Ben Walker

Reform has eaten the Tory recovery Things aren't so rosy for Britain's Grand Old Party

Reform has eaten the Tory recovery
britainelects.substack.com/p/reform-has...
— @bwalker.uk

Labour has put the EU back on the agenda. Will the party regret it? The issue is low on the agenda for almost all British voters. But the reset could still be a political gift for the government.

New post: Will Labour's trumpeted re-Brexit deal bite it in the backside? www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...

Reform opens up a 4pt lead; Tories below 20%. Britain Elects poll tracker
britainelects.substack.com/p/whos-ahead...

*looking at divisions which changed hands*
Oh, there's a Labour one over there. What happened?
*looks*
ah

Does the left know how to debate immigration? Labour's deference to Reform narratives on boats and borders is losing them the debate from the get-go.

Re-upping what I wrote in January now there's 600+ Reform councillors:

"The left" (Labour or otherwise) does not know how to debate immigration
open.substack.com/pub/britaine...

Don't think you can stream on Bluesky dot com, so for the anti-Twitter crowd that's youtube.com/@britainelects

10 o'clock streaming service over at @britainelects.com

Screencap from Elder Scrolls Oblivion. A dialog box says "How long would you like to sleep? 9 Hours."

What I like about role-playing games is that they allow you to act out power fantasies that you could never achieve in real life.

A nugget in this story:

Defence Secretary John Healey this week told the PLP that Runcorn was too tight to call and urged Labour MPs to get up to Cheshire before polls close on Thursday

@bwalker.uk modelling suggests there could be just a few hundred votes in it between Labour and Reform

Reviewing our local election forecast

Okay interesting. More in Common polling gives us some variation on the mayorals.

Greens ahead by 4 or behind by 5 in the West of England.

Reform ahead by 15 or 3 in Lincolnshire.

Cons ahead by 12 or 7 in Cambs and P'borough.

& Reform ahead by 13 or 3 in Hull and E Yorks.

Britain Elects stream this weekend.

I think all mention of the Lord Ashcroft poll should note the glaring undersampling of the rural (less Reform friendly) third of the constituency. It accounts for just 2% of the weighted sample!

1st May 2025: the most important local elections in decades? The elections of 1st May could decide the next four years in a way other "mid-term" contests don't

Runcorn will define the next four years in a way other mid-term parliament protests don't.
👉 britainelects.substack.com/p/1st-may-20...

4 panel comic titled Right Winger getting cancelled Panel 1: Newspaper headline: I HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. Subheading: Bront Fondant speaks exclusively to the Times. Panel 2: Bront Fondant speaking on BBC Radio: “…Forced into silence” Panel 3: Bront Fondant talking to Sky News: “Unseen. Unheard.” Panel 4: Bront Fondant giving a speech in front of a huge audience. He screams “CONDEMNED to live in OBSCURITY”

4 panel comic titled Trans Person Getting Cancelled Panel 1: Is empty Panel 2: Is empty Panel 3: Is empty Panel 4: Is empty

right winger getting cancelled vs. trans person getting cancelled

Labour has lost its lead on the economy. Why?

On the offensive: it has misread the room on welfare, + poor comms has meant the only memorable policy has been winter fuel.

On the defensive: voters want cost of living relief. Until that happens...

👉 britainelects.substack.com/p/labour-los...

Something to consider:

Few councils will be counting on Thu night. Of those that will they are more Reform friendly than the typical.

There's also Runcorn.

Could be a very good night for Reform (defining Fri's coverage too), with little airtime for any other winners.

Runcorn and Helsby model update out next week...

New post: what's up and where #LE2025

www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...

This is made up, right? Nobody has really set up a grouping called “Hard Labour” and come out with this usual plethora of banality but in a combative manner like they are the first men ever to start a fight in a pub car park. This is satire, surely it’s satire

Twitter post asking: Should we be told where we can walk out dogs? Yes or No Above a screenshot of a news headline: 'This is an Islamic area now. Don't walk your dogs here': Police probe sign in east London park

Are Muslims really banning dogs in parks? 🤔

Let’s look at this perfect example of how rage baiting works, and how disinformation spreads, sticks, and fuels division, even years after being debunked…

🧵1/22 (1/1)

Small additions, but important additions, to this year's local election service @britainelects.com

New post: Australia!

Here is a country where the opposition Liberals (conservatives) have abandoned precision attacks on the cost of living to tack right on culture wars.

It may have cost them the election.

Read:
www.newstatesman.com/internationa...

40% Reform. Best vote for Ukip here was 23% in 2014, 16% for the BNP in 2006.

Real eye opener. Labour underperform my model by 10pts, Reform overperform by 10.

LE2025: quite possibly the first series of local elections where not one ward on mainland Britain has a candidate elected unopposed.

Average # of candidates per ward: 6
Average # of parties per ward: 5

britainelects.com

Caller Steve believes he’s found the solution to cleaning Birmingham's streets during the bin strikes.
 
@tomswarbrick.bsky.social got his calculator out to see how much it would cost.

Into Wales or just got off?

This will be put to the test in Runcorn and Helsby. Will Grn and Con voters move to Labour to stop Reform? Or is a Farage win not quite so toxic as people think? www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...