Gbenga Ajilore

You can call for serious economists to resign, but that assumes any serious economist would have signed up for this in the first place.

Constantly pointing out that the regime is corrupt doesn't do anything. You have to tell people what you plan to do about said corruption. But again, there's no opposition party so we're left with simple narration.

I have to say, I'm not a fan of the firing of experts and the potential future manipulation of economic data, but I'm even less of a fan of whisking people off the streets and shipping them off to far-flung prisons without due process.

I keep thinking about this one.

-SNAP, Section 8, Social Security, SSI, veteran's benefits all directly use CPI in benefit calculation
-UI benefit levels are based on local wage levels
-Extended UI benefits triggered by local unemployment rates
-Medicaid, TANF based on FPL (CPI-adjusted)

It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy. It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.

Can’t do it. There’s just no substitute. We could get some useful info for sure, but BLS and rest of government stat infrastructure irreplaceable. For one, they make such info a public good. Who wants to pay for the unemployment rate? (I mean, I would, but u know what I mean.)

We are going to end up with something like the Waffle House Index to measure distress in the economy

My point is that the tweet you QT was about economists and we are not okay, not because he lies, but because of what may happen to the data.

But the problem is not that he is lying - the problem is whether we can know if a recession is coming and actually conduct policies to counteract it.

The potential for harm is immense.

Actually if you could get Pushing Daisies back on by firing the head of reality, I am all for it.

a man wearing a hat and a necklace with the words #thepeoplescheerleader ALT: a man wearing a hat and a necklace with the words #thepeoplescheerleader

This point cannot be stressed enough. Day 1 this administration created DOGE for the specific purpose of firing people.

Then it engaged in cruel mass deportations that is decimating the immigrant workforce.

AND using "anti-DEI" narratives to fire people of color.

So yeah, job numbers will be bad.

screenshot of the linked post titled "Trump’s firing of BLS commissioner is undemocratic and economically dangerous" by Heidi Shierholz, which reads: Today, Trump directed his team to fire the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) because he didn’t like the jobs numbers they released. This is a move straight out of an autocratic playbook. BLS is one of the most respected statistical agencies in the world, known for its methodological rigor, independence, and transparency. The president’s belief that the BLS commissioner personally “produced” the jobs numbers is preposterous and shows a complete misunderstanding of how government statistical agencies operate. These data are the product of careful work by hundreds of expert economists, statisticians, and civil servants following transparent, well-established methodologies.

From @hshierholz.bsky.social: Trump's firing of BLS commissioner is undemocratic and economically dangerous. Between illegal firings, starving data agencies of resources, and now political intimidation, the US looks set to run into the next economic downturn flying blind

www.epi.org/press/trumps...

This is evidence that BLS needs more resources and staff to do their job, not to fire the Commissioner.

And this is not new - funding for statistical agencies has lagged for years. americanprogress.org/article/the-...

Every time I teach American economic history I stress that accurate macroeconomic data is critical for our knowledge of the economy. I also tell them that we have a very high standard of data quality in our modern federal statistics. I may no longer be in a position to say this. Absolutely terrible!

Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Revisions between over-the-month estimates, 1979-present

For people saying these jobs numbers revisions are "unprecedented", here's a record of previous revisions back to 1979. Triple-digit downward revisions aren't common, but they've certainty happened before. www.bls.gov/web/empsit/c...

CBPP's @gbenga_ajilore dives into some noteworthy numbers from today's #JobsReport: youtube.com/shorts/Q27KJ...

For more detailed analysis of the report, check out his thread below. ⬇️

Black women’s unemployment is rising. Economists say it’s a warning sign. New data released Thursday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics marked the third straight month of high unemployment rates for Black women.

We have new Jobs numbers out today and unemployment for Black women remains high. It's now 6.3% — the highest for any group of women.
Last couple of months:
March: 5.1%
April: 6.1%
May: 6.2%
June: 5.8%
July: 6.3%

Last time it was this high was fall 2021.
19thnews.org/2025/07/blac...

In conclusion, the July #JobsReport shows a softening labor market. Now with the August 1 tariffs coming into effect as well as other trade “deals,” costs for families & businesses will rise putting further strain on the economy. (/end)

Want to add that the ISM Manufacturing Index is at a nine-month low of 48 (estimate 49.5), further showing weakness in the manufacturing sector. (8b/9)

Manufacturing employment fell by 11K jobs with jobs falling by 17K last month. Now with tariffs on copper (not the raw material) and existing tariffs on steel and aluminum, this sector will continue to struggle. (8a/9) (h/t: @prestonmui.bsky.social )

I want to end this thread with trade, given Liberation Day 3.0. This recent @equitablegrowth piece explores tariff impacts of U.S. industries and finds that manufacturing is one of the most exposed. (7/9) equitablegrowth.org/tariffs-impa...

Looking at LFPR & EPOP for prime-age folks (age 25-54), both measures fell slightly this month. (6/9)

Breaking down the standard (U3) unemployment data by race/ethnicity, the Black-White difference jumped as the Black rate rose by more than the White rate rose, and the Black rate continues to exceed all other groups at 7.2%. (5/9)

U6 – a measure of underemployment – rose to 7.9% from 7.7%. In addition to the other indicators is a red flag, though a one-month jump could be a blip. (4/9)

Effects of the Immigration Surge on the Federal Budget and the Economy An increase in immigration over the 2021–2026 period boosts federal revenues as well as mandatory spending and interest on the debt in CBO’s baseline projections, lowering deficits, on net, by $0.9 tr...

We need to highlight that this decline in the number is a concern because the increasing number of immigrant workers in the labor force had been key to recent economic growth. See this CBO report: www.cbo.gov/publication/... (3/9)

In addition to the softness in the labor, we are starting to see the effects of the administration’s cruel and inhumane deportation scheme, with the foreign-born labor force falling for a fourth consecutive month. (2/9)

My brief thoughts on today’s #JobsReport: The labor market is showing softness with payrolls increasing by only 73,000 & the unemployment ticking up to 4.2%. Payroll growth in May and June was overstated by 250K‼️. (1/9)

Thinking about this headline for no reason, right now...

TBF, we are NOT in a recession but maybe - just maybe - the economists were righ.t #JobsDay

Stealing this for my thread!