Eric Maugendre

Mapping the deforestation footprint of nations reveals growing threat to tropical forests Nature Ecology & Evolution - The authors use economic input–output modelling to reveal how consumption patterns contribute to deforestation domestically and internationally across nations.

"While many developed countries, China and India have obtained net forest gains domestically, they have also increased the deforestation embodied in their imports […]. Consumption patterns of G7 countries drive an average loss of 3.9 trees per person per year".

via @esavakkilainen.bsky.social

I should write the argument up properly somewhere, but I think this is fundamentally wrong. A decisive fraction of the capitalist class does oppose addressing the climate crisis, but *not* because it would be bad for profits. If anything, a green New Deal type program would raise aggregate profits.

Filming at an abandoned uranium mine in Arizona. The mining waste is uncontained, open to the winds. Professor Kearfott, University of Michigan, telks me the Geiger counter readings I took here are similar to those remaining around Chernobyl.

vimeo.com/ondemand/thi...

I’m really surprised this isn’t bigger news. Just under 10 million people live in Tehran. Where can they go? Where else in Iran will have enough water? This will undoubtedly strain the country’s and the region’s politics, finances and governance capacity.

"The Hadley cell, also known as the Hadley circulation, is a global-scale tropical atmospheric circulation that features air rising near the equator, flowing poleward near the tropopause at a height of 12–15 km (7.5–9.3 mi) above the Earth's surface, cooling and descending in the subtropics at around 30 degrees latitude, and then returning equatorward near the surface. It is a thermally direct circulation within the troposphere that emerges due to differences in insolation and heating between the tropics and the subtropics. On a yearly average, the circulation is characterized by a circulation cell on each side of the equator. The Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell is slightly stronger on average than its northern counterpart, extending slightly beyond the equator into the Northern Hemisphere. During the summer and winter months, the Hadley circulation is dominated by a single, cross-equatorial cell with air rising in the summer hemisphere and sinking in the winter hemisphere. Analogous circulations may occur in extraterrestrial atmospheres, such as on Venus and Mars. Global climate is greatly influenced by the structure and behavior of the Hadley circulation. […] The sinking branches of the Hadley cells give rise to the oceanic subtropical ridges and suppress rainfall; many of the Earth's deserts and arid regions are located in the subtropics coincident with the position of the sinking branches. The Hadley circulation is also a key mechanism for the meridional transport of heat, angular momentum and moisture, contributing to the subtropical jet stream, the moist tropics and maintaining a global thermal equilibrium." Wikipedia, CCbySA 4.0

"Without #AMOC, the southern hemisphere warms more rapidly as heat is not passing through to the north. This lowers the thermal equator and takes the rain belts with them. Areas used to significant rainfall such as the northern part of the Amazon and southern Asia would see significant less rain."

© ENS Paris-Saclay 2020 ; Fabienne Barataud 2009 et 2015.

[9/10] Fabienne Barataud insiste sur la valeur des expérimentations locales, même limitées. Elles n’inversent pas seules le système global, mais elles nourrissent des imaginaires collectifs indispensables à une transformation écologique. #geography #prospective #food #agriculture

Changing European hydroclimate under a collapsed AMOC in the Community Earth System Model Abstract. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is expected to weaken or even collapse under anthropogenic climate change. Given the importance of the AMOC in the present-day climate,...

📢 New paper on the impacts of AMOC collapse on European hydroclimate. 🌊

We find an AMOC collapse would exacerbate drought conditions across Europe, linked to reduced precipitation. In combination with climate change droughts are expected to become more frequent and severe.

doi.org/10.5194/hess...

"The amount of heat transported to the north Atlantic is huge. […] It’s enough to warm the entire region by 4.5°C on average which means that I’m cutting the grass in November rather than shovelling snow."
drtomharris.substack.com/p/amoc-weake... by @drtomharris.bsky.social

#AMOC #climateChange

Working in research at [large financial institution] I see the same thing. There's no appetite to question the fundamentals because the AI trade has been hugely profitable. So people's jobs seem to have become finding reasons for investors to keep believing. It's a bit disheartening.

The hierarchy is clear: 75–85% of emission reductions through 2050 come from using less fossil fuel.

CCS plays a role, but it is strictly secondary, contributing a median of just 15–25%.

Technological neutrality is a political concept, not a scientific one.

2/3

As I argue in The Language of Climate Politics: we are stuck not because climate politics are polarized, but because they’re UNIFIED (across the right and center-left) on the lie that we can keep using oil and gas but still deal with climate change anyway.

Here’s a good example of that discourse.

Wrote up a piece of the betrayed promises of the green transition and what Britain’s experience can tell us about the USA and the future of climate politics

The Problem With COP30’s Big Rainforest Initiative - Truthdig The latest attempt to curb extraction in the Amazon still ties the “value” of critical ecosystems to financial markets.

The Problem With COP30’s Big Rainforest Initiative.

“The TFFF isn’t a climate proposal, but it’s another false solution to the planetary crises of biodiversity loss, forest loss and climate collapse.”

www.truthdig.com/articles/the...

Had the number of scenarios from different models or studies in the IPCC scenarios database been different, headline IPCC mitigation findings could have been different. Statistical findings are, not surprisingly, impacted by the distribution of models and studies.

(J'avais peut-être quarante ans quand j'ai enfin cherché la différence entre AMOC et Gulf Stream !)

The climate case for planting trees has been overhyped — but it’s not too late to fix it Reforestation can contribute significantly to tackling climate change, but research found its global potential is only a fraction of what’s been claimed.

New assessment on the biophysical potential of forestation to sequester carbon. As expected, we found just a fraction of what other assessments found, because we considered the obvious no-nos, such as risk to biodiversity, excess water use, and regional warming.

theconversation.com/the-climate-...

Search for Eric Maugendre

Thanks to your feedback, i just changed the names to have them all different and try to reflect the goals.
Only one account lives at Bluesky. The other four are older and live at four different Mastodon servers.
What do you think?

We also confirm mechanisms of the Amazon dieback in terms of climate drivers, ecological processes and land-use change effects

Bonjour Annie 🙂
Thank you for pointing out the problem.
Would you be so kind as to tell how feel about it before i reassure you?
Do you fear spam or impersonation? Or is it just confusion?

percent of land with forests replaced by cattle (2001-2015) Brazil and Paraguay show large areas where cattle replaced more than 13% of tree cover Caution note: "By overlaying recent maps of commodity production areas with maps of historical tree cover loss, this indicator shows where previously forested lands have been replaced by agriculture. Critically, this does not necessarily imply that current-day farms or pastures were directly responsible for past deforestation events. Furthermore, this approach does not allow monitoring of the potential indirect effects of these commodities on deforestation—for example, where expansion of a commodity displaces other forms of farming that contribute to deforestation elsewhere." Source: Elizabeth Goldman, Mikaela Weisse for the World Resources Institute, https://gfr.wri.org/forest-extent-indicators/deforestation-agriculture

Cattle accounts for 36 percent of tree cover loss from agriculture

(Please read methodology notes in Alt text.)

#deforestation #landGrab #landUse #landUseChange #CO2 #emissions #carbon #Mercosur #beef #cattle #soy #soybeans #palmOil #rubber

I guess so too.

(I am French and i don't even post in French here.)

The fresh surface of new concrete absorbs CO₂ fairly quickly, but the process slows down as diffusion to deeper layers takes longer. Demolition exposes new surfaces, so leads to a new increase in uptake.

C'est un plaisir à lire. Merci d'avoir fait tout ce travail.

Par contre, je remarque le très faible nombre de reprises ("reposts"), que ce soit en français ou en castillan ("Spanish").
Would some hashtags have helped?
(I am asking to learn since my sojourn at Bluesky started yesterday.)

Tree cover loss in areas of medium to high erosion risk, 2001-2024. Portugal wins on percentage points!

Thank you.
From there i am going to explore:
gfr.wri.org/biodiversity...
gfr.wri.org/forest-exten...
gfr.wri.org/forest-condi...

#forests #forest #CO2 #emissions #carbon #carbonSinks #carbonSink #deforestation #landUse #landUseChange #treeCover #Portugal #trees

@wifejackson.bsky.social

Annual changes in deforestation footprints show that many developed countries, China and India have obtained net forest gains domestically at the expense of foreign forests Excerpt from Nguyen Tien Hoang & Keiichiro Kanemoto (2021): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-021-01417-z.epdf?sharing_token=gW0dAxz1m2PjWUhgENZUotRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MFqPG3Hup0UdoBt27CZ-9Dsh28L5LJnoS7rm_cBtC65hnHQw-G-vOTTxaw2kg3IE8eZXdHj8ATyI4CnLE8PqFzafqCkuaGmY9SCt-ZDdO7c4_bWbPL3pFBjLjFaOaj6KsNBADmCH2lehENx1lWrQEPHQiqCEPUZgrzW2aJjtSdGL2dZspkpk49SxH0sdaByqU%3D&tracking_referrer=www.carbonbrief.org

“This paper shows that as an underlying driver, international trade should not be ignored, and that consumer countries should play a role to – or be held accountable – for part of that deforestation as well."

#CO2 #carbon #deforestation #EUPol #palmOil #emissions #forests #agriculture #beef #meat

Mapping the deforestation footprint of nations reveals growing threat to tropical forests Nature Ecology & Evolution - The authors use economic input–output modelling to reveal how consumption patterns contribute to deforestation domestically and internationally across nations.

"While many developed countries, China and India have obtained net forest gains domestically, they have also increased the deforestation embodied in their imports […]. Consumption patterns of G7 countries drive an average loss of 3.9 trees per person per year".

via @esavakkilainen.bsky.social

I am a little slow a few times a day 😄

In the end, i envisage to deliver an inference model of deforestation vs trade (via livestock). The antepenultimate step would be a dataset of deforestation (or conversely of old ground cover) since 2005 at the latest.

@nonviolence.bsky.social‬

Most of the damage that Europe does is not in Europe. We need to reduce meat & dairy to protect nature.
www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/...

New threats target land and environmental rights defenders Land and environmental defenders face extreme violence, criminalisation and lack of protection around the world, with 146 killed or disappeared in 2024

Indigenous Peoples are the primary experts on lands, waters, and governance in their territories.

Yet 1/3 of defenders killed or disappeared in 2024 were Indigenous or Afro-descendant, with Brazil among the top 5 countries where these attacks occurred.

👀👉 globalwitness.org/en/campaigns...

That's very interesting Thank you.

On top of that, i would ideally like to groom a dataset of worldwide tree cover when i find one... and see how it correlates with emissions or rain 🤓