Carl Allen

Many students (and teachers) believe that the margin of error is an abstract concept, true "in theory"

This is not the case.

It is a testable and provable one.

Statistics are not always intuitive, but when we can, educators must make these lessons tangible

I love doing these kinds of experiments

Timely quote

Remember when war plans were texted to a reporter?

In any other administration, this scandal would still be news

Based on actual events

The worldwide consensus of analysts on "poll error" are very wrong. And none of them can successfully argue otherwise

Coming soon to a journal near you. Happy to chat

@jrssa.bsky.social @oxfordacademic.bsky.social @aaas.org @royalstatsoc.bsky.social @warwickuni.bsky.social

Do you like science?

Fun fact:

The consensus of experts worldwide in are wrong about the answer to this basic question.

I think the fact that we're on the verge of a revolution in how polls are understood might be understated.

Want to chat about it?

@nprpatrick.bsky.social @jrssa.bsky.social

My wife says:

"Please buy Carl's book so I don't have to hear more about undecided voters and how stupid the f**king spread is"

Here is a 52 second "statement of significance" regarding my work, published in my book, coming soon to textbooks and journals.

Anything I'm wrong about here @tandfresearch.bsky.social @ropercenter.bsky.social @jrssa.bsky.social @pollsandvotes.bsky.social

If not - a lot of retractions to be made!

Poll:
Mansharamani: 21 (+4)
Williams: 17
Hamlen: 3
Undecided: 52

Result:
Williams: 36
Mansharamani: 27 (-9)
Hamlen: 16

The fact that "experts" will plug this 13-point "error" into their report for primary poll accuracy shows they have NO IDEA what they're doing

@aaas.org @ropercenter.bsky.social

Republicans hate immigrants more than pedophiles

Or maybe it was Tom Bonier

There have been so many, it's hard to say

I'm good at this

(It's for @gelliottmorris.com )

This spicy take is still very relevant

Imagine anyone on the left getting on stage, telling Trump and Vance to "suck on my machine gun" - to cheers.

Then, a few years later, say, @gavinnewsom.bsky.social invites them to the White House.

Shall we test this out, @teamtrump.bsky.social?

Or do you have something to say?

What do you think @aapor.bsky.social @amstatnews.bsky.social @jrssa.bsky.social @britpollingcouncil.bsky.social ?

Too on the nose or shall we chat?

My first year doing political data publicly, I went hard.

Not just House and Senate, but LEVERAGE of those races: A metric I co-opted from sports to incorporate BOTH win probability and impact on Congressional makeup

2024 - I was writing a book

You all ready for this to return in 2026-28?

Sneak peak @jrssa.bsky.social @aapor.bsky.social

I don't care if it gets me clicks right now, this chart remains one of my absolute favorite. And I'm not just saying that because I made it

By itself, it disproves a 100 year consensus for how Pre-Election polls are graded for accuracy. They all violate it.

That's cool AF. Science is cool AF.

I know South Park is going hard on Trump but Family Guy is just ruthless!

The America First people who wanted to cut the debt have blown up the debt by $1 trillion in 8 months

Used their own poor financial management skills as an excuse to cut cancer research and healthcare

But we got billions for Israel for genocide and now Argentina for a bailout

Nice

The Dictator admits that Kimmel's return was a major defeat for his authoritarian regime. It is clearly time to give him more defeats, the most defeats anyone's ever suffered. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

If they make fun of you, it's free speech, get over it snowflake.

If you make fun of them, you're a POS.

If you don't apologize, you're worse.

And if you do apologize, it's not sincere enough.

See, there's no amount of subservience that is sufficient for them.

That's their goal. Do not obey.

Some people have no standards

It's a bit ironic that the "prove me wrong" guy gave us the proof we needed to show people who claim to be "free speech absolutists" aren't even free speech believers at all.

The most common constructive criticism is that I need to be gentler with my words and approach. The most common unconstructive criticism is that I'm an ahole.

It reminded me of this meme

Case of projection

Approval from people who have been confidently wrong for a long time was never the goal.

Remember Kaepernick?

Republicans created this false narrative that he was "disrespecting the flag" or "the troops"

They KNOW they can't argue with what is TRUE, so they create a false story, and demand you disprove them - deflecting from what is true.

Sound familiar to anything going on now?

No bailouts for broke ass farmers

Get a job. Bootstraps

If you're soft on child traffickers, if you're soft on child molesters, then you're hard on little girls

Which looks to check out

#EpsteinFiles #EpsteinTrumpFiles #EpsteinTrumpCoverUp #Ghislaine

Everyone else:

The book published version:

The 2018 version: