James Bowes

Probably A1 for the spouse and the sponsor needing to earn £29,000 a year or more. Though I think the delay in announcing the policy is trying to decide the exact salary threshold they want.

And one large route that seems to have been almost entirely forgotten: the Family Life Route 10-year pathway (plus the related Private Life Route). But yes also smaller routes like the UK Ancestry visa.

Yes that's a very good point. How would you even qualify after 20 years without working? Unless it's a case of work and earn over a certain amount to get a shorter pathway?

I guess the thing that needs clarifying is whether the 'at an appropriate level' applies only to the study or also to the employment.

It seems to suggest that the only way to get out of the 20 year path to settlement is to switch to a visa, eg a student, family or work visa. Not sure how that would even work with a student visa as it's not on a settlement pathway.

It sounds like they'll formalise making the family of asylum seekers apply for a family visa with the full eligibility requirements, which is currently the interim solution.

I believe the new rules will also apply to dependants joining people on a work visa.

41% according to the census, but it'll be lower now because of the amount of immigration since then.

Yes, this is true for Iranians in particular. It used to be Serbia they flew into, but not sure where now. Afghans tend to cross via Turkey and Greece (as did Syrians). Eritreans, Sudanese and Somalis often cross from Libya to Italy (but numbers are falling fast and many Sudanese go to Greece).

Even if they get into Europe, people aren't able to go past Greece since the Western Balkans route was closed. In the past most refugees who landed in Greece moved onto Germany but now almost all claiming asylum in Greece. Greece now has a lot more asylum claims per capita than other EU countries.

The Earned Settlement policy and the EU's new tighter asylum rules could delay that fall in asylum claims, when people apply for asylum here out of desperation, but can't prevent it falling forever.

It's inevitable that asylum seeker numbers will have collapsed by the next election. Not because of anything the government do, but because there just aren't many people crossing into Europe anymore and there aren't many people being granted visas who can apply in country.

It sort of is I believe. So the 5 years people have already been granted holds, but then after that renewals would be for 2.5 years each to take people up to 20 years.

Monthly entry clearance visa applications, January 2026

Work and student visa application numbers are collapsing. www.gov.uk/government/s...

This actually can't happen with the number of work and family visas being granted now. Unless there is a big surge in demand. My understanding is the projection is from 2022 and involved net migration falling to 340k as a long-term figure based on the more liberal system in place at the time.

Yes, it will increase long-term. Very roughly 100,000 by 2030 and 150,000 by 2035 I think as EU national emigration falls and fewer graduate visas expire. Higher if asylum seeker numbers remain at current highs (I expect them to fall sharply, they usually follow EU trends but a few years later).

I expected them to raise the salary threshold for a work visa (to the median full-time salary for a graduate level job: currently £52,500) now work visas are mainly for jobs at that skill level, and then make temporary shortage list jobs non-renewable ones for eg 3 years.

Yes she genuinely believes this. Impossible to tell what, if anything, Keir believes.

Yes. The number of people coming to take up jobs on the temporary shortage list has fallen a lot, because people don't want a visa with no family reunification rights and a 15-year path to settlement. Plus universities have stopped recruitment in Pakistan and Bangladesh due to the compliance rules.

Bringing it in for new people would be largely pointless, because the salary threshold will probably be over £50,270 in 5 years' time anyway. But it may turn out to be a convenient fiction to save face.

10 years would be mainly people doing high-skilled jobs and earning under £50,270 (and not in a public sector payscale job in healthcare or education). Mainly scientists and engineers, some accountants, vets, graphics designers.

It's 15 years for most medium-skilled workers. Only those who earn over £50,270 would qualify in 10 years I believe. Which isn't very many. Just really ship and hovercraft officers, and I guess sportspeople. Sales accounts and business development managers if that occupation gets downgraded.

96% of visas were sponsored by an employer whose sponsor license was revoked. This only includes employers who sponsored 6 or more workers, but even so.

Yes. Fraud and abuse of the system got very common. James Cleverly clamped down on it in social care and then Labour clamped down on it elsewhere. About 1/4 of skilled worker visa applications get rejected now. But most for Pakistani and Bangladeshi nationals.

Thank you. I keep an eye on freedom of information requests, as they can give a lot of insights you can't get from the official releases (which already reveal a lot of interesting information, especially the occupation data).

PS these figures are all for 2023. It's lower for people sponsored in 2022 because fraud hadn't become widespread. Likely also lower for 2024 as the Home Office started to clampdown on abuses, but I don't have figures after 2023.

96% revocation rate for childminders by the way.

Yes. It's 43% revocation rate for care workers and senior care workers. 22% for medium skilled jobs outside of social care. Only 2% for high skilled jobs. Graphic designers (64%) and web designers (65%) are the outliers in being high skilled jobs with a very high revocation rate.

Abuse has happened. But the government should stick to tackling that, rather than also forcing large numbers of people who have followed all the rules to leave the country.

She really has though. Suella Braverman was all talk, but Shabana Mahmood is actually doing things to ruin immigrants' lives. Out of sheer spite as well, not even for selfish political gain.

64% of graphic designers granted visas in 2023 were sponsored by a company that has had its license revoked. The data only includes companies that sponsored 6 or more visas though.