Sreedev Krishnakumar

Elections are only the first of Sanae Takaichi’s challenges | Number Theory The import of the victory notwithstanding, Takaichi’s government and Japan face tough policy choices. The charts below summarise this

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Elections are only the first of Sanae Takaichi’s challenges By Sreedev Krishnakumar Election results released on Sunday vindicated Japan’s prime minister Sanae Takaichi’s gamble to have snap polls in Japan. With a 75.7% seat share for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led alliance in the House of Representatives, her government will now have the biggest majority in Japan since the end of the second world war. The import of the victory notwithstanding, Takaichi’s government and Japan face tough policy choices. The charts below summarise this. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the next post in the thread to read it on the free HT news app)

Japan’s snap election gamble paid off for PM Sanae Takaichi, who now have the biggest majority in the lower house since World War 2. The import of the victory notwithstanding, Takaichi’s government and Japan face tough policy choices. Today's Number Theory breaks them down.

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Thank you!

An annotated version of India-US joint statement published in today's Hindustan Times. The full text with annotations is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the replies to read it on HT app.

Grab today's Hindustan Times to find an annotated version of the India-US joint statement putting specific key details in context. If you couldn't get your hands on a copy, we have also made an online interactive version of it that you can read from our app (link in replies).

Over the past decade, global finance has shifted beyond banks. “Shadow banking” has moved from the margins to the center of financial system. With buoyant markets and light oversight, old financial vulnerabilities may be building again. For HT, I did a deep dive in to this shift.

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Is focus on agri in US deal missing the woods for the tree(nut)s? By Sreedev Krishnakumar The details of the Indo-US trade deal are not known but expected soon. A lot of the political reactions in India have been about the potentially harmful impact of the deal on our farmers. This makes it worthwhile to look at the Indo-US trade in agriculture before the deal happened. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the next post in the thread to read it on the free HT app.)

Details of the Indo-US trade deal have still not been revealed to us. But much of the political reactions in India have been regarding its potential impact on the agricultural sector. This makes it worthwhile to look at the Indo-US trade in agriculture before the deal happened.

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Amid global churn, Budget faces 'external' challenge By Sreedev Krishnakumar If the 2026-27 Union Budget were not being presented in an external environment of unprecedented turbulence, the economic situation would have been very different. Today, the erstwhile hegemon of the rules-based-order is hell bent on destroying it -- and at a time when the world is bracing for a generational leap in technology thanks to Artificial Intelligence (AI) which, at least for now, seems to have taken financial markets beyond the realm of rational intelligence. As an economy which runs a current account deficit and is, therefore, dependent on capital flows and is looking to attract more FDI to boost manufacturing, economic policy making in India has no choice but to account for these challenges. Here is a brief description of what they are.

If Budget 2026 was being presented in calmer times, India’s economic choices would look very different. Instead, the rules-based global order is being dismantled, even as AI-fuelled optimism pushes global markets into irrational territory. We looked at the external-sector challenges faced by India.

Holy shit, this thread is incredible.

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Davos, amid threat of Trump avalanche, AI earthquake B Sreedev Krishnakumar and Roshan Kishore The World Economic Forum (WEF) is one of the most influential gatherings as far as global capitalism is concerned. The high and mighty of business and policy meet with each other in the backdrop of snow-covered Alps and often discuss what the future can hold. WEF’s glory days have been associated with the rise of globalisations and free markets. In fact, what is today the WEF used to be just a European gathering before the end of the Cold War. This year’s WEF meeting, however, is taking place in an environment which embodies anything but optimism and confidence. The biggest threat to the Davos sentiment, ironic as it sounds, comes from one of the biggest delegations this time, namely, US President Donald Trump's. What makes things even worse is that Trump is not the only instability as far as the global economy is concerned. Here are three charts which capture how the world has changed for the worse from the last Davos gathering. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the next post in the thread to read it on the free HT news app.)

Davos rose alongside a US-led era of globalisation and free markets. This year, the WEF meets in a far gloomier moment, as that order frays amid multiple global shocks, including from the US led by Trump. @roshankishore.bsky.social and I looked at how the world has changed since the last summit.

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Can ‘Donroe' be a geopolitical doctrine? By Sreedev Krishnakumar What the world saw as a callous act in the US abducting Venezuela’s President Nicholas Maduro, Donald Trump’s administration has tried to sell as the proof of a doctrine which will resurrect the US’s dominance in the Western Hemisphere. Trump’s supporters have popularised it as the “Donroe” doctrine which tries to marry Trump’s name with the 1823 Munroe Doctrine, which proclaimed US’s pre-eminence in the western hemisphere against what was then a stronger and dominant Europe. How credible are such claims? Here is what numbers tell us. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the next post in the thread to read it on the free Hindustan Times news app)

What many saw as a brazen abduction of Nicolas Maduro, Trump pitches as proof of revived US dominance in the Western Hemisphere, dubbing it the "Donroe Doctrine" in echo of the 1823 Monroe Doctrine. But does the world still fit Monroe’s assumptions? Here’s what the numbers say #Maduro #Donroe #Trump

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BJP cements its Maharashtra dominance By Abhishek Jha and Sreedev Krishnakumar The results of municipal corporation elections in Maharashtra have underlined the message which emerged from the 2024 assembly elections in the state. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is the clear political leader in the state and this holds even if it decides to sometimes be a little tough with its alliance partners . The Congress, on the other hand, appears to be headed on a path of implosion and political irrelevance in the state’s politics. Here are three charts which explain this argument in detail. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Click on the link in the next post in the thread to read it on the free Hindustan Times news app)

#Maharashtra municipal corporation polls reinforce what the 2024 assembly elections already showed: the #BJP is the state’s clear political pole, with room to pressure allies. INC, meanwhile, looks increasingly marginal in state politics. Today’s Number Theory unpacks the results
#Mumbai #India #BMC

Opinion | A.I. Is Real. But OpenAI Might Still Fail. Artificial intelligence’s promise is real. But some of the most prominent A.I. companies might not make it.

