Adrian Leyser Sturm

Motherfucking wind farms…

Wenn sich die Politik endlich mal geschlossen für ein Verbotsverfahren aussprechen würde und dieses erfolgreich endet, hätte man auch beim ÖRR keine Ausreden mehr 🤷‍♂️. So ist und bleibt es ein Rumgeiere.

Photograph taken from the International Space Station by astronaut Nichole Ayers, capturing a rare gigantic jet — an upward lightning discharge shooting from a thunderstorm about 90-100 km high into the upper atmosphere. The jet appears as a vivid purple and blue column of light that finely branches out toward the top where it turns into a vivid red color. It's rising from a brightly illuminated cloud top, surrounded by diffuse city lights from Northern Mexico and South Texas. Behind it is the curved limb of Earth with a green band from the airglow layer indicating the edge of the atmosphere. A portion of the space station’s robotic arm is visible in the foreground.

On July 3rd, astronaut Nichole Ayers photographed a rare Gigantic jet from the ISS. These upward directed electrical discharges extend 90-100 km high into the atmosphere.

I processed this image from the RAW file, adjusting the white balance, contrast and noise reduction.
Full res: flic.kr/p/2rhxqcK

Forecast of the IFS Shift Of Tales.

The IFS Extreme Forecast Index also classifies the event as extreme in climatological terms. In north-eastern Germany and parts of Denmark in particular, the “Shift Of Tales” (SOT) values are 3-4, which is a rare occurrence.

And here is an exemplary model sounding for eastern Germany. Note the almost completely saturated, warm profile.

ICON-D2-Forecast of Most Unstable CAPE and Sea Level Pressure

Forecasted hodograph with strong low and mid level veering (WAA).

This is caused by a combination of strong synoptic forcing (mainly due to extreme warm air advection, WAA) and extreme humid and unstable air masses. This is a classic warm rain event in which non-ice-phase processes (collision and coalescence) dominate the precipitation formation. 2/2

accumulated precipitation forecast for 22 Jul, 12 Z, by ICON-D2.

Potentially hazardous situation for eastern/northeastern Germany and parts of Denmark. A hybrid extreme precipitation event with prolonged, but also convectively enhanced rainfall is likely to occur today. Locally, over 100 l/m² are possible. 1/2

... wahrscheinlich aber auch bedingt durch Abschattung des Radars Dresden. Mal abwarten, bis die Linie das Radar überquert hat.

Linear MCS with embedded mesocyclone in Saxony, Germany. From a RADAR point of view, very suspicious of a #tornado. But no reports so far.

GFS ensemble forecast of the track of Invest 96W

Forecast of the Madden-Julian-Oscillation

Analysis of the 200 hPa velocity potential (green: anomalous divergence->favorable for precipitation, brown: anomalous convergence)

Following an amplifying #MJO in phase 5/6 and an anomalous divergence, there is the potential for a cyclone formation over the northern West Pacific and the Marine Continent in the coming days. #Invest96W (6Z: 13.7°N 133.6°E) already has the capability to become a stronger #typhoon.

Tomorrow (Wed, 16 Jul), north-central Europe will be under the influence of a cut-off low within an extremely weak flow. Short-lived single cells develop with mod. instability which can produce non-mesocyclonic tornadoes / funnel clouds with the aid of low-level convergences. 3/3

Today (Tue, 15 Jul) we find a quite good overlap of mod. instability and strong deep layer shear. Due to orographic modification and cell interaction, helicity can be generated in the vicinity of mountains, so that a #tornado cannot be ruled out in the course of isol. #supercells and low LCLs. 2/3

enhanced Tornado Risk

There's a slightly enhanced #Tornado risk today in far eastern Germany, northern Czech Republic and southern Poland (mesocyclonic) and tomorrow in the Netherlands, the northern half of Germany and in Poland (non-mesocyclonic). #severeweather 1/3

Messung und Vorhersagen der Mitteltemperatur im Juli in Deutschland. Als Referenz ist das Klimamittel von 1991 bis 2020 dargestellt. Nach der Hitze zu Monatsbeginn schwanken die Temperaturen im weiteren Monatsverlauf etwa um das Klimamittel.

#GoodNews am Morgen: Es sieht bis Ende Juli nach gaaaanz normalem mitteleuropäischem #Sommerwetter aus. Mal sehr warm, mal etwas kühler. Dazu sorgen zeitweilige Niederschläge zumindest dafür, dass die Dürresituation nicht weiter eskaliert. Also weder Ussel- noch Horror-/Hitze-Jahrtausendsommer ...

