Lev Nachman

Quoting David Sacks:

“It was easy to mischaracterize [The Six Assurances] for nearly 40 years because from 1982 until 2020 the Six Assurances were classified, so a mischaracterization could not officially be rebutted. But now the full cable and assurances are in the public domain.”

Declassified Cables: Taiwan Arms Sales & Six Assurances (1982) - American Institute in Taiwan

Proper full text of the Six Assurances below here for reference, quoted language above is technically incorrect.

www.ait.org.tw/declassified...

Trump’s language is dangerous beyond any of Biden’s gaffes. It infers Xi has a say in the nature of US arm sales to Taiwan at best, and violates the Six Assurances at worst. If Trump does not release a clarifying statement as soon as possible, then we should be deeply concerned.

Pending clarification that we hopefully get tomorrow, this very well could be in violation of the Six Assurances:

bsky.app/profile/sens...

Trump directly violates the 3rd of the 1982 Six Assurances: ‘The United States would not consult with China in advance before making decisions about U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.’ www.taiwandocuments.org/assurances.htm

To quote Tom Wright from Brookings:

“This is much worse than AOC’s answer on Taiwan. She was struggling to find the words to avoid saying the wrong thing on a really complicated policy. Trump send to be saying he is negotiating with Xi on arms sales to Taiwan.”

Trump Says He’ll Soon Make Decision on Weapon Sales to Taiwan President Donald Trump said that he’s discussing future weapons sales to Taiwan with Chinese President Xi Jinping and teased that he would soon make a decision about future defense support for the sel...

If weapon sales to Taiwan are openly on the table for US-China talks, then we are truly entering a new era of uncertainty.

Even just Trump saying this out loud is trouble for the Lai administration and cannon fodder for American skepticism here in Taiwan.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

@lnachman32.bsky.social
Upon #reading your profile, I tagged two of your #books 'Contested Taiwan' and 'Taiwan' for future reading. Tia!
#Booksky #Libby
#Politics
#Sociology
#Taiwan

From Military Anthem to Safeguarding Democracy: ‘Save Your Own Country’ and the Transformation of Sovereignty and Nationalism in Taiwan This article examines how Taiwan's contested sovereignty is performed and articulated through the evolving meanings of the popular slogan ‘Save Your Own Country’ (SYOC). Originating as a military ant...

Sharing this super interesting article that examines the history of the slogan 自己的國家自己救 from its start as KMT propoganda slogan to a protest chant for the Sunflower Movement.

It is also one of the first articles to engage with my new book!

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....

The age of Takaichi dawns Understanding what happened on Sunday

My first attempt to make sense of a truly historic general election.

open.substack.com/pub/observin...

My basic Bad Bunny take is that Puerto Rico should have meaningful congressional representation and the right to vote for the US President 🐰

Solidarity to the incredible journalists at WaPo who lost their jobs today, many of whom have been trusted friends and colleagues for years.

Taiwan-U.S. ties are 'rock solid,' its president says, after Xi warns Trump on arms sales In a call with President Donald Trump, Chinese leader Xi Jinping stressed his country’s claims to the island democracy, suggesting it could become a bigger issue in U.S.-China relations.

I’m quoted in @nbcnews.com discussing the implications of Trump and Xi’s recent comments on Taiwan.

www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/t...

I am thrilled to share our newest peer-reviewed work, "Feeling Blue: Public Support for Taiwan’s Bluebird Movement and Legislative Reform" with @poscwty1.bsky.social & Hannah June Kim, out now at China Quarterly!

A🧵on Taiwanese public opinion & independent voters:
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Tl;dr:

Independent voters were more likely to side with the KMT/TPP over support for the 2024 reforms and protests.

But, independent voters have different feelings towards democratic practices than the KMT/TPP.

The TPP, meanwhile show real undemocratic populist potential.

All our findings, tables, methods, and further discussion are in the article. We hope all those who follow Taiwan politics find it helpful. END.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

While we plan to conduct follow up surveys soon to ask about everything that has been happening in recent months, our work on the 2024 happenings indicates that Lai and the DPP may have an uphill battle at winning over independent voters in both 2026 and 2028.

What do our findings have to say about Taiwan's various domestic crises today?

Whether it’s the constitutional court, budgetary issues, or the non-stop fighting in the Legislative Yuan, our findings indicate that independent voters may not be on Lai or the DPP's side.

TPP voters may embody a more anti-establishment voice within Taiwan’s electorate, setting them apart from supporters of the traditional political parties. Beyond the Bluebird movement, Taiwan may not be immune to the rise of the populist forces emerging in mature democracies.

One other finding raises a concern for the future of Taiwanese democracy. TPP supporters were significantly more likely to accept undemocratic practices across both waves. This suggests that those who support the TPP may pose challenges for the future health of Taiwan’s democracy.

Second, independent voters are meaningfully different from KMT–TPP supporters. At the height of the protests, data indicated that KMT/TPP supporters were more likely to accept undemocratic practices, but not independent voters, who had lower support for non-democratic practices.

We have two key findings:

First, independent voters in Taiwan are more closely aligned with the KMT regarding the Bluebird Movement and legislative reform. Data suggest that the KMT’s framing is more effective than the DPP’s framing at appealing to independent voters.

We conducted two waves of surveys asking about reforms, protests, court rulings, and a measure of support for democracy called "willingness to accept undemocratic practices"(sorry for the poli sci jargon, it mostly means how cool voters are when politicians do autocratic stuff).

We know a lot about green and blue voters, but not those who do not identify with any political party. They are the largest voting bloc (up to 40%) and are the ones who decide elections. Understanding their political attitudes matters for both academics and policy makers alike.

The 2024 legislative reforms & Bluebird Movement were incredibly partisan. Such a hyper-partisan set of events was an important opportunity to study Taiwanese public opinion, especially independent voters. Why? Because we know very little about their politics.

I am thrilled to share our newest peer-reviewed work, "Feeling Blue: Public Support for Taiwan’s Bluebird Movement and Legislative Reform" with @poscwty1.bsky.social & Hannah June Kim, out now at China Quarterly!

A🧵on Taiwanese public opinion & independent voters:
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Speaking with some very thoughtful folks at @taiwanfcc.bsky.social next Monday about what chaos awaits Taiwan this next year:

ワークショップのご案内（Workshop Announcement: January 15, 13:10-） 国立台湾大学のLev Nachman助教授をお迎えし、“Contested Taiwan Sovereignty, Social Movements, and Party Formation” と題してワークショップを開催します。 どなたでもご参加いただけます。事前登録は不要です...

Waseda talk information:

www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/...

東海 talk information:

I'm going on tour in Tokyo!

Starting next week I'll be doing a series of book talks for my new book "Contested Taiwan" at three universities in Tokyo! All are open to the public! 会場でお会いできるのを楽しみにしています !