peter

Decoding Owl Calls: Refining Occupancy Inference From Passive Acoustic Monitoring | doi.org/10.1002/ece3... | Ecology and Evolution | #ornithology #RaptorResearch 🪶

A clear autumn day, looking toward a snow-capped Mount Fuji. In the foreground, a slow-moving river flows past; on the opposite bank, a high wall conceals all but the upper floor of a traditional thatched-roof house. Nearby, trees and grasses are golden yellow with the turning season. Further on, Mount Fuji dominates the view, its snowy peak reflected in the river below.

Title: Deep Autumn (1979)

Artist: Kasamatsu Shiro

www.asahi.com/ajw/articles... #ShinHanga #SosakuHanga #Art #Showa #Autumn #KasamatsuShiro #Fuji #MtFuji #MountFuji #Japan

A low winter sun in a purple sky - in the foreground, teazles.

‘Winter Sun’ Paul Evans, ink & acrylic, 2020.
Part of our winter/Christmas card collection. This pack consists of four 125mm by 125mm cards & envelopes.
A donation from each sale goes to the housing charity Shelter.
www.rathergoodart.co.uk/product/paul...
#wintercollection #wintersun #winterart

Thank you to all of today's speakers for a really interesting array of talks! So much great research, and more on the way tomorrow! #IWSG2025 #waders #shorebirds #ornithology

Vergunningen voor spieringvisserij in de Waddenzee opnieuw geschorst Voorlopig geen spieringvisserij in Waddenzee.

De Raad van State heeft op verzoek van Vogelbescherming de nieuwe vergunningen die zijn verleend voor de spieringvisserij met sleepnetten in de Waddenzee geschorst tot uitspraak is gedaan in de lopende beroepsprocedure.

Lees het hier:

Images showing computers shrinking greatly over 25 years, phones shrinking greatly over 40 years, and cars getting much bigger over the last 40 years.

Innovation makes useful things smaller and smaller. Overconsumption makes things bigger and bigger (and more dangerous with bigger costs & consequences). Bigger vehicles and larger homes for fewer people is not progress. HT @fietsprofessor for graphic

Boerenzwaluwen trekken ver, en nog veel verder Boerenzwaluwen komen synchroon terug naar de stal.

Wist je dat boerenzwaluwen die elk jaar in dezelfde schuur broeden allemaal uit totaal verschillende overwinteringsgebieden komen? En toch komen ze jaarlijks op hetzelfde moment weer aan in die schuur 🤯 Dit kwamen onderzoekers te weten door het gebruik van 'geolocators'.

Meer over het onderzoek:

A full moon rises over Itsukushima Shrine, at Miyajima, Hiroshima. A solitary pilot steers a small open boat toward a waterside temple lit with hanging lanterns. Beyond, the famous 'floating' torii gate stands in Matsushima Bay, surrounded by water silvered by moonlight. Further on, low shadowy mountains cross the horizon. Above, the bright full moon shines through a break in the clouds, dominating a starless night sky.

Title: Summer Moon at Miyajima (1936)

Artist: Koitsu Tsuchiya

dive-hiroshima.com/en/feature/w... #ShinHanga #Art #Showa #KoitsuTsuchiya #Summer #Moon #FullMoon #BuckMoon #Miyajima #Itsukushima #Hiroshima #Japan

Which Kind of Science Reform What hope is there for science reform, if we can't agree on what to reform? Right now, principles are more important than practices.

How can we reform science? I have some ideas. But I am not sure you’ll like them, because they don’t promise much. elevanth.org/blog/2025/07...

The open access movement has been captured by the publishers, and the journal system is worse than ever. Suggestions like open review do nothing to make research or peer review better, nothing to break the bullshit of rewarding people for simply publishing, right or wrong.

Where is our courage?

Last weekend was exciting! Together with @gullbilledterns-de.bsky.social,‬ and thanks to the amazing teams at Druid & Interrex, we deployed the first gull-billed tern with a GPS. It returned to the nest after a quick preening session and for the last 3 days has shared its foraging sites with us.

An abandoned warehouse, dark and unused, slowly crumbling away under a starry night sky. A disused path of wooden duckboards passes through a covered opening, allowing us to see beyond toward another dark building standing next to a body of water; nearby, a small open boat has been pulled up on shore. Further on, the shadowy shapes of mountains cross the horizon.

Title: Ruins of Rice Warehouses, Karatsu (1922)

Artist: Hasui Kawase

www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/... #ShinHanga #Art #Taisho #HasuiKawase #Rice #Karatsu #Saga #Japan

Who is afraid of modelling time as a continuous variable? Most models of ecological and eco-evolutionary processes involve creating trajectories of something, be it population densities, average trait values, or environmental states, over time. This requ...

Totally missed this last year's paper: A great introduction to continuous-time modelling (deterministic & stochastic)!

A blog post screenshot

A blog post screenshot

A blog post screenshot

New blog post by Jan Linnenbrink: Spatial machine learning with caret 📍

Using `caret` to predict air temperature in Spain with spatial data, addressing autocorrelation and extrapolation with `blockCV` and `CAST`.

Read here: geocompx.org/post/2025/sm...

#rstats #SpatialML #rspatial

Sunset, looking toward Mount Fuji from a farm in Susono, Shizuoka. In the foreground, trees are bare, waiting for spring. A pair of farmhouses, one with a traditional thatched roof, have been closed up for the evening; warm light glows in their windows. Nearby, rectangular vegetable patches have been sown in tidy rows, but have yet to develop much. Beyond, forests and foothills lead toward a snow-capped Mount Fuji, still shining in a sky turned purple and pink with the setting sun.

Title: Mt Fuji from Susono (1952)

Artist: Ito Takahashi

www.japan-guide.com/ad/shizuoka-... #ShinHanga #Art #Showa #Spring #Satoyama #ItoTakahashi #MtFuji #MountFuji #Susono #Shizuoka #Japan

Warming stripes for deep ocean to upper stratosphere

The Warming Stripes have now been extended downwards into the ocean and upwards into the stratosphere!

Collaborative paper which tells the story of how the stripes were developed, and discusses their extension across the Earth system, is now available in BAMS: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

Cross-Validatory Model Selection for Bayesian Autoregressions with Exogenous Regressors Bayesian cross-validation (CV) is a popular method for predictive model assessment that is simple to implement and broadly applicable. A wide range of CV schemes is available for time series applications, including generic leave-one-out (LOO) and K-fold methods, as well as specialized approaches intended to deal with serial dependence such as leave-future-out (LFO), h-block, and hv-block. Existing large-sample results show that both specialized and generic methods are applicable to models of serially-dependent data. However, large sample consistency results overlook the impact of sampling variability on accuracy in finite samples. Moreover, the accuracy of a CV scheme depends on many aspects of the procedure. We show that poor design choices can lead to elevated rates of adverse selection. In this paper, we consider the problem of identifying the regression component of an important class of models of data with serial dependence, autoregressions of order p with q exogenous regressors (ARX(p,q)), under the logarithmic scoring rule. We show that when serial dependence is present, scores computed using the joint (multivariate) density have lower variance and better model selection accuracy than the popular pointwise estimator. In addition, we present a detailed case study of the special case of ARX models with fixed autoregressive structure and variance. For this class, we derive the finite-sample distribution of the CV estimators and the model selection statistic. We conclude with recommendations for practitioners.

We have previously shown in context of autoregressions with exogenous regressors that the use of joint log-score in cross-validation reduces the variance of the CV estimate leading to better efficiency in model comparison doi.org/10.1214/23-B..., and in the new paper we extend this to spatial models

A view looking up over green trees at a traditional thatched-roof cottage standing on tall stone foundations. Just behind the cottage, tall cherry trees are in full bloom, their branches packed with pink and white blossoms. Further on, a shadowy hillside rises into an overcast sky

Title: Mountain Cottage in Spring (c.1960s)

Artist: Kasamatsu Shiro

teamjapanese.com/spring-in-ja... #Art #ShinHanga #SosakuHanga #Showa #KasamatsuShiro #Spring #CherryBlossoms #Sakura #Japan

A view looking along a calm river, past a wooden bridge, and toward a Japanese-style castle standing on steep, angular stone foundations. On our right, a cherry tree overlooks the water, its branches packed with pink blossoms; above, the sky is clear and bright.

Title: Cherry Blossoms & Castle (c.1930s)

Artist: Ito Yuhan

www.japan-guide.com/e/e3050.html #Art #ShinHanga #ItoYuhan #Showa #Spring #Sakura #CherryBlossoms #Japan

Grafiek waarin te zien is hoe de radioruis van de zon afneemt tijdens een gedeeltelijke zonsverduistering.

We hebben vandaag de gedeeltelijke #zonsverduistering ook met de radiotelescoop waargenomen. De periode dat de radioruis van de zon afnam doordat de maan ervoor zat, was iets langer dan de optische eclips. Dat komt doordat de radiogolven van de zon ook uit de corona rondom de zon komen.

More Cape Verde Petrel mania off Fogo, Cape Verde, 22 Mar, with Projecto Vitó, Fogo. #seabirds

Common terns are assortatively mated with respect to their levels of #mercury #pollution, and transfer mercury to their eggs. Another amazing body of work from Justine's PhD thesis has turned into a paper. To be found in Environmental Research and open access: doi.org/10.1016/j.en...

www.beachexplorer.org/uploads/spec... looks quite like this one ...

probably common murre

A bright full moon shines in a starless night sky; below, mist collects around the trunks of tall leafless trees. Beyond, among the shadows of a distant forest, a handful of lights shine, presumably marking country houses.

Title: Winter Moon Over Toyama (1931)

Artist: Hasui Kawase

www.lemonde.fr/en/science/a... #ShinHanga #Art #Showa #HasuiKawase #Winter #FullMoon #Moon #Japan

A bird last seen by Darwin 190 years ago reappears on a Galápagos island The Galápagos rail, a small, black, ground bird, hadn’t been seen on Floreana Island in the Galápagos since 1835, when Charles Darwin first described it. That changed recently when researchers…

Amazing! No one had seen a Galápagos Rail on Floreana Island since Charles Darwin—until now. #ornithology

Evening, as blizzard conditions descend on a street in Shiobara, Japan. Layers of fresh snow cover the ground and the rooftops of the buildings. Warm lights glow in a few windows, but there is no other sign of human activity. The evening gloom and the wind-driven snow reduce the buildings to blocky silhouettes; there are shadowy hints of mountains in the distance beyond, but the details are obscured.

Title: Hataori in Shiobara (1946)

Artist: Hasui Kawase

www.asahi.com/ajw/articles... #ShinHanga #Art #Showa #Snow #Winter #Japan

A snowy evening at Tokyo's Honmon-ji Temple. Pedestrians carrying bamboo umbrellas over their heads walk up a track cleared in the snow by earlier foot traffic. On the left, a tall Japanese pine tree, its branches heavy with snow, grows by a wall running parallel to the path; up ahead, a small gate opens into the temple grounds. Beyond, tall trees are reduced to silhouettes in the evening gloom. Snow continues to fall across the scene.

Title: Honmon-ji Temple, Ikegami (1931)

Artist: Hasui Kawase

honmonji.jp/foreign/en.h... #ShinHanga #Art #Showa #HasuiKawase #Winter #Snow #Honmonji #Tokyo #Japan

A large black crow sits on a leafless, frosty tree branch; the bird seems to be looking out at the viewer with one yellow-rimmed eye, and is depicted in mid-caw, its beak wide open. Other thin branches droop around the bird, weighed down by frost. Beyond, the background is dim and indistinct.

Title: Screaming Crow (c.1912)

Artist: Ohara Koson

www.asahi.com/ajw/articles... #ShinHanga #Art #Taisho #Winter #Snow #Crow #Japan

A 19th Century Stormwrecked Black-Capped Petrel From Vermont Offers Insight Into Historical Vagrancy Processes | doi.org/10.1002/ece3... | Ecology and Evolution | #ornithology #seabirds 🪶