Aditya Dasgupta

political pressure

Sir Ian McKellen performing a monologue from Shakespeare’s Sir Thomas More on the Stephen Colbert show. Never have I heard this monologue performed with such a keen sense of prescience. Nor have I ever been in this exact historical moment.TY Sir Ian, for reaching us once again.
#Pinks #ProudBlue

Interesting argument…( although the title is bothering me — worse than war: the costs of [concept that includes war] )

Everyone talks about the "credibility revolution", but I think one of the most valuable shifts in econ over the last decade has been the rise of rigorous descriptive historical work like this in top journals:

nobel peace prize never fails

does seem like an empirical regularity

claude code is fucking insane

i know literally NOTHING about Hegel. ZERO. and it just built me a complete system of German idealism

very cool

Social science has been solved: Write 1600 lines of instructions to Claude Code to generate a publishable paper based exclusively on silicon samples.

Econ Nobel Prize here I come.

unbearable stupidity

Yes that’s ridiculous. I’d personally write to the editor first and then withdraw it if it’s not sent out within a reasonable time frame…

There is growing interest in HPE about social conflict in the run-up to the French Revolution.

In a new article at Data & Corpus, I describe the Jean Nicolas Database, a database of 8,516 rebellions in France (1661-1789)

👉Article: doi.org/10.46298/dc....
👉Database: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...

🧵1/6

Survey experiments have become a popular methodology among social scientists. Has it been effective?

In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.

Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...

had a chance to visit the Indian agricultural research institute (IARI) fields yesterday — where many of the crops grown in India are/were developed, including the varieties responsible for the green revolution

VB-G RAM G BILL INTRODUCED IN LOK SABHA: Opp protests dropping Gandhi’s name; welfare of poor our priority, says Govt Opp flags fiscal burden on states; Bill ensures all-round progress: Chouhan

India’s rural employment guarantee program, one of the world’s biggest safety nets — and possibly the most studied program in the history of development economics? — is at serious risk of being repealed: indianexpress.com/article/indi...

📣📣📣 GREAT, time-sensitive opportunity for senior/mid-career scholars to join us in Madrid at UC3M´s social sciences department (UC3M-ATRAE Program 2026) on an attractive pay+research funds package 📣📣📣

This does NOT happen everyday.

THREAD below if this is of interest 1/n

Fascinating. Linking two other important works on US regional culture: books.google.co.in/books?hl=en&... (Albion's Seed: Four British Folkways in America) and onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... (Frontier culture: The roots and persistence of “rugged individualism” in the United States)

Fair enough, it's the widespread leap from that to -> inference about real-world equilibrium behavior/outcomes that perturbs me but I can see how that's an improvement as far as trying to model the individual process of political cognition

I can appreciate that. What do you see as an example of a topic where survey experiments have greatly improved knowledge greatly over the old approach? Asking out it curiosity as I come at the whole thing from a CP/PE as perspective opposed to behavior

Excited to post the latest version of my JMP: The female labor supply constraints of spousal jealousy bit.ly/4nn9apn

I use two field experiments to study the role of spousal jealousy in constraining married women’s employment. More below 👇:

I agree with this — survey experiments represent a different intellectual lineage from usage of natural experiments to overcome real-world endogeneity (credibility revolution). That said, I think collective confusion that randomization=credible has given survey experiments too much epistemic status

> Between 1995 and 2021 (our sample period), there were a total of 47 individuals who have been a congressional leader; 20 of whom made stock trades both before and after ascension to leadership.

Curious to read your reasoning. Mine: 1. informational equivalence effectively makes them observational quite often: 2. credibility revolution was about empirical strategies to overcome real-world endogeneity, survey exps do opposite, identification by removing realism

I agree with this 100%

I wouldn't disagree in principle, it would just seem rare in practice in social science that there aren't plausibly many open backdoor paths paths or reverse causality between X and Y...? especially when it comes to 'big' variables we typically care about

This is about to radicalize me against the credibility revolution

Go home prediction markets: you’re drunk

Political prediction markets moved billions in 2024, but new evidence shows they weren’t very accurate or efficient

PredictIt beat chance 93% of the time

Kalshi? 78%

Polymarket? 67%

Big price divergences, weak/negative correlations, & rampant arbitrage

the case for slower, better/more careful research papers in poli sci gets another data point in its favor

thanks for reading and glad you found it interesting…!