Armida van Rij's Avatar

Armida van Rij

@armida.bsky.social

Senior Research Fellow @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social. Ex-Chatham House & King's College London. European security, defence & politics. ๐Ÿ”— https://www.cer.eu/personnel/armida-van-rij

3,310 Followers  |  271 Following  |  393 Posts  |  Joined: 25.08.2024  |  1.8916

Latest posts by armida.bsky.social on Bluesky

It's also not new - the US has been exporting ideologies since the end of WW2. Europe is just it's latest target, and nativism the new ideology to export and propagate
globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

06.02.2026 10:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 35    ๐Ÿ” 16    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

I said this would happen - to anyone's who's been following this White House's ideological turn it was obvious this would eventually happen.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

06.02.2026 10:33 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8    ๐Ÿ” 4    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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For the FES, I wrote a short brief about how mainstream party strategies have fueled far-right success. They move toward more anti-immigration positions to win voters back. This does not work, but shifts public opinion to the right. Parties then react to shifts in public opinion. A vicious cycle.

06.02.2026 08:04 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 315    ๐Ÿ” 135    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3    ๐Ÿ“Œ 11
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Opinie | โ€˜We moeten onze defensie-industrie opschalen, dat kan niet door Amerikaanse wapens te blijven kopenโ€™ Opinie-interview: Europa kende crisis na crisis -financiรซle crisis, corona, invasie van Rusland. Dus er is niet veel capaciteit om vooruit te denken, ziet Armida van Rij. Toch is dat noodzakelijk, om ...

Ondanks het onderwerp, toch bijzonder om dit interview aan @nrc.nl te mogen geven. We hebben het over de toekomst van de NAVO, de rol van Europa op het wereldtoneel, en waarom meegaan met de gedachtegang van Trump Europa verder ondermijnt.

Dank @arnolddegroot.bsky.social.
www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/...

21.01.2026 15:14 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Great to be back on BBC New The Context last night, to unpack the informal EU Council and Greenland.

23.01.2026 11:34 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Welcome @james-r-green.bsky.social! Do follow my new CER colleague for all things tech policy.

23.01.2026 11:16 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Verification, Deliberation, Accountability: A new framework for tackling epistemic collapse and renewing democracy Demos is Britainโ€™s leading cross-party think-tank. We produce original research, publish innovative thinkers and host thought-provoking events.

As I've written before, people donโ€™t trust institutions because institutions aren't doing the job. Democracy rests on three pillars: Verification, Deliberation, Accountability, which can be understood as being substantial, performative, and simulated.

demos.co.uk/research/ver...

23.01.2026 09:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 657    ๐Ÿ” 150    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 8    ๐Ÿ“Œ 11

Weโ€™ve spent years trying to fact-check our way out of this, and it failed. Democratic decay isnโ€™t about bad information versus good information, itโ€™s about the collapse of the systems that turn information into reality. If every bot and Russian troll vanished tomorrow, the rot would still be there.

23.01.2026 09:12 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 966    ๐Ÿ” 179    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 12    ๐Ÿ“Œ 7

๐Ÿงต @jburnmurdoch.ft.com is spot on about the conditions in his FT piece. Liberal democracy held it together thanks to growth, good demographics, and the promise of a better future. Those days are gone, and thatโ€™s the "why" behind the erosion. However...

23.01.2026 09:07 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1613    ๐Ÿ” 582    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 41    ๐Ÿ“Œ 126
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Opinie | โ€˜We moeten onze defensie-industrie opschalen, dat kan niet door Amerikaanse wapens te blijven kopenโ€™ Opinie-interview: Europa kende crisis na crisis -financiรซle crisis, corona, invasie van Rusland. Dus er is niet veel capaciteit om vooruit te denken, ziet Armida van Rij. Toch is dat noodzakelijk, omโ€ฆ

Europa kende crisis na crisis -financiรซle crisis, corona, invasie van Rusland. Dus er is niet veel capaciteit om vooruit te denken, ziet @armida.bsky.social. Toch is dat noodzakelijk, om afbrokkeling van de EU en NAVO te voorkomen.

21.01.2026 14:00 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Opinie | โ€˜We moeten onze defensie-industrie opschalen, dat kan niet door Amerikaanse wapens te blijven kopenโ€™ Opinie-interview: Europa kende crisis na crisis -financiรซle crisis, corona, invasie van Rusland. Dus er is niet veel capaciteit om vooruit te denken, ziet Armida van Rij. Toch is dat noodzakelijk, om ...

Ondanks het onderwerp, toch bijzonder om dit interview aan @nrc.nl te mogen geven. We hebben het over de toekomst van de NAVO, de rol van Europa op het wereldtoneel, en waarom meegaan met de gedachtegang van Trump Europa verder ondermijnt.

Dank @arnolddegroot.bsky.social.
www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/...

21.01.2026 15:14 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Attn news commentators: Trump saying he could use force to obtain Greenland but wonโ€™t is not Trump saying he wonโ€™t use force to obtain Greenland. It is Trump using force as a threat to obtain Greenland. That is why he mentions it.

21.01.2026 14:16 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6936    ๐Ÿ” 1861    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 154    ๐Ÿ“Œ 185

True... But think you're right. He referenced the daddy thing as some weird power play though so that's backfired

21.01.2026 14:28 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

That makes much more sense. But the first time was Rutte no? And ref to 'daddy'

21.01.2026 14:21 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Opinie | โ€˜We moeten onze defensie-industrie opschalen, dat kan niet door Amerikaanse wapens te blijven kopenโ€™ Opinie-interview: Europa kende crisis na crisis -financiรซle crisis, corona, invasie van Rusland. Dus er is niet veel capaciteit om vooruit te denken, ziet Armida van Rij. Toch is dat noodzakelijk, om ...

