Joël Reland

And why does he think the opposite happened? More red tape is the logical consequence of de-integrating from your largest trading market. More complicated to import and export. Only the biggest firms can afford to bear those costs.

Lower migration is bad news for the UK economy - UK in a changing Europe Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out, and that the recent collapse in immigration will harm the UK's economic p...

I have a new blog post out with The UK In A Changing Europe on how lower migration will be bad for the UK economy: ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...

The political logic is clear: Farage is saying that the problem is not Brexit, but the politicians who have failed to properly implement it. If only the UK had pushed harder to rip up EU red tape, we would not be in the mess we’re in. But his economic and regulatory logic is fundamentally flawed. A close study of recent Brexit history (we happen to have produced one) shows that Conservative governments did, in fact, aspire to deregulate the UK economy. That they failed was due not to a lack of political will, but to reality – and the dawning realisation of the economic damage it would do. It is the very “business people” Farage claims to speak for who pushed hardest against the “Brexit opportunities” agenda.

Farage promises to “reduce the size of the bloated state”, but the task of identifying legislation to reform, and then designing and implementing the new rules, would be a major administrative undertaking for Whitehall. The UK civil service has doubled in size since Brexit, and a key reason for this is that Whitehall has had to take on jobs that were previously left to EU regulators. The more the UK seeks to do things differently to the EU, the more British bureaucrats we will need to do the heavy lifting. If Mr Farage’s real priority is to cut the state to save cash, there is one obvious thing to do – join the EU single market.

Yesterday Nigel Farage argued that the UK has failed to grasp Brexit opportunities to deregulate, which his 'pro-business' government would deliver.

I've got a piece in the Independent arguing why that is a misreading both of Brexit history and economics.

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexi...

Most British young men reject the far right - UK in a changing Europe Emilia Belknap and Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte explain their analysis on the demographics of Reform UK voters in the UK. They argue that while the dominant narrative is that young men are the most likely ...

Happy, alongside @emiliabelknap.bsky.social, to make my debut contribution with the fantastic folks at @ukandeu.bsky.social

Emilia & I use data from @britishelectionstudy.com to correct the atomistic fallacy in people's understanding the Reform UK gender gap

ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british...

Net migration to the UK is falling rapidly. But how far will it fall? A new, detailed estimate by @jamesbowes01.bsky.social projects net migration in 2026 will be 70K to 170K.

This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.

ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...

Don't disagree that an SPS (and ETS) deal would help but by the govt's own analysis it only scratches at the surface of the economic costs

Labour’s Brexit trap - UK in a changing Europe Joël Reland argues that the Labour government's strategy to voluntarily align more closely with EU rules will not result in economic growth in the UK.

My take on the latest strange iteration in UK Brexit policy. We now have a government which openly laments the economic costs of Brexit, but rules out most of the options for dealing with it

ukandeu.ac.uk/labours-brex...

Labour’s Brexit trap - UK in a changing Europe Joël Reland argues that the Labour government's strategy to voluntarily align more closely with EU rules will not result in economic growth in the UK.

"What voluntary alignment does mean is a clunky process of copying and pasting new EU regulations onto the UK statute book for limited economic gain. It is a high-effort, low-reward strategy."

✍️ @jreland.bsky.social reflects on Labour's Brexit trap

ukandeu.ac.uk/labours-brex...

This trends suggest that, unless the government can soon demonstrate the benefits of the regulatory independence from the EU, it will increasingly struggle to justify its Brexit position, which significantly dampens trade with the UK’s closest partner while delivering few other benefits.

And on financial services, a number of consultations are promised on tweaking the existing rulebook – but in truth these are unlikely to have much, if any, impact on growth – and certainly do not offset the loss of access to the EU financial services market.

The UK, while broadly following the EU’s approach of trying to impose controls on big tech’s dominance of digital markets, has been somewhat less interventionist – reflecting the desire to secure a digital trade deal with the US.

Under this model of voluntary alignment, the UK will continue to drift from the EU despite not wanting to. Which raises the question of whether there are any benefits from the UK's regulatory freedom, which offset those costs. The two areas govt has zeroed in on are financial services and tech/AI.

But the key issue is capacity. The govt has announced plans to replicate new EU rules on vehicle safety and emissions testing. But there is yet to be a consultation – let alone legislation. Whitehall cannot move as fast as the Brussels machine - and so more and more gaps open by default over time.

Why? In some cases there's nothing the UK can do to avoid it. The UK cannot legislate to exempt itself from new EU trade defence measures on steel, for example. And in some cases (e.g. AI regs) it might not want to align.

In many goods areas (e.g. vehicles, product safety) the government is taking a (sometimes explicit) presumption in favour of voluntarily aligning with EU law as it changes – to avoid new complexity for UK-EU and GB-NI trade. But despite this there is still plenty of EU-led divergence occurring.

This chart sums up the challenge. There are lots of cases of the UK taking active steps to align with EU regulations – but there are even more cases where the EU has diverged and the UK has not followed suit

Our new divergence is tracker out: auditing the extent to which UK/EU rules and regs have aligned/diverged since June.

It highlights the increasingly awkward position which the UK occupies: of wanting to act like the EU on most regulatory issues, but without being part of the club.

After years of making the running on immigration, Farage may this week have handed the initiative back to his opponents'. @robfordmancs.bsky.social for @ukandeu.bsky.social on the unpopularity of Reform's proposals on ILR ukandeu.ac.uk/reforms-radi...

Interesting piece on the success of the Social Democratic government in Spain and the lessons for Labour. The penultimate paragraph was particularly striking renewal.org.uk/articles/dar...

One for the nerds here... New briefing on the key issues to resolve in the UK-EU ETS negotiations.

And for the slightly less nerdy, here's a blog on why the broader set of negotiations could prove tricky ukandeu.ac.uk/uk-eu-negoti...

Strong stuff - lays out the political and historical reasons why the ECHR is so integral to the peace settlement in Northern Ireland, and why a 'British Bill of Rights' could never occupy the same role

The European Convention on Human Rights and the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement - UK in a changing Europe This explainer examines the relationship between the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement and the European Convention on Human Rights. It explores the role that...

This explainer by @joellegrogan.bsky.social and @alicedonald.bsky.social looks at the relationship between the Belfast/ Good Friday Agreement and the ECHR

To understand what role the ECHR plays and what UK withdrawal would mean for Northern Ireland, read this 👇

ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/t...

Parliamentlive.tv Foreign Affairs Committee

Very underwhelming FAC session on the UK-EU reset - which felt like it was stuck in 2024 with same old stuff about fish, touring artists and sovereignty but almost no detailed interrogation of ETS/SPS/energy talks or wider global challenges.
parliamentlive.tv/event/index/...

IT'S OUT! @ukandeu.bsky.social brand new survey of the policy challenges confronting the UK, done in partnership with the wonderful @resfoundation.bsky.social ukandeu.ac.uk/reports/poli... 1/???

"One of his revealed flaws in his personnel appointments is that he seems to prefer appointing people whose attitude or background he likes, rather than look at whether they are equipped to do the job."

@jillongovt.bsky.social reflects on why Starmer struggles to get the machinery of govt. going

Timely analysis from UKICE (@cbarnard.bsky.social) as per

UKICE Lunch Hour: UK-EU relations during negotiations - UK in a changing Europe Ahead of this autumn's negotiations, join our expert panel as they discuss the what they will mean for the UK's relationship with the EU.

‼️ Don't miss our panel on the negotiations to come between the UK and EU on the policy areas outlined at the summit

W/ @anandmenon.bsky.social, @cbarnard.bsky.social, @jillongovt.bsky.social, @jannikewachowiak.bsky.social & @jreland.bsky.social

💻 Online, Weds 10 Sept

ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...

Hot topics, hard choices • Resolution Foundation After a not-so-quiet summer, MPs are returning from recess to a torrent of public policy challenges. Immigration remains the public’s top concern, with the economy and the NHS not far behind. Defence ...

📣 NEW EVENT 📣

Join us and @resfoundation.bsky.social as we launch the latest edition of our Policy Landscape report with expert analysis of the biggest public policy challenges facing the UK

📅 Tues 2 Sept, 9:30am
📍In-person (London) & online

Sign up 👇

www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/hot-t...

The future of UK-EU relations - UK in a changing Europe Join UK in a Changing Europe and The Open University in Brussels as they bring together leading academics, think tankers, officials and journalists in Brussels to discuss UK-EU relations.

In Brussels in September? Come along! ukandeu.ac.uk/events/the-f...

“Man-made famine is not something that I’ve seen in my lifetime." - Martin Griffiths, UN’s former humanitarian chief.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...