Karel Svoboda

Sorry, it is different Karel Svoboda🙂

Putin and Trump agreed on nothing, exactly as Putin needed. Trump blames Europe and Ukraine for the war that Putin started. Sanctions are postponed for a unit of time called "forever". Great victory for Vladimir Putin...

The Moscow Paradox: we are benefiting from the sanctions, but please, lift them!

Everything is great, according to a plan...

And unpleasant situation in railway transport:

The graph shows the current trend in Russian transport, switching from railway transport (next slide), which is in decline, to road vehicles. The intensified controls after the Sunday attacks may prolong the delivery times.

‼️ Russian Railways May 2025 Loading Update Thread

Things got worse…

2025-й кадр. Военной экономике России остро не хватает рабочих рук Рынок труда в России в условиях войны представляет собой парадоксальную картину: при рекордно низкой безработице и нехватке почти 2 млн работников только в обрабатывающей промышленности на предприятия...

The recent Russian anti-migration campaign has repercussions in the utilities sector. ZhKKh workforce, traditionally poorly paid and occupied by migrants from Central Asia, fell by 40%. This, together with an underinvestment, will cause inevitable accidents and failures. theins.ru/ekonomika/28...

Excellent thread on the Russian Economy..

Let’s talk about the Russian Economy!

I want to try give you an overview of some to the choices Russia has in some basic terms, and without pulling out too much reference material, so hopefully it will be easier to comprehend.

(So the opposite of usual, but you know how I love a reference)

Any suggestions for a good (better, excellent) book on AI, microchips, etc.? I already consulted AI itself, read Chris Miller's Chip Wars. It can be geopolitics/economics, technical aspects, or simply anything understandable for a non-technical guy with an interest in these topics.

Russian weekly inflation - a tendency toward slowing, but fragile. Still, higher in 2025 since the beginning of the year than at the same period in 2024. rosstat.gov.ru/storage/medi...

Authoritarian economic soft power: the case of Russian and Chinese investments in Central Europe The paper deals with the economic soft power strategies of authoritarian countries in the Visegrad region: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. Based on the material of authoritarian ...

My most recent paper on the Authoritarian economic soft power - building a reputation of prosperous countries: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

On the other hand, I have to keep repeating that there are extremely smart people working at the CBR and the Ministry of Finance who are capable of keeping this ship afloat. So I'm curious to see what they do.

Otherwise, there is another solution favored by some analysts, namely freezing deposits. But I'm just adding that to complete the picture; it wouldn't be very popular. And now I'm just waiting to see what happens next.

Pensioners, police officers (yes, even them), doctors, basically civil servants... just the usual groups that will be squeezed a little more (pensions are only increasing by the official inflation rate, not the “pensioner” inflation rate, let alone the 1/3 increase in the average wage).

So probably cuts plus some new taxes (they raised income tax – progressive, profit tax from 20 to 25 percent, raised fines, etc.). So far, the biggest cuts have been in terms of nominal amounts, but real cuts may also come.

But even a strong ruble does not help much, because there is a lack of money in the budget, which has to be found somehow. The National Wealth Fund is roughly equal to the planned deficit, which may grow (and will grow).

of 145 or 155 percent). The “everything is fine” rhetoric that the CBR has been using to cool perceptions isn't really working. Even a weakening of the ruble (although imports are quite limited) is unlikely to be popular with the CBR, as it leads to inflation.

the new hit, now from Azerbaijan, with Luky sending a maximum of 100 kg to Dagestan). The recent frosts do not promise a bumper crop either. So there's a problem for the rate cuts (i.e., whether the CBR lowers the rate from 21 to 19 percent is practically irrelevant, much like Trump's tariffs

magic with statistics (See the last week of last year with its zero inflation (probably for the first time in history). Expectations are unpleasant - people expect prices to rise, so they spend. And you don't want that when there are limited supplies of goods on the market (potatoes are

(both figures are higher than last year at this time). The reason is probably a decline in some food prices (eggs, butter). And we tend to notice those prices a little more. That's also why perceived inflation is always higher than the official rate (and I'll skip over the Russian authorities'

This is my favorite statistic. Apparently, it's also a favorite of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR). Well, favorite. At the moment, we are seeing a rise in inflation expectations after a decline at the beginning of the year, while perceived inflation has fallen slightly

Два самолета авиакомпании S7 сломались в воздухе за сутки - Русская служба The Moscow Times

Not surprising, though. Importing spare parts through Gabon etc could keep the planes in the air, but cannot avoid such incidents. With the ms21 and ssj100 delays (if not a closure of the programs ať all), it will be more plentiful in the near future. www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/05/18/d...

The cost of ZhKCh (utilities) is rising well above official inflation, but it does not go to maintenance. Lifts became a problem, but by no means alone. Electricity - housing boom built on old transmission grids, unrepaired houses... The alarm is ticking, particularly in subnational budgets.

Дыру в бюджете главного угольного региона решили заткнуть деньгами Сбера и ВТБ - Русская служба The Moscow Times

Kuzbass is returning to financing through bank credits. It is regarded as expensive (23.4 percent a year). The providers are state banks Sberbank and VTB (notorious receiver of the state support). An instant solution that may create problems in the future. www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/05/12/d...