Predictive Science Inc.

Introducing spherical harmonics to analyze the dominant spatial scales of the magnetic field in each run allowed Caroline to quantify the structure and draw concrete, compelling correlations. This work is part of Caroline's PhD thesis work; more of her fascinating is coming soon!

The team also showed that a highly structured surface magnetic field meant that more heat was injected into the corona overall. This is related to the total unsigned flux, as well as changes in flux-tube expansion that attenuates the waves that reflect within coronal loops.

By using a range of resolutions for the input magnetic field, the team found that fine-scale structure in the photosphere led to much more structured heating and connectivity in the middle corona (a region where many physical transitions occur, critical for solar wind formation).

In @caroline-evans, Cooper Downs, and Don Schmit's new #ApJ paper, a series of simulations at increasing resolution uncover the correlation between magnetic complexity and coronal heating. The MAS model acted as a lab to probe difficult-to-observe scales.
buff.ly/ls2p29Z

Pete and Michal found the #risk varies by a factor of >100 from the strongest to the weakest solar cycles observed over the past ~80 years.

Punchline: If the strength of the cycle can be #forecast with accuracy, this variability can be predicted.

🚨📄 New paper alert! 📄🚨
In their new paper published in Space Weather, PSI's Pete Riley and Michal Ben-Nun find that the chances of an extreme #spaceweather event depends strongly on the strength of the #solar cycle.

What does this mean? Read on below!
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Using #MPI to run from 1-1000s of CPU cores, it can also run on 1+ #NVIDIA/#Intel #GPUs for fast local calculations.
GitHub repository examples help you get started.
For easy PFSS+CS solutions try running our SWiG pkg that uses POT3D.
Information on SWiG coming soon - stay tuned!

Need to calculate potential field solutions of the solar corona, really fast, for grids up to billions of cells (doi.org/10.3847/1538...), or on nonlinear grids (to refine the #solution in ROIs)?
Check out PSI's POT3D code at github.com/predsci/pot3d!
#github #modeling #computing

James Turtle's poster "Melding Vector and Line-of-Sight Magnetogram Data for Assimilation into Surface Flux Transport Models" examines PSI's data-driven methods for combining HMI Line-Of-Sight (LOS) and vector products using our #python package MagMap (buff.ly/dK2ktYE).

Slava Titov's poster "A New Approach for Extrapolating Photospheric Vector Magnetic Data to the Chromospheric Level" applies his recent breakthrough in decomposing magnetic fields into their components to derive chromospheric magnetic fields: buff.ly/VahwYDA

Erika Palmerio's talk "Global MHD Modelling to Support the Next Generation of White-Light Imagers" highlighted the utility of supplementing white-light imagers old and new with analogous forward-modeled imagery created using 3D MHD simulations: buff.ly/sLx13p1

Ryder Davidson's poster "MHDweb: An Interactive Visualization Toolkit" showcases PSI's #data #visualization suite whose web-based interface analyzes our Coronal and Heliospheric MAS model solutions and compares the results with in-situ #spacecraft data: buff.ly/2or5UXJ

Emily Mason's talk "Statistical Study of Long-Lived Active Regions" details a newly-identified pool of active regions that last for several solar rotations, and which produce roughly 4-7 times more significant flares than their counterparts: buff.ly/99S2e51

Pete's invited talk, "Quantifying Uncertainty in Solar Wind and CME Forecasts: Recent Progress & Future Directions" reviews the current state of solar wind modeling, covers recent efforts in addressing uncertainty, and introduced the PSI model sunRunner3d: buff.ly/q5IK39S

Pete Riley's talk "Using #WISPR measurements and global #MHD models to better understand the evolution of the solar corona," analyzes WISPR data from 2018--2025 and applies statistical and #ML techniques to quantify #CME kinematics and streamer morphology: buff.ly/C4UQNGr

Jon Linker's talk "Dynamics of the Time-Dependent Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere" reviews our ground-breaking near-real-time, data-driven eclipse simulation and compares its results with steady-state MHD and PFSS models using the same boundary data: buff.ly/99S2e51

Cooper Downs' poster, "The Unique Prospects of High-Latitude Observations:A Modeling Perspective" illustrates the ways in which remote-sensing and in situ instruments far from the ecliptic can improve our theoretical understanding of the Sun-Earth system. buff.ly/z8Ve24Q

Did you miss #AGU25, or perhaps just didn't make it to every session? You can still catch up with our presentations through AGU's recordings, and summaries here. Scroll through the thread to see what we covered!
#science #heliophysics #solar #stem

We're excited to announce that we're back to posting on X, and launching our new presence on BlueSky! 🚀

Even though we've been quiet on social media, we've been hard at work on the science front. Looking forward to sharing updates about our projects and breakthroughs on a regular basis. #StayTuned