Armida van Rij

We had a truly fantastic discussion with some of my favourite colleagues from the European security/ defence crowd in July in London. Recording is now online!

YouTube video by RUSI Maintaining European Unity | The Future of the Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture

Event recording from @edrusi.bsky.social's European security conference at @rusi.bsky.social a few weeks ago, with @lscazzieri.bsky.social @gesineweber.bsky.social @rgwhitman.bsky.social Roderich Kiesewetter & me discussing European unity and security cooperation.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMVP...

New piece from me @euractiv.com arguing that both in defence and trade, European leaders are willing to let Trump get the win, making Europe's humiliation part of a comms strategy.

But even if the losses are smaller under the surface, the perception of humilation still comes at a great cost:

Understanding Russia’s Black Sea strategy How to strengthen Europe and NATO’s approach to the region

Russia's invasion of Ukraine marks a significant escalation but not a shift in Moscow’s strategic outlook – one rooted in resisting EU and NATO influence in the Black Sea.

Read @galipdalay.bsky.social and Natalie Sabanadze's latest for @chathamhouse.org.

Glad to see this gain traction among public broadcasters - especially with Dutch elections in a few months. Well done @saskiadekkers.bsky.social

How the Far-Right is rewriting Germany’s 2015 “Refugee Summer” Ten years after Germany accepted nearly 900,000 refugees, politicians have rewritten the story of the 2015 “refugee summer” as a crisis...

The far-right doesn't need to govern to win – just to control the story.
My new piece for @myfairobserver.bsky.social shows how the #AfD reframed 2015 as a national trauma –
and how that narrative now shapes policy across party lines.
📰 tinyurl.com/vxrydm56
#Migration #Germany #farright

Look forward to speaking at this @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social event tomorrow to launch @cerianbond.bsky.social's book. Expect lots of discussion about the EU's direction of travel and future of the institutions.

Scrap the asylum system—and build something better Rich countries need to separate asylum from labour migration

Late to this but @economist.com published an editorial that is factually wrong, misleading (not to say manipulative) and presents a convoluted argument about how to build a better international protection system – essentially by scrapping international protection.

First, a couple of facts.

Ukraine’s recovery cannot wait until Russia’s invasion is over The recent Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome brought together thousands of participants and established new connections that could bolster Kyiv's wartime resilience while also setting the stage for ...

The rhetoric is shifting away from humanitarian support for Ukraine as a country under attack, toward recognition of the need to invest in Ukraine as a country that will play a vital role in the future of European security.

My 1st op-ed for Atlantic Council
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...

Ha! Die zeehond komt heel bekend voor. Ik ga over een week. Veel plezier!

How can NATO benefit from cloud services in defence? What is the best way for Allies to enhance interoperability through the cloud? How are Allies developing "defence clouds"? Daniel Fiott and Antonio Calcara provide some answers.

Read now🔸 csds.vub.be/publication/... #cloud #defence #NATO

Do read @nvondarza.bsky.social's excellent latest contribution for @cheurope.bsky.social on how the new UK-Germany treaty marks a revival of the E3 format, a key pillar for European security.

www.chathamhouse.org/2025/07/afte...

So important to understand this as centre politicians (wrongly) keep attempting to outflank the far right on immigration. This strategy backfires.

Europe, United States, West, Democracy, Authoritarianism - ICDS A new transatlantic alliance is forming. The old partnership was based on advancing liberal democracy, upholding the rules-based international order, and a security contract between the US and Europe....

As the EU tries to double down on protecting liberal democracy, it is coming under direct fire from a group of radical libertarian tech billionaires and venture capitalists, writes Armida van Rij. @armida.bsky.social @chathamhouse.org

#LennartMeriConference

Completely agree - this was exactly my point when addressing the conference 🙃

You're right. Shameful is a better word.

Find it shocking that the story about the Afghan files is being turned into a story about immigration on R4 by Rajan and Healy. This is about public scrutiny, government decision-making, doing right by those who've supported the British armed forces and British operations overseas. Not immigration.

Trump's Russia announcement is being portrayed as toughening his stance, but in fact what he did was give Putin a 50-day free pass to do anything he likes in Ukraine without further US punishment as the Senate sanctions bill is now put on hold.

The Enshittification of American Power First Google and Facebook, then the world. Under Trump 2.0, US statecraft is starting to mimic the worst tendencies of Big Tech.

1/Like Big Tech, US built platform infrastructures for the world. Now, it is squeezing those platforms for power. In short term, dependence is hard to break. In long term, US risks it all. New w/@himself.bsky.social in @wired.com on the enshittification of US power. www.wired.com/story/enshit...

Trump is changing his words about Putin, who only cares about actions Optimism over Trump’s talk of Patriots for Ukraine and punishment for Moscow may be premature. A generous deadline for Putin, and lack of detail, leave many questions unanswered.

Optimism over Donald Trump’s talk of Patriot missiles for Ukraine and punishment for Moscow may be premature. A generous deadline for Russia, and a lack of detail, leave many questions unanswered.

Read @keirgiles.bsky.social's latest for @chathamhouse.org ⤵️

Suspending the right to asylum and cutting food rations is not "getting tough" but a blatant breach of EU law. The @ec.europa.eu should of course intervene, but @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu will not bother an ally with infringement proceedings. www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2025/07/10/g...

Contours of European Strategic Autonomy Europe is moving on without the US, and the US does not seem to like it after all.

Today was the day when Europe announced that it is moving on:

The Franco-British agreement to establish a nuclear supervision group, and a permanent headquarters for the Ukraine coalition of the willing can become contours of a new European security architecture - this time without the US.

Here comes the future: European security increasingly forged by multiple coalitions. Not so much NATO or EU; the real action is elsewhere.

With and for Ukraine.

Good reporting as usual by @alexowski.bsky.social

Very pleased to share my latest analysis, co-authored with my good colleague Antonio Calcara, on NATO’s efforts to adopt cloud computing. We consider the Alliance’s efforts so far, look at each national approach and provide recommendations. Hope you find it useful!

Trump is working on regime change in Europe — fact, not conspiracy theory On 27 May, an official document, The Need for Civilizational Allies in Europe, calling for regime change in European countries was published, written by a senior adviser for the Bureau for Democracy, ...

Trump is working on regime change in Europe
My latest for @euobserver.com

euobserver.com/eu-and-the-w...

I’m glad that this story made it into France24 but it’s kinda old news and they should actually rather look into the Russian Orthodox Church in central Paris, close to the ministry of foreign affairs and Elysee, which Sarkozy made sure got permit to be built.

📅 JOIN US - 22 July - Zoom/London: Hybrid launch of 'The Routledge Guide to the European Union (2nd ed)' with @cerianbond.bsky.social‬, Mark Leonard ‪@ecfr.eu‬ & @armida.bsky.social‬

Email reception@cer.eu for further info & registration

One of the many (non-military) ways in which the EU can support Ukraine

Unusually for Costa, this strikes me as rather unwise from Costa.

Linking the trade and security negotiations should not be in the EU's interests. And, with the aim to strengthen a European defence industry, the EU will likely push into the opposite direction with a preference for EU-made kit.

🇵🇱🗳️⚖️ Last week has been a rollercoaster in Poland over the irregularities in vote count for the recent 2nd round of the presidential election. TL;DR my take: yes, there were irregularities, but the result of the election doesn't appear to be in doubt. 1/