Roger Francis

Ukraine reports every day about how many Russian combatants it has eliminated, but it would be fascinating to know how many extra casualties there are from accidents behind the lines and disciplinary actions. The stream of anecdotes suggests it is non-trivial.

Karma - more please

Always room for some more pressure John. Howabout closing the Channel to sanctioned tankers?

New targets needed

Great stats. It would be interesting to also know the average lag between when a death occurs and when its added to the list.

Well that's a surprise (not)

Just get on with it!

I was surprised by the UK result. Regular polling by YouGov looks more credible to me

Russia’s consolidated budget deficit reached almost 4% of GDP in 2025 As Russian regions shoulder more war costs and social security funds are depleted, the consolidated budget balance has deteriorated far more than expected.

Russia's fiscal situation is worse than expected: The consolidated budget had a deficit of nearly 4% of GDP in 2025. Regions are under pressure from increasing war costs. Social funds were forced to draw down their reserves after federal transfers were cut. Read: open.substack.com/pub/janisklu...

Pretty big deal at the battlefield level.

Thanks for the extra background

The Telegraph has fallen a long long way

There's usualy a good interception rate for attacks on Kyiv

Please don't regurgitate headlines from the Daily Mail

Alternatively, they can't fix the damage easily and are 'making the best of it' from a propaganda perspective

Its amazing that the Russians keep using this airfield

But surely Trump prefers non-democracries like China, Russia & Saudi.

No info yet on how much Canada is expected to pay for access.

These are good interception stats, either the Russians were attacking well defended targets or Ukrainian defences have improved.

More needed I think

The UK does not celebrate a victory over Germany, it remembers its fallen (or as Trump is reported to have called US war dead "losers" and "suckers")

Nice graph ...looking forward to Dec!

Of course getting out of extended deterrence is a recipe for proliferation which brings a whole new set of risks.

Excellent work, very high intercept rate

Ought to be a no-brainer

The New US Sanctions Move Actually Protects Russia For Now Think Four Weeks, Not Two

A new free piece released. The Trump "harsh" sanctions on Russia last night were anything but. They actually provide protection for Russia's biggest oil customers to transact business for at least the next 4 weeks--and have no automatic sanction after that. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Alternatively this is Trump's latest wheeze to avoid doing anything given the low probability that the EU/NATO will let him corral them into a trade war under his direction

Thanks ....subscribed!

Thanks, I took a proper look 🙂

This was the report I remembered, it claims Russian recruitment has slumped well below target levels.

bsky.app/profile/noel...