Adam Posen

We just launched Season 3 with an accompanying blog, a new feature of the podcast!

@adamposen.bsky.social
@piie.com

Listen to PIIE Insider LIVE wherever you get podcasts!

Definitely worth a listen to @mdebolle.com on @npr.org On point discussing the Argentina bailout by the US government @wbur.org @piie.com

www.wbur.org/onpoint/2025...

The real reason for the U.S.-Argentina bailout American taxpayers are bailing out Argentina to the tune of $20 billion. But what does the U.S. get out of it? And can it really fix Argentina’s economy?

I was a guest on NPR’s On Point today discussing the U.S.-Argentina bailout.

@piie.com
@adamposen.bsky.social

www.wbur.org/onpoint/2025...

YouTube video by Peterson Institute for International Economics Adam Posen on Trump policies: Lagged inflation, possible financial instability

@adamposen.bsky.social explains why some effects from Trump’s policies, like tariffs & deportations, are lagged & why he worries erosion of Fed independence plus the admin’s crypto policies could lead to financial instability.
Watch:

Adam Posen on the economy one year after the US election (Episode 11) Podcast Episode · PIIE Insider LIVE · 11/07/2025 · 32m

I appreciate @chinadailyusa.bsky.social 's accuracy and fairness in presenting my views in this article. Thanks to
Anjali Bhatt for the discussion leading to this on #piieinsiderlive from @piie.com
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a...

Scholar warns of 'weaponizing uncertainty' A year since his election victory, United States President Donald Trump's economic policies are fulfilling his campaign promises but are weaponizing uncertainty, exacerbating global economic divisions...

This is a good summary of my assessment of the Trump economic policies after one year, and what is to come.
There is a consistent thru line to the Trump program which was evident by Nov '24,but that does not make it a coherent policy nor reduces uncertainty.
global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202511/14/...

Adam Posen on the economy one year after the US election (Episode 11) Podcast Episode · PIIE Insider LIVE · 11/07/2025 · 32m

New podcast: me reflecting on US economic policies since the election, what we foresaw, what surprised, what the impact has been and will be.

Includes a warning about the seeds being sown for the next financial crisis by Trump's crypto and Fed policy combo.

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a...

Adam Posen on the economy one year after the US election It's been one year since the 2024 US presidential election—and since the launch of PIIE Insider LIVE. Anjali V. Bhatt, PIIE communications manager and research fellow welcomes back Adam Posen, PIIE pr...

NOVEMBER 7: It's been a year this week since the US presidential election...& one year of PIIE Insider LIVE!
@adamposen.bsky.social is coming back onto the podcast to discuss what's changed in the US & global economy.
Tune in live or subscribe wherever you get podcasts: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

Sorry, I have been away (in general and from BlueSky).
Please email me at posena@piie.com

Congress's role in the trade war: A bipartisan conversation with Senators Kaine and Paul The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosts a special event featuring Senators Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Rand Paul (R-KY) who discuss the complex legal, political, and constitutional issues fa...

Congress's role in the trade war: A bipartisan conversation with Senators Kaine and Paul
Live Today 5:45pm ET @piie.com
www.piie.com/events/2025/...

75% of Americans report soaring prices as Trump claims inflation ‘over’ Exclusive poll: Inflation remains a concern despite president’s pledge to reduce prices on ‘day one’

Yes, inflation from tariffs is happening.
Will inflation expectations stay low? Mebbe not
www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Surveying the new economic geography with Peterson Institute's Adam Posen YouTube video by AtlanticCouncil

Live webcast today 10:45 ET Surveying the new economic geography with @AdamPosen and @joshualipsky
Live at @IMFNews
Watch here!
www.youtube.com/live/kNiZYVd... via @YouTube

Can climate efforts create jobs? (Episode 20) Is it possible to pursue climate efforts, create jobs, and achieve social justice at the same time? That was the challenge that the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 was designed to meet. Ben Beachy (Gl...

If you'd like a break from doomerism, @mdebolle.com & I had a good time recording this new @piie.com podcast to explore potential paths forward for clean energy industrial policy.

We touched on IRA lessons learned, abundance, bottom-up policy design, & yes...bagels.
‎
www.piie.com/experts/podc...

Robust investment in the US in AI-related categories has more than compensated for softer investment elsewhere.

Find these charts & so many more, & watch the presentation here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

The New China Shock is on Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs) High and rising imports of low-skilled products from China Magnitude and pace of China shock much greater than for rich countries

China Shock 2.0 Exaggerated Implication: now impact for rich countries is mostly from Chinese high skilled esports Magnitude and pace of China Shock 2.0 significantly smaller than China Shock 1.0 China SHock 2.0 no longer macro-economic but sectoral/technological/security

Rather than worrying about the China Shock 2.0 in developed economies, we should be much more worried about the China Shock 1.0 in low- & middle-income countries, Arvind Subramanian says.

