer, President & Director of Private Wealth, and John R. Mousseau, Chief Investment Officer. Please send any feedback from today’s video to Matt McAleer. Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewcmcaleer LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/ Call Matt: (800) 257-7013 ext. 346 Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013 Have a great weekend, -Matt, John & Cumberland Advisors "Examining a Sale" — Week in Review

Cumberland Advisors’ Friday, July 25, 2025 Week in Review www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdDX...

Markets Discussion Series Part 6: Where Is the Dollar Going and Why? The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) is beginning to reflect US policy now aimed at weakening the dollar.

So, an adjustment is underway because of the shift in pressures. The question is, where is the REER heading in the future? dkotok.substack.com/p/markets-di...
(3/3)

Markets Discussion Series Part 6: Where Is the Dollar Going and Why? The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) is beginning to reflect US policy now aimed at weakening the dollar.

...and anything else in America. They can buy weapons, and they are doing so in a big way. They can take vacations to America, but many are electing not to come here because of the fear induced by the ICE stories. They can send their kids to US schools; but that option, too, is under attack.

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Markets Discussion Series Part 6: Where Is the Dollar Going and Why? The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) is beginning to reflect US policy now aimed at weakening the dollar.

Americans get their dollars internally. Foreigners get their dollars from the US trade deficit, which is now the target of Trump’s tariff policy. The flip side of the trade deficit is the capital account surplus. That is how foreigners use the dollars they accumulate to purchase US debt...
(1/3)

Markets Discussion Series Part 6: Where Is the Dollar Going and Why? The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) is beginning to reflect US policy now aimed at weakening the dollar.

That doesn’t mean they will ultimately converge; it means the directional pressure is on them to converge. The interference of governments and the frictions of financial markets are the obstacles to a single-price rule. dkotok.substack.com/p/markets-di...
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Markets Discussion Series Part 6: Where Is the Dollar Going and Why? The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) is beginning to reflect US policy now aimed at weakening the dollar.

...a single global price for a service or good that is identical in each location or jurisdiction — if markets could clear to that price without interferences or obstacles. So, if the price is not presently reflecting that concept, then economic forces will pressure prices to converge.
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Markets Discussion Series Part 6: Where Is the Dollar Going and Why? The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) is beginning to reflect US policy now aimed at weakening the dollar.

The REER is a concept that depicts the dollar (or other currencies) in a form where the price of a good or service is adjusted for differences in inflation and other factors that are at work in one national economy versus another national economy. The concept is that there is...
(2/4)

Trump won't stop until he achieves this. | Alfonso Peccatiello Trump won't stop until he achieves this. The US Dollar just had its worst start of the year in many decades. And it could get worse going forward. In the first 6 months of the year, the Trump admi...

Alfonso Peccatiello, the Netherlands-based CIO of Palinuro Capital (a macro hedge fund), posted this Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) chart and accompanying analysis on LinkedIn (www.linkedin.com/posts/alfons...). It is worthy of note.

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Will He or Won’t He Try to Fire Chairman Powell? Fed analyst Bob Eisenbeis weighs the Trump administration’s attacks against an independent Fed and the chances that Trump will try to oust Powell.

My longtime friend and Cumberland Advisors Board colleague, Bob Eisenbeis , wrote this commentary about the president’s actions and words regarding Fed Chair Powell. dkotok.substack.com/p/will-he-or...

Opening remarks by Chair Powell at the Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference Good morning, and welcome to the Federal Reserve Board. I am pleased, though not surprised, to see such great interest in the topic of today's conference—

Opening remarks by Chair Powell. www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

"Today we will hear the perspectives of industry veterans, academics, and current and former policymakers who are all well-versed in the operations of large banks and the main pillars of the capital framework."

Wars vs Pandemics: Economics, Finance, Investment Today we compare the pandemic finance paradigm to the war finance paradigm and consider how we are moving from one to another.

The United States is now the leading force in utilization of the war-finance paradigm. War finance means big deficits and large defense expenditures. dkotok.substack.com/p/wars-vs-pa... (2/2)