Jorge Liboreiro

Interesting half-baked denial by the Elysee: "The president did not use those words."

According to the transcript, Alexander Stubb said, "We mustn't leave Ukraine and Volodymyr alone with these guys." NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said, "I agree with Alexander, we must protect Volodymyr."

(S+) Wie sehr der Kanzler und Macron den USA bei den Ukraine-Verhandlungen misstrauen Hören Trumps Unterhändler vor allem auf Russland? Dem SPIEGEL liegt die Mitschrift einer Krisenschalte vor, die zeigt, wie tief das Misstrauen bei den Europäern sitzt – auch bei Kanzler Merz und Präsi...

Bombshell report: @derspiegel has obtained a transcript of Monday's conversation in Paris among European leaders and President Zelenskyy.

Macron warned the US could "betray Ukraine on the issue of territories", and Merz said the US was playing "games".

A decade of Brexit: Britain falls behind peers in trade and growth Economic analysis shows UK GDP per capita grew up to 10% less than similar nations as firms froze spending and productivity slipped.

The UK economy is approximately 6% to 8% smaller and investment in the country is 12% to 18% lower than it would have been without Brexit.

Brutal findings by King's College.

Unpacking Ursula von der Leyen's reparations loan to support Ukraine Liquidity guarantees, legal protection, anti-corruption safeguards, 'Made in Europe' criteria: here's how Ursula von der Leyen intends to overcome the Belgian resistance and approve the reparations lo...

Liquidity guarantees for Euroclear.
Ban on returning Russian assets.
Safeguards against retaliation.
No rollback on anti-corruption.
"Made in Europe" preference.

I unpack Ursula von der Leyen's bold proposal for a reparations loan to support Ukraine.

Merz rebukes Trump:

“If we are serious about this, we cannot leave it to non-European states to decide what happens to the financial resources of an aggressor state that have been lawfully frozen within the jurisdiction of our own rule-of-law and in our own currency.”

“It would be unacceptable for any single country to bear a disproportionate burden. I fully understand, in particular, the concerns of the Belgian government, given that the majority of the assets are held there and that Brussels cannot rely solely on political assurances.”

Guest article in the FAZ by the chancellor of Germany | Federal Government Read the guest article by the Federal Chancellor in the FAZ here.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomes the reparations loan and calls on EU leaders to agree that “each member state would shoulder an equal share of the risk relative to its economic capacity.”

During today's presentation of the reparations loan, the Commission insisted the chances of a successful legal challenges are very limited. The risk of a veto to lift the sanctions is removed under Article 122.

But for Belgium, all the risks, even far-fetched, are real.

The statement exposes the big divide in thinking between Belgium and the Commission.
- Belgium wants an all-encompassing coverage against all potential pitfalls, including hypothetical costs
- Commission wants to erect the maximum obstacles to prevent the pitfalls from occurring

But then Prévot says that his country will try to "make the necessary amendments to the option of the reparations loan to address our concerns."

So is there still a chance that Belgium says yes?

To be continued.

Prévot insists that joint EU debt, which von der Leyen also presented today, is "the easiest, fastest and most predictable option, that distributes the burden equally among member states." He hopes to continue "constructive discussions" on joint debt.

Prévot, like Bart De Wever last week, says the guarantees must cover *any* consequence from arbitration under the Belgium-Russia bilateral investment treaty, such as "compound interest" and "lost opportunity".

"Guarantees must cover all financial liabilities from day one."

Prévot exploits the fact that von der Leyen said today that "almost" all Belgian concerns had been taken into account.

"We keep on struggling to understand why that obstinacy against the legitimate concerns of a member state," he says in a statement shared with @shonamurray.bsky.social.

Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot blasts von der Leyen's presentation of the reparations loan, saying the country's three main requests (liquidity for Euroclear, mutualisation of risks and burden-sharing) are not "addressed in a satisfactory manner."

Meanwhile, Federica Mogherini speaks out:

“I have full confidence in the justice system, and I trust that the correctness of the College's actions will be ascertained. I will obviously continue to offer my full collaboration to the authorities."

Stefano Sannino, one of the three suspects in the anti-fraud investigation, has taken a leave of absence as director general of DG MENA. He will be replaced by his deputy.

He will retire at the end of the year, though this was already planned before the news broke on Tuesday.

So at the end of 2027, after having provided €90 billion, the EU could still have €75 billion at its disposal to support Ukraine.

Of course, all of this is highly theoretical.

This means that, in theory, the reparations loan could be as high as €165 billion if all the assets, including those in private banks, are channelled into the initiative.

€210 billion (total assets) - €45 billion (G7 backstop) = €165 billion for the reparations loan

The G7 loan was set up in late 2024 and is supposed to be repaid by the windfall profits of the immobilised Russian assets. But if these assets are channelled into the reparations loan, the windfall profits will cease to exist. Therefore, the EU needs to set €45 billion aside.

Let me clarify the numbers in the reparations loans:

€210 billion: Russian sovereing assets in the EU
€185 billion: Russian assets at Euroclear
€135 billion: Ukraine's needs for 2026 and 2027
€90 billion: the EU's contribution to these needs
€45 billion: the previous G7 loan

Meanwhile, Federica Mogherini speaks out:

"I have full confidence in the justice system, and I trust that the correctness of the College's actions will be ascertained. I will obviously continue to offer my full collaboration to the authorities."

Mystery solved: the remaining €25 billion in Russian sovereign assets located inside the EU are in... France, Belgium, Sweden, Germany and Cyprus.

These assets are located in private banks, as opposed to central securities depositories like Euroclear, which has €185 billion.

Von der Leyen pushes ahead with reparations loan as Belgium holds firm Ursula von der Leyen has offered sweeping guarantees for Belgium to agree to an unprecedented reparations loan for Ukraine. Belgian authorities say risks could be fatal. EU leaders will gather on 18 D...

🚨 Just in: Ursula von der Leyen forges ahead with the reparations loan, offering sweeping guarantees to overcome the Belgian opposition.

If there's no deal, she says, the EU will have to raise €45 billion in joint debt.

Full story on the long-awaited presentation.

It seems that Belgium has already seen the legal texts that Ursula von der Leyen will present this afternoon.

The proposal doesn't address the Belgian concerns in a "satisfactory manner", the foreign minister says.

An ominous sign.

"We are not seeking to antagonise our partners or Ukraine; we are simply seeking to avoid potentially disastrous consequences for a Member State that is being asked to show solidarity without being offered the same solidarity in return."

"The Loan is clearly not our preferred choice. In the event Member States wish to go in that direction, we demand that the risks Belgium is facing as a result of this scheme are fully covered. This is no unreasonable request – this is simply fairness. Any member state would ask for the same."

"Our door has always remained open (but) we have the frustrating feeling of not having been heard. Our concerns are being downplayed. The texts the Commission will table do not address our concerns in a satisfactory manner. It is not acceptable to use the money and leave us alone facing the risks."

"The letter of my Prime Minister outlined again clearly our concerns. In short: (i) the necessary guarantees for Euroclear, (ii) full mutualisation of the risks, (iii) go beyond Euroclear and Belgium. These are legitimate and reasonable concerns."

"This explains why we keep on pleading for an alternative, namely the EU borrowing the amount needed on the markets. It is a well-known, secure and well-established option, with predictable parameters."