Adam Posen

Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide President Donald Trump has started his second term in office with momentous plans to change US trade policy to achieve various economic and nontrade related aims. Below is a timeline that tracks the d...

Another trade war timeline update!

Bookmark this page so you always have it handy:

The origins of the US trade deficit and the futility of tariffs The most persistent driver of America's unsustainably large trade deficit is foreign investment in the United States, not other countries' trade barriers. If President Donald Trump manages to shrink t...

The most persistent driver of America's unsustainably large trade deficit is foreign investment in the US, not other countries' trade barriers. If Trump shrinks the trade deficit, it will be because he drove away foreign investment & slowed US economic growth.

The latest on Middle East economies: Syria, oil markets, and more Anjali V. Bhatt, PIIE communications manager and research fellow, and Adnan Mazarei, PIIE nonresident senior fellow and a former deputy director at the International Monetary Fund, hold a live, virtua...

ICYMI: Adnan Mazarei joined PIIE Insider LIVE to explain what it will take to rebuild Syria's economy, what's going on with oil markets in the Middle East, & more.

Watch here or listen wherever you get your podcasts:

Thanks, working on it now

Trump’s case against Fed chair Powell US President Donald Trump doesn’t like Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell. What he plans to do about it is an open question.

LISTEN: "It’s about the future of the institution [of the Fed], the future of inflation & monetary policy in the US. And it’s not about Jay [Powell], it’s about the institution."

@adamposen.bsky.social joined @financialtimes.com to discuss Fed independence, interest rates, & more:

🧵
Der US-Ökonom Adam Posen (PIIE) erläutert im Spiegel Interview Donald Trump's aktuelle Zoll-Politik.

@adamposen.bsky.social:
"Das wahre Problem liegt nicht in der [Zoll] Höhe. Die eigentliche Schwierigkeit ist doch, dass es kein stabiler Zustand sein wird."

1/7
www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/a...

Trump’s case against Fed chair Powell US President Donald Trump doesn’t like Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell. What he plans to do about it is an open question.

New Podcast with @financialtimes.com on central bank independence
Trump’s case against Fed chair Powell - it's no good on.ft.com/4kT5MzT

YouTube video by Bloomberg Television Bloomberg Surveillance 7/22/2025

WATCH: @adamposen.bsky.social argues the whole point of Fed independence is that the chair of the Federal Reserve & Federal Open Market Committee make decisions through expert debate without politics.

(S+) Adam Posen zum EU-Zollstreit mit Donald Trump: »Amerika ist der größere Verlierer. Eindeutig« Bis zum 1. August muss sich Europa mit Donald Trump im Handelsstreit einigen. Der Ökonom Adam Posen erklärt, was 15 Prozent Basiszoll bedeuten würden. Und warum er auf eine große Wirtschaftskrise in d...

New in @spiegel.de

www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/a...

Talking With Adam Posen A monetary policy maven about a Fed unde pressure

Interesting, nuanced chat between @pkrugman.bsky.social and @adamposen.bsky.social . Beyond a semi-professional interest in economics, it's always fun and educational to read good faith articulated experts discussing their field, almost regardless of what that field is.

Policy for the Planet: Higher temperatures are fueling the rise in bird flu (Episode 14) An outbreak of bird flu in the United States and Canada is ravaging chicken flocks and driving up egg prices. What’s causing the spread? Dr. Shayan Sharif (University of Guelph) joins to explain why c...

An outbreak of bird flu in the US and Canada is ravaging chicken flocks and driving up egg prices. What’s causing the spread? Dr. Shayan Sharif (University of Guelph) joins to discuss this multifaceted global health threat.

policyfortheplanet.com/higher-tempe...

@piie.com
@adamposen.bsky.social

YouTube video by CNBC International Live We have not seen anything like Trump's tariff policy in modern US history, says PIIE's Adam Posen

@adamposen.bsky.social tells @cnbc.com we have not seen in modern history anything like Trump's tariffs—the closest analogy is Brexit, in terms of ongoing heightened uncertainty & lower investment growth.
Watch:

Former EU Trade Comissioner: Member States Divided on Tariff Retaliation "I'm not very optimistic - I think there will be a very small deal, kind of like the one the UK got," says Cecilia Malmström, EU Trade Commissioner from 2014 to 2019, as trade negotiations between Bru...

