P. Oli

Last week, the names and faces of another 1676 dead orcs were published on Telegram. This is the third highest weekly value since I started watching this channel. #Kursk #Sumy #Crimea #Pokrovsk #Ukraine

Last week, the names and faces of another 1778 dead orcs were published on Telegram. This is the highest weekly value since I started watching this channel. #Kursk #Sumy #Crimea #Pokrovsk #Ukraine

Last week, the names and faces of another 1649 dead orcs were published on Telegram. This is the third highest weekly value since I started watching this channel. #Kursk #Sumy #Crimea #Pokrovsk #Ukraine

. @euromaidanpress.bsky.social also comes to the conclusion that, according to GSUA reports, the entire pre-war stocks of Ork artillery should now be gone. What should remain are 500-1000 North Korean systems and a few new productions. Let's see #Ukraine #UkraineVictory2025 bsky.app/profile/p-ol...

3. The final fireworks - the fact that Sauron & his lackey Gerasimov are acting absolutely irrationally on strategic level has been clear since “Kyiv in 3 days” & all the “encirclement of the Donbass” plans. We'll know in a few weeks whether this is the case again. #UkraineVictory2025 #MUGA

2. GSUA counts mortar systems with caliber < 100mm. Possible, but would be misleading and inaccurate. The loss of mortars would be just as difficult and nonsensical to count as broken rifles or grenade launchers. Also inconclusive that only 5000 such systems were lost by mid-2023 ...

1. GSUA counts incorrectly/redundantly - GSUA always conveys that they only count what can irrevocably no longer be used. But then it must stop at 26000-26500 lost systems. The combination of Soviet stocks + North Korea + some new production does not allow for more than that ...

Shortly before the target value of 26,100, the GSUA loss figures for Ork artillery systems go through the roof. This requires time for clarification and I will pause my end of war prediction until then. First, three possible clarification approaches: ... bsky.app/profile/p-ol... #Ukraine #Belgorod

Prediction of last Sunday:
bsky.app/profile/p-ol...

#Ukraine #UkraineWillWin #MUGA

Details of that forecast:

Total number pre-war systems: 25600
DPRK systems: 500
Systems lost so far: 24561
Average daily artillery loss since 16.02.25 (last 30 days): 46.52
Days remaining: (26100-24561)/46.52=33.08

rounded up: 34 days from today
-> We land on April 19, 2025

Prediction for the end of the war of the orks against Ukrainians

-- THE WAR ENDS ON 19 APR 2025 --
(no change to last Sunday)

The next forecast will come next Sunday
Explanation & basic thoughts: bsky.app/profile/p-ol...

#Kursk #Crimea #Pokrovsk #Ukraine #UkraineVictory2025

Prediction of last Sunday:
bsky.app/profile/p-ol...

#Ukraine #UkraineWillWin #MUGA

Details of that forecast:

Total number pre-war systems: 25600
DPRK systems: 500
Systems lost so far: 24206
Average daily artillery loss since 09.02.25 (last 30 days): 47.29
Days remaining: (26100-24206)/47.29=40.05

rounded up: 41 days from today
-> We land on April 19, 2025

Prediction for the end of the war of the orks against Ukrainians

-- THE WAR ENDS ON 19 APR 2025 --
(last Sunday: 15 APR 2025)

The next forecast will come next Sunday
Explanation & basic thoughts: bsky.app/profile/p-ol...

#Kursk #Crimea #Sudzha #Ukraine #UkraineVictory2025

...a too strong Europe with a victorious Ukraine and a defeated russia, he is now trying to ruin this calculation shortly before this point in time. I at least hope that he is too late with this attempt. <END> #MUGA #MEGA #UkraineVictory2025 #Ukraine

... away from the time when at least the stalemate will be broken and the Orks will only have the strategic defense as an option, which will lead to months of humiliating retreat battles. Since Trump/MAGA fears ... <3/4> #UkraineWillWin #Ukraine

Nevertheless I'm still of the opinion that russian warfare will simply not work without artillery. And I think that the mass deployment of combat drones will only change this to a limited extent. So I'm convinced that we are only a few weeks... <2/4> #Ukraine #UkraineWillWin

A few basic thoughts on the end-of-war forecast: It's certainly a justified objection that a forecast that only takes into account the attrition of a single type of weapon does not take into account the complexity of the war... 1/4 #Crimea #Kursk #Toretsk #Ukraine bsky.app/profile/p-ol...

Last week, the names and faces of another 1475 dead orcs were published on Telegram. As long as I have been watching this channel, the value has never been below 1000 for a whole week. #Kursk #Toretsk #Crimea #Pokrovsk #Ukraine bsky.app/profile/p-ol...

Prediction of last Sunday:
bsky.app/profile/p-ol...

#Ukraine #UkraineWillWin #MUGA

Details of that forecast:

Total number pre-war systems: 25600
DPRK systems: 500
Systems lost so far: 23959
Average daily artillery loss since 02.02.25 (last 30 days): 49.24
Days remaining: (26100-23959)/49.24=43.48

rounded up: 44 days from today
-> We land on April 15, 2025

Prediction for the end of the war of the orks against Ukrainians

-- THE WAR ENDS ON 15 APR 2025 --
(last Sunday: 23 APR 2025)

The next forecast will come next Sunday
Explanation of this forecast: x.com/P__Oli/statu...

#Kursk #Crimea #Pokrovsk #UkraineVictory2025

Prediction of last Sunday:
bsky.app/profile/p-ol...

#Ukraine #UkraineWillWin #MUGA

Details of that forecast:

Total number pre-war systems: 25600
DPRK systems: 500
Systems lost so far: 23582
Average daily artillery loss since 23.01.25 (last 30 days): 42.77
Days remaining: (26100-23582)/42.77=58.87

rounded up: 59 days from today
-> We land on April 23, 2025

Prediction for the end of the war of the orks against Ukrainians

-- THE WAR ENDS ON 23 APR 2025 --
(last Sunday: 19 APR 2025)

The next forecast will come next Sunday
Explanation of this forecast: x.com/P__Oli/statu...

#Kursk #Crimea #Pokrovsk #UkraineVictory2025

That may be. But to compare it to the game of chess: It is the point where a draw is no longer possible, but is inevitable with mate in a few moves.

According to the IISS, the pre-war artillery inventory of the orcs was not 25000 but rather 25600. I will use this value for the calculation from tomorrow. However, the predicted day will not change much due to the current high loss rate. www.iiss.org/publications...

As the GSUA loss figures for Ork artillery have gone through the roof in recent weeks and the predicted end-of-war day is approaching in leaps and bounds, I'll take this opportunity to sharpen the target value a little. 1/2 #Kursk #Pokrovsk #Crimea #Ukraine bsky.app/profile/p-ol...

Last week, the names and faces of another 1640 dead orcs were published on Telegram. This is the third highest weekly value since I started watching this channel. #Kursk #Belgorod #Crimea #Pokrovsk #Ukraine bsky.app/profile/p-ol...

The current predicted end-of-war-date (mid/late April) is only a snapshot. In the end, it may actually be the case that Sauron announces the end of his “SMO” on May 8 or 9. bsky.app/profile/dart... #Ukraine #UkraineVictory2025