In @nytopinion.nytimes.com

“A.I.’s promise is real,” Sebastian Mallaby, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, writes. “The big question in 2026 is whether capital markets can adequately finance A.I.’s development.”

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What's at stake for the US in Federal Reserve vs Trump? By Roshan Kishore and Sreedev Krishnakumar The latest (hitherto unimaginable) headline from Donald Trump’s America is the head of the US central bank coming on camera to say that he has been threatened with a criminal investigation for refusing to compromise what has often been considered a bulwark of US’s economic leadership in the world – an autonomous central bank setting monetary policy (read interest rates). “This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation,”, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a video statement on Sunday. While Trump has made no secret of his liking for a lower intertest rate or a more pliable central bank leadership, what could have possibly driven the latest precipitation and what are the possible implications of a confrontation between the US government and monetary policy? Here are three things which offer some idea. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click the link on the next post in the thread to read it on the free Hindustan Times news app)

US Fed chief says he has been threatened with criminal action for not giving in to political pressure. With Trump pushing for lower rates, what set off this clash and what could it be implications for US monetary policy? @roshankishore.bsky.social and I delved in to this in today's HT Number Theory.

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World’s billionaire and millionaire cities By Sreedev Krishnakumar New York mayor Zohran Mamdani plans to tax the city’s super-rich to fund his promises. The mecca of capitalism isn’t the only global metropolis caught in the debate around taxes and the super-rich. The Labour government’s tax policies ave triggered similar debates in London. Do some cities have more super-rich people than others? Are low taxes key to attracting the super-rich? Here is a brief summary. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the next post in the thread to read it on the free Hindustan Times news app)

Zohran Mamdani, New York’s new mayor, wants to tax the super-rich to fund his policies. Similar debates on taxing the rich are playing out in cities across the world. Do some cities attract more of the ultra-rich than others? And are low taxes really the key? Today’s Number Theory explores this.

A bit opportunistic, but considering Trump's announcement that the US has captured Maduro, re-plugging this story of mine from last June looking at the history of US regime change operations and its aftermath for the countries involved.

Bitter harvest: The rise of bad loans in the agriculture sector A particular sector’s rising share of NPAs on its own need not cause a concern. It can very well be a result of an increase in credit to that particular sector.| India News

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Bitter harvest: The rise of bad loans in the agriculture sector By Roshan Kishore and Sreedev Krishnakumar New Delhi : The RBI released its biannual Financial Stability Report (FSR) on December 31. Data on bad loans, or non-performing assets (NPA), shows that bank balance sheets are healthier than they have ever been in the last decade, with gross NPAs as a share of total advances falling to just 2.2% in September 2025. However, there is one statistic in the FSR which should set off alarm bells for policy observers. Agriculture accounts for the highest share of bad loans and this share has been rising for quite some time now. A further examination also shows that agriculture’s share in bad loans is disproportionately larger than its overall share in bank credit in the country. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the next post to read it in full)

The RBI’s latest Financial Stability Report shows bank balance sheets at their healthiest in a decades. But one red flag stands out: agriculture now accounts for the largest share of bad loans, far exceeding its share in overall bank credit. We looked at the numbers in detail.

What will the markets bring in 2026 for India? By Sreedev Krishnakumar Global equity markets ended 2025 on a strong note, but the rally was uneven and driven by a narrow set of themes. India, despite solid economic growth and robust domestic participation, was one of the weakest performers among major markets. As 2026 begins, the question is whether easing global headwinds and improving earnings will help Indian equities regain lost ground. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the post to read it in full from the HT news app)

Global equities closed 2025 strong, but the rally was narrow and uneven. Moreover, India was among the weakest major markets. As 2026 begins, can easing global headwinds and better earnings help Indian equities recover? Today’s Number Theory explores this.

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The rise of AI: Boom, bubble or neither? By Sreedev Krishnakumar ‘Artificial Intelligence’ became an everyday phrase in 2025, with generative AI tools spreading rapidly across offices, classrooms and consumer products. That pace of adoption has been matched by extraordinary investor enthusiasm, driving funding, valuations and markets across the globe. The question now is whether this reflects the early stages of a durable technological shift, or a bout of exuberance running ahead of fundamentals. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the next post in the thread to read the full story on the free HT news app)

‘Artificial Intelligence’ went mainstream in 2025, as GenAI spread across offices, classrooms and consumer products. Investor enthusiasm surged alongside, boosting valuations and markets worldwide. Is this a durable tech shift, or a bubble waiting to burst? Today’s HT Number Theory examines this.

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Part 1 showed how energy demand is rising while also becoming more electric and renewable. In part 2, we show how that’s reshaping energy security. While fuel supply risks remain, the shift to clean power adds a new vulnerability: dependence on critical minerals whose refining is highly concentrated