Armida van Rij

Good luck Gesine!

Taking the Pulse: Does France's Political Crisis Weaken Europe's Geopolitical Hand? While the EU tries to navigate a myriad international challenges, France is experiencing historic political disarray. What impact will instability in Paris have on Europe's geostrategic capacity?

France's political permacrisis is bad news for European rearmament efforts.

As long as there is political instability, discussions on the country's budget, including defense allocations, will continue to be held hostage wrote @armida.bsky.social for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social

The climate action piece is really difficult because it is seen through an 'either or lens', when in reality it's not a zero-sum game esp in security. I highlighted climate change as a top 3 security risk to Europe in oral evidence to the defence select ctt, let's see what the enquiry report says...

The climate action piece is really difficult because it is seen through an 'either or lens', when in reality it's not a zero-sum game esp in security. I highlighted climate change as a top 3 security risk to Europe in oral evidence to the defence select ctt, let's see what the inquiry report says...

Maar ook, wàt is Lamyae een goede interviewer. Chapeau.

Great to contribute to this weeks TTP. I make the point France's political permacrisis is bad news for European rearmament efforts.

I'm in excellent company too @georginaewright.bsky.social @dschwarzer.bsky.social.

Welcome Charles Grant @cergrant.bsky.social to Bsky! This means the whole @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social research team is here - make sure to follow for their excellent analysis.

@cerianbond.bsky.social
@elisabettaco.bsky.social
@zecsaky.bsky.social
@sandertordoir.bsky.social
@aslak.bsky.social

Good luck Thu, look forward to seeing where you both take the Jacques Delors Centre!

4️⃣ It's not just Hungary (with Slovakia and now potentially Czechia) that is at fault for divisions within the EU. Other member states, sometimes conveniently, can hide behind these vetoes -- something important to keep in mind when looking at the long-term impact

CER quick reaction: The Czech elections Czechia’s elections mark a populist shift, but Babiš faces a hard path to form a government. The further he’s pulled to the right, the greater the risk of EU fragmentation.

#Czechia’s elections mark a populist shift, but Babiš now faces a hard path to form a government. The further he’s pulled to the right, the greater the risk of EU fragmentation.

Quick @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social reaction from @zecsaky.bsky.social

Read here:

We are delighted to welcome @armida.bsky.social to the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, she will be working on European security, defence and foreign policy.

buff.ly/UHZ4AUr

I may not have started yet, but... come join the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social who are looking for a digital/tech/innovation expert. I hear they're a good bunch.

Congratulations @onethuthree.bsky.social!

Many thanks!

Thanks, I'm sure we will.

I'm taking a short break until then, and look forward to this next chapter.

This also means that my time at @chathamhouse.org has come to an end. I've loved taking on the challenge of rebuilding the Europe Programme - I owe much to many of my fantastic colleagues both inside and outside of Chatham House, without whom I couldn't have done this (you know who you are!).

A different rentrée for me this year: I'm thrilled to join the excellent team at the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social from 1 October. I've long considered the CER one of the best think tanks for analysis on Europe & I'm excited to contribute thinking on European security, defence, politics & populism.

Face à Poutine, il faut « retourner le facteur temps à l’avantage de l’Ukraine » TRIBUNE. Les forces de garanties de sécurité que les Européens proposent d’engager sur le front ukrainien doivent être déployées avant et non après un cessez-le-feu pour forcer le Kremlin à signer un ...

📢 Ma tribune dans @lemonde.fr à propos de l'Ukraine et du débat sur les garanties de sécurité: j’y défends une idée simple mais exigeante : ne pas attendre le cessez-le-feu pour agir 👉 : www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl... Petit 🧵à dérouler ⤵️

Trump, Silicon Valley, and Europe’s Far-right - ICDS A new transatlantic alliance is forming. The old partnership was based on advancing liberal democracy, upholding the rules-based international order, and a security contract between the US and Europe....

There is so much more to unpack on this, but I made a start here. Including on how European liberal democracies should ward off the threat from MAGA-like ideology. icds.ee/en/trump_sil...

The Vance guard: the new right being cooked up in the Cot... The vice-president shared BBQ and beers with allies whose thinktank has come to the attention of the Electoral Commission

Latest developments within the transatlantic illiberal ideological movement:
observer.co.uk/news/politic...

🇸🇰⚖️ In the coming two weeks, I will be focusing on Slovakia and the rule of law situation there. But first, some general remarks on where the country is now and where it might be headed. Slovakia’s trajectory offers a worrying lesson for other countries in the region. 1/

Trump, Silicon Valley, and Europe’s Far-right - ICDS A new transatlantic alliance is forming. The old partnership was based on advancing liberal democracy, upholding the rules-based international order, and a security contract between the US and Europe....

There is so much more to unpack on this, but I made a start here. Including on how European liberal democracies should ward off the threat from MAGA-like ideology. icds.ee/en/trump_sil...

The Vance guard: the new right being cooked up in the Cot... The vice-president shared BBQ and beers with allies whose thinktank has come to the attention of the Electoral Commission

Latest developments within the transatlantic illiberal ideological movement:
observer.co.uk/news/politic...

We had a truly fantastic discussion with some of my favourite colleagues from the European security/ defence crowd in July in London. Recording is now online!

YouTube video by RUSI Maintaining European Unity | The Future of the Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture

Event recording from @edrusi.bsky.social's European security conference at @rusi.bsky.social a few weeks ago, with @lscazzieri.bsky.social @gesineweber.bsky.social @rgwhitman.bsky.social Roderich Kiesewetter & me discussing European unity and security cooperation.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMVP...

New piece from me @euractiv.com arguing that both in defence and trade, European leaders are willing to let Trump get the win, making Europe's humiliation part of a comms strategy.

But even if the losses are smaller under the surface, the perception of humilation still comes at a great cost:

Understanding Russia’s Black Sea strategy How to strengthen Europe and NATO’s approach to the region

Russia's invasion of Ukraine marks a significant escalation but not a shift in Moscow’s strategic outlook – one rooted in resisting EU and NATO influence in the Black Sea.

Read @galipdalay.bsky.social and Natalie Sabanadze's latest for @chathamhouse.org.

Glad to see this gain traction among public broadcasters - especially with Dutch elections in a few months. Well done @saskiadekkers.bsky.social

How the Far-Right is rewriting Germany’s 2015 “Refugee Summer” Ten years after Germany accepted nearly 900,000 refugees, politicians have rewritten the story of the 2015 “refugee summer” as a crisis...

The far-right doesn't need to govern to win – just to control the story.
My new piece for @myfairobserver.bsky.social shows how the #AfD reframed 2015 as a national trauma –
and how that narrative now shapes policy across party lines.
📰 tinyurl.com/vxrydm56
#Migration #Germany #farright