Vince Jansen

This probably isn't weak enough to short, or even sell, going into 2025. I'm still long, but cognizant of valuations. My ears are up for more.

These confirmation indicators lead by ~4 months:
1) Business Applications (strong)
2) Loan Standards (medium)
3) Home Sales (mediocre)
4) Financial Conditions (strong)

These data suggest real growth holds up into Q1, albeit weaker. I'm watching closely for next summer though.

Leading data need help and they've needed help since Q1. Housing data has poured cold water on the idea of easing. Seems like the Fed wants to help but can't. 2025 could be a 🥒-zone!

Only thing I'll say is that I don't think leading data are recessionary, just very low growth.

This was the chart that finally got me. Explains so much about how/why people stayed too bearish over the past few years.

Misleading Data (Surveys) The best financial data are descriptive of a prevalent investment concept and predictive of a key performance indicator.

I saw one too many examples of bad survey data and decided to immortalize my negativity towards them.
www.artificialalphainvestments.com/p/misleading...

Buffett Indicator, Shiller ratio... They just don't work.
www.artificialalphainvestments.com/p/misleading...

The labor force data were not ideal last Friday

Back to 2021/1999 valuations

I like a long-term view on this whenever it turns (5 year timeframe?) so I think a trade could easily turn into an investment on this one

Coin already launched, funding secured

Despite a decent setup, valuations don't matter short-term. Need an economic shock before valuations matter. I thought the first China stimulus rhetoric could be that shock, but it wasn't. Bob doesn't seem to think this time will be any different. bsky.app/profile/bobe...

3) Extended USD

The real dollar is extended, suggesting that valuation gaps and concentration extremes are not fully justified.

2) USA equity concentration

The ratio between the S&P 500 and the MSCI Emerging Markets index is the highest it has been since the 1960s.

1) Forward P/Es

1995:
EM 25x
US 13x
US outperforms by 20% per year for 5 years

2001:
EM 10x
US 20x
EM outperforms by 20% per year for 5 years

Now
EM 12x
US 22x

Like everything else, emerging market equities are at valuation and concentration extremes. I like using valuations and concentration as evidence that investors are mispricing something going forward.

Two problems with the so-called 'Buffett Indicator' 🤔 The stock market valuation metric has some comparability issues 🤦🏻‍♂️

Two problems with the so-called 'Buffett Indicator' 🤔 www.tker.co/p/warren-buf...

The economy and markets seem incredibly boring to me right now, which is when short VIX and long mega-caps has done well in recent years. At some point this will stop working, but it's been the cycle lately.

The Russell 2000 is a bad index and doesn't deserve consideration imo. I'd suggest comparing the S&P 400 vs. the S&P 600. Or here is the CRSP version of VO/VB.

The MSTR "leverage" seems a lot less productive, which was already a low bar.

Bitcoin is engineered as a reserve asset. Leverage is being built on top of Bitcoin, that seems obvious without knowing the magnitude. Whether or not Bitcoin acts like a reserve asset when the leverage on top of it cracks is the question. The SBF deleveraging is n = 1.

Reset your easing clocks

Aaaaaaaand... 💩

and retaliatory tariffs stand to kill the dollar more than BRICS currencies because we would be exporting less dollars via lower net imports. Value outperforming growth since the election, seemingly confirming the above. What am I missing?

Can someone explain the stronger dollar post-election? Trump is on record advocating for a weaker dollar, his desired policies carry a higher deficit than Harris's, he's already bullied the Fed into lower rates and intends to do it again,

On the opposite end, online echo chambers are pretty damaging though imo. I left Reddit back in the day because I couldn't control the echo-chambers on my feed.

Honestly, Bitcoin

Clients don't know what a "fiduciary rule" is

Free DampedSpring report dampedspring.com/wp-content/u...

My next decision is whether to take a tax hit on S&P 500 capital gains in my brokerage accounts so I can rotate more. That's a much bigger hurdle than what I've done so far. I'll be waiting for sufficient evidence that this is turning into a 5 year story like I suspect.