Sehr erfreulich. Leider gibt es in den Ensembles immer noch einige Member mit Hitzewallungen. Die ein oder andere, wenn auch kurze, knackige Hitzewelle wird es ziemlich sicher noch geben. Aber wenns nur das ist: ertragbar.

Photo of my garden. The meadow is almost completely burnt brown. Shrubs and trees are also beginning to suffer.

#Drought in the Rhine-Main region, #Germany. The garden hasn't looked like this for a long time.

It is caused by stalled circulation. The currently prevailing Eastern European blockade is turning into a high-over-low blockade. The affected region is on the leading edge of a persistent trough, which is cut off due to ridging over northern Europe and nestles in.

Several rounds of heavy rain in Central/Eastern #Europe (Poland, Western Ukraine, Belarus). By the end of the week, 100-200 l/m² will drop in places, followed by major #flooding. #severeweather

Mediterranean daily anomaly SST map (from 1982-2011 period).

The SST anomalies in the Mediterranean are simply overwhelming. Partly well over +5 K! www.ceam.es/ceamet/SST/S...

Temperature anomalies on 1-2 July in Europe an Climate Shift Index (change in likelihood due to climate change). https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-shift-index

#ClimateChange appears to have left a huge footprint on the #heatwave in SW-Europe end of June/beginning of July. According to the “Climate Shift Index” from climatecentral.org, climate change has made the heatwave 5 times more likely. The hot Mediterranean certainly plays a major role in this.

Temperature highs on 2 Jun in Germany.

List of temperature highs above 38.5 °C on 2 Jun in Germany.

The #heatwave reached its peak in Central Europe yesterday. In #Germany, temperatures rose above 39 °C and several decade records were broken. The #heat was exceptional in terms of its intensity and early timing!
Mtwetter.de

Hitze bedeutet nicht zwangsläufig intensivere Gewitter. Dazu benötigt es noch andere Zutaten wie Feuchtigkeit und vor allem Windscherung. Beides ist morgen zumindest im Westen und Nordwesten ausreichend vorhanden, sodass zumindest dort Unwetter wahrscheinlich sind,

The previous June temperature record in Spain was pulverized this year. #RecordShattering

Es handelt sich vermutlich um einen Messfehler. Mittlerweile ist der Datenstrom auch abgeschaltet.

Yearly Temperature Highs in Essen and Hohenpeißenberg Germany from 1961 to 2024.

It is not only the frequency of #heatwaves that is increasing, but also their intensity. The increase in maximum temperatures is higher than that of the average. In urban regions, we are seeing an increase of 4 degrees in some cases, but the rise is also very significant in rural mountain regions.

Two days of severe #heat with over 38 °C in #Germany! Such temperatures were and still are extreme for the country and therefore potentially dangerous. However, the frequency of severe heat events (>= 38 °C) has been noticeably increasing for around 20 years.

Faktencheck: Temperaturmessungen und Klimatrends in Deutschland enBerichte über die beobachteten Klimatrends in Deutschland führen wiederholt dazu, dass versucht wird, die Datengrundlage in Frage zu stellen (beispielsweise mit unzutreffenden Aussagen im Hinblick a...

Mit der #Hitze entbrennt sicher auch wieder die Diskussion über die Verlässlichkeit und Vergleichbarkeit der Messungen. Der #Faktencheck von @frakaspar.bsky.social vom @dwdderwetterdienst.bsky.social beweist: Die Klimatrends sind real und kein messtechnisches Artefakt! tinyurl.com/22ua6dw6

Ja, insofern "Glück im Unglück". Hoffen wir, dass uns das im Hochsommer zumindest dieses Jahr nochmal erspart bleibt.

... und am 27.07.1983.

Es ist schon eher ungewöhnlich, dass Temperaturen von deutlich über 35 Grad schon gehäuft Ende Juni/Anfang Juli auftreten. Aber Südwesteuropa hat sich schon beizeiten heftig aufgeheizt, dazu kommen die teils recht trockenen Böden ...

Possible new June record temperature in Spain:
→ On the 28th, temperatures reached 46°C in El Granado (Huelva). This figure, pending validation, would be the highest temperature measured in Spain in June since records began.

→ It exceeds the 45.2 °C of Seville (June 1965)