Great discussion of EU response to US tariffs by @ceciliamalmstrom.bsky.social of @piie.com on @bloomberg.com

www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...

THIS is spiritual leadership.

I would like statements from Jewish leaders wrt Jews & non-Jewish employees of Jewish orgs at risk of ICE w/similar thoughtfulness.

I would also like to see clear language stating that all Jewish spaces are regarded as sanctuary from ICE now.

Never again is now.

The US trade deficit and foreign borrowing: How long can it continue? The United States has run significant external deficits for half a century and the associated net international liabilities have been growing, especially recently. Yet, in contrast to earlier periods ...

My latest with Tam Bayoumi on the real causes of the US trade deficit (not foreign tariffs or barriers) and why it is not sustainable. www.piie.com/publications...

Thank you @jeffrathke.bsky.social !

If you care about the global economy, there are few better ways to spend 10 minutes than watching this @adamposen.bsky.social interview

We have not seen anything like Trump's tariff policy in modern US history, says PIIE's Adam Posen Adam Posen from the Peterson Institute for International Economics discusses U.S. trade imbalances and explains why he does not see much harm from them. He also says Washington's move to slap levies o...

We have not seen anything like Trump's tariff policy in modern US history - and for good reason says @piie.com 's @adamposen.bsky.social On @cnbc.com
cnb.cx/44DKsbw

Hear hear! Well done @scottlincicome.bsky.social and Cato colleagues

A big shout-out to the Cato trade people, some of the very few “libertarians” who didn’t turn out to be authoritarians and/or Republican loyalists in disguise. 👏👏👏

About to appear live at 9a SGT on @cnbc.com #SquawkBoxAsia
Looking forward to talking with @MartinSoong about Asian prospects given US tariffs and the world around us

Posen Says Tariffs 'Already Hitting' US Auto Industry Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, discusses US inflation expectations with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua in Sintra, Portugal. "These tariffs are already hittin...

Tariffs, anti-migration, tax cuts and inflation, dammit! Okay, for @bloomberg.com I put on a shirt and tie. Curtain raiser (ie, first guest of Francine Lacqua's live coverage) in Sintra for ECB today.

www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...

Have you heard of the Global Seed Vault? How concerned should you be about food security?

I spoke to Cary Fowler about these issues on Policy for the Planet, Episode 13. Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts:

@piie.com
@adamposen.bsky.social

policyfortheplanet.com/how-frozen-s...

Why oil markets shrugged at the US bombing of Iran What if I told you the United States would bomb Iran and oil markets would (mostly) shrug?

Why oil markets shrugged at the US bombing of Iran
New take on the changing structure of energy supply and its economic implications
By @cullenhendrix.bsky.social of @piie.com
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Three ways the big budget bill fails Americans In the first hours of July, the US Senate passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (henceforth OBBB). The legislation’s title, as well as its contents, are deeply misleading. While the legislation is imp...

Three ways the big budget bill fails Americans
Pulling it together analytically @kclausing.bsky.social @piie.com
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Andrew Crockett Memorial Lecture Lecture by Maurice Obstfeld on the occasion of the Bank's Annual General Meeting, Basel, 29 June 2025.

Important and fantastic from M Obstfeld @piie.com on
how the dollar is being de-centered and markets are being shifted by Trump Administration policies
Must read Crockett Lecture at @BIS_org www.bis.org/events/agm20...

Posen Says Tariffs 'Already Hitting' US Auto Industry Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, discusses US inflation expectations with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua in Sintra, Portugal. "These tariffs are already hittin...

Tariffs, anti-migration, tax cuts and inflation, dammit! Okay, for @bloomberg.com I put on a shirt and tie. Curtain raiser (ie, first guest of Francine Lacqua's live coverage) in Sintra for ECB today.

www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...

The Argentina-IMF saga's new season The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently approved Argentina’s 23rd loan program since 1958.

NOW: Maurice Obstfeld moderates presentations & discussion with Alejandro Werner, Carmen Reinhart, & José