Matthias Rottner

Thanks for sharing!

27.06.2025 17:10 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

This is important. Many of the existing geopolitical and other risk measures are too Anglo-centric. Here the authors use European newspapers, hence e.g. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has much larger and lasting effect on perceived risks in Europe. This increase is basically adverse supply shock=bad.

26.06.2025 06:59 — 👍 8    🔁 3    💬 2    📌 0

Graph of geopolitical risk indexes of the euro area and the Anglosphere. Geopolitical risk is a key concern for the euro area, yet most available measures reflect a US perspective. This column introduces a new indicator of geopolitical risk tailored specifically to the euro area, based entirely on newspaper coverage from local sources. The authors show that shocks to this index have significant recessionary and inflationary effects, even when controlling for ‘global’ geopolitical risk. For anyone seeking to assess geopolitical risk in Europe, this euro area indicator offers a missing regional lens.

Yevheniia Bondarenko, Vivien Lewis, @matthiasrottner.bsky.social, & Yves Schüler introduce a new indicator of geopolitical #risk tailored specifically to the euro area, based entirely on newspaper coverage from local sources.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

24.06.2025 07:36 — 👍 12    🔁 4    💬 0    📌 2

Climate policies could affect financial stability if they lead to large changes in asset returns. This column studies the financial stability and welfare effects of such ‘climate Minsky moments’ using a novel quantitative macroeconomic model with carbon taxes and endogenous financial crises. An accelerated net zero transition aligned with the Paris Agreement temporarily increases the probability of a financial crisis, before resulting in a lower long-run crisis probability. However, the welfare losses are small relative to the real costs and benefits of the net zero transition. Therefore, ‘climate Minsky moments’ do not warrant delaying ambitious climate policy.

An accelerated #net-zero transition temporarily increases the probability of a financial crisis. However, the welfare losses are small relative to the real costs and benefits of the net zero transition.
Matthias Kaldorf @bundesbank.de, @matthiasrottner.bsky.social
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

05.02.2025 09:01 — 👍 7    🔁 3    💬 1    📌 0

Please submit to our conference on "Structural Changes and the Implications for Inflation" organized jointly Danmarks Nationalbank, Deutsche Bundesbank, and Norges Bank.

On a private note: Looking forward to being part of the organization of a conference for the first time!

30.10.2023 13:15 — 👍 4    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0

New call for papers. Conference on:
"Structural Changes and the Implications for Inflation"
Eltville (near Frankfurt), 7-8 May 2024.
PDF of call: matthias-rottner.github.io/Files/Confer...
Submission link: www.conftool.pro/business-cyc...
Please submit!

28.10.2023 22:51 — 👍 14    🔁 10    💬 0    📌 1