Find slides & watch the Global Economic Prospects event here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks The global economy is growing more strongly than expected this year, despite rising trade tensions and high uncertainty around US economic policy. Optimism about artificial intelligence (AI), particul...

Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks - New blog by Karen Dynan
Latest global economic propsects from @piie.com

www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged Adam S. Posen explains at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Global Economic Prospects Fall 2025 event the effects of US policies like tariffs and deportations on inflation, the labor ...

Must see TV: PIIE’s Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged www.piie.com/newsroom/sho...

US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart Average US tariffs on Chinese exports now stand at 57.6 percent and cover 100 percent of all goods. China's average tariffs on US exports are at 32.6 percent and cover 100 percent of all goods. US tar...

US-China tariffs: where do they currently stand?

- US average tariff on imports from China: 57.6%
- China average tariff on imports from US: 32.6%

Note: We have been updating this chart since September 2019

Most large, advanced economies face slower GDP growth next year, while China and India withstand tariff drag

Our Fall 2025 Global Economic Prospects shows that real global GDP is projected to rise 3.1% in 2025 & 2.9% in 2026. #PIIECharts

PIIE Fall Meetings Coming up in October 2025 | Watching at piie.com/events -- October 8 | 1:00 PM EDT China’s economic outlook: Challenges and opportunities Martin Chorzempa (PIIE), Tianlei Huang (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Yeling Tan (PIIE) -- October 9 | 1:00 PM EDT Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2025 Karen Dynan (PIIE), Arvind Subramanian (PIIE), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) -- October 14 | 3:00 PM EDT PIIE Insider LIVE: Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE) -- October 15 | 9:00 AM EDT Trade Winds: How is the world adjusting to a new trading landscape? Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Mari Elka Pangestu (National Economic Council; PIIE), Hector Torres (Centre for International Governance Innovation) -- October 16 9:00 AM EDT The changing dollar regime: An update Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE), Moritz Schularick (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) 1:30 PM EDT Canada’s economic outlook and global trade: A conversation with Governor Tiff Macklem Tiff Macklem (Bank of Canada), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) -- October 17 | 1:00 PM EDT Europe in a changing international monetary system Agnès Bénassy-Quéré (Banque de France), Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE), Klaas Knot (De Nederlandsche Bank; Financial Stability Board), Signe Krogstrup (Danmarks Nationalbank), Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland), Ángel Ubide (Citadel LLC)

🍂 It's fall meetings szn 🍂
We hope you can join us this week & next! Find all event pages, info, & registration here: www.piie.com/event-series...

Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system Maurice Obstfeld, PIIE C. Fred Bergsten senior fellow, joins Anjali V. Bhatt, PIIE communications manager and research fellow, for a live, virtual conversation about tariffs in the US as fiscal policy...

New podcast @piie.com

Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system - discussing everything as only he can

With @anjali.v.bhatt #piieinsider

www.piie.com/events/2025/...

Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose Beijing has escalation dominance in the U.S.-Chinese tariff fight.

In a large-scale trade war with China, the U.S. economy will suffer more than the Chinese economy, argued
@adamposen.bsky.social
:“The Trump administration may think it’s acting tough,but it’s in fact putting the US economy at the mercy of Chinese escalation"
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

YouTube video by Peterson Institute for International Economics Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged

WATCH: @adamposen.bsky.social explains why the substantial inflationary impact from tariffs & deportations has been lagged but is coming.

This was short and informative. Definitely worth a listen.

Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose Beijing has escalation dominance in the U.S.-Chinese tariff fight.

Trump and Xi are both posturing ahead of their upcoming summit, but PRC/Xi is escalating - as noted by @rushdoshi.bsky.social and Lingling Wei this is because they think (rightly) Trump will back off.
*Taps the sign* (I warned y'all @foreignaffairs.com )
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Tariffs, deportations: inflation’s delayed hit. #econsky

Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged Adam S. Posen explains at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Global Economic Prospects Fall 2025 event the effects of US policies like tariffs and deportations on inflation, the labor ...

New video! Why the substantial inflationary impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged but is coming
A real world based take on the US economic forecast
Me excerpted from @piie.com Global Economic Prospects
www.piie.com/newsroom/sho...

Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged Adam S. Posen explains at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Global Economic Prospects Fall 2025 event the effects of US policies like tariffs and deportations on inflation, the labor ...

New video! Why the substantial inflationary impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged but is coming
A real world based take on the US economic forecast
Me excerpted from @piie.com Global Economic Prospects
www.piie.com/newsroom/sho...