"We gaan nu mee in de retoriek van Trump, met zijn analyse van de veiligheidssituatie rond Groenland. Trump heeft het steeds over Russische en Chinese boten die rond de kust van Groenland zijn โ€“ die zijn er niet." Ik interviewde @armida.bsky.social voor @nrc.nl Opinie: www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/...

21.01.2026 10:46 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 14    ๐Ÿ” 4    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Trump coming for the North Sea next: "The UK sits on the North Sea, sits on all that oil, and they don't do anything with it. They don't allow the oil companies to drill."

21.01.2026 14:03 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 18    ๐Ÿ” 12    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Europe faces a pincer attack from White House ideologues backed by Silicon Valley and its far-right proxies | Armida va Rij US tech bosses are exerting leverage on EU regulators via Trump and Vance. But Europe isnโ€™t powerless, and it isnโ€™t alone, says the Centre for European Reformโ€™s Armida van Rij

Europe faces a pincer attack from White House ideologues backed by Silicon Valley and its far-right proxies. My op-ed for @theguardian.com

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

08.01.2026 10:13 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 25    ๐Ÿ” 13    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

A strong episode overall thanks to @rynning.bsky.social's analysis, but this final part on minilateralism is especially important.

The new energy put towards these formats show something is broken within NATO. They are not used to reinforce the alliance, but to push pol agendas through other means.

19.01.2026 16:02 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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The past few days have underlined why it's problematic to go along with Trump's rationale - it assumes a basis of reason which is not there. My comments to the Washington Post www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

18.01.2026 15:26 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 19    ๐Ÿ” 5    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Brussels holdโ€™em: European cards against Trumpian coercion โ€“ European Council on Foreign Relations Faced with an aggressive United States, Europe has more leverage than it realises. Across trade, technology, infrastructure, finance and people-to-people relati

Good moment to repost my paper from last year, mapping the cards Europe could play in response to US coercion.

Most of them could be played via the anti-coercion instrument. Digital services charges and (de facto) export controls are the keys.

ecfr.eu/publication/...

18.01.2026 14:44 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 17    ๐Ÿ” 11    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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Trumps krav pรฅ Grรถnland hotar Nato i grunden, sรคger expert infรถr avgรถrande mรถte Natos trovรคrdighet sรคtts pรฅ spel nรคr USA ifrรฅgasรคtter en allierads suverรคnitet, varnar forskaren Armida van Rij.

Natos trovรคrdighet sรคtts pรฅ spel nรคr USA ifrรฅgasรคtter en allierads suverรคnitet, varnar forskaren @armida.bsky.social.

buff.ly/nWO76SX

14.01.2026 11:00 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/

18.01.2026 03:04 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1996    ๐Ÿ” 621    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 37    ๐Ÿ“Œ 93
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"What possible scenarios can you see for a US takeover of #Greenland, whether that is political, economic or through military coercion?โ€ @armida.bsky.social asked @rynning.bsky.social in the latest #CERpodcast 'Unpacking Europe' episode.

Full episode here: buff.ly/jLyY2SW

16.01.2026 13:01 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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๐ŸŽ™๏ธ Listen to our new #CERpodcast โ€˜Unpacking Europeโ€™ on the implications of the latest #Greenland crisis for the future direction of the #NATO alliance with @armida.bsky.social & @rynning.bsky.social. ๐ŸŽ™๏ธ

Listen here: buff.ly/3nsjpU4

15.01.2026 10:01 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

For as long as Europe is limited by the military capabilities it can deploy independently of the US, security dependence will cloud any course of action or response to US policy that European leaders can consider wrote @armida.bsky.social in @theguardian.com.

15.01.2026 12:01 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 7    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Europe faces a pincer attack from White House ideologues backed by Silicon Valley and its far-right proxies | Armida van Rij US tech bosses are exerting leverage on EU regulators via Trump and Vance. But Europe isnโ€™t powerless, and it isnโ€™t alone, says the Centre for European Reformโ€™s Armida van Rij

The operation in Venezuela escalates the seriousness of the Trump administrationโ€™s threats to annex #Greenland, demonstrating the very real risks to sovereignty and security beyond ideology.

buff.ly/6GmnosL

15.01.2026 12:01 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

This is something I have been wondering about as well - not only putting NATO to the edge, but also the short attention span and threat of military action across the world (Venezuela, Greenland, Cuba, Colombia, Iran...) must overstretch even US military forces.

14.01.2026 20:56 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 93    ๐Ÿ” 25    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

OR... does it in the medium-term just create a divide *within* Europe between those European NATO allies wanting to keep the US on board (the North/East), and those whose electorates see straight through that and are fed up with placating Trump (South)?

14.01.2026 17:49 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

The tripwire force is finally here... But instead of being in Ukraine to deter Russia, it is within NATO territory to deter one NATO ally from violating another NATO ally's sovereignty.

The world turned upside down.

14.01.2026 17:25 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 93    ๐Ÿ” 26    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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๐ŸŽ™๏ธ In our latest Unpacking Europe podcast @armida.bsky.social & @rynning.bsky.social discuss possible scenarios for a US takeover of Greenland and the consequences of this on the #NATO alliance.๐ŸŽ™๏ธ

Listen here: buff.ly/ZiqRiAP

14.01.2026 12:30 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 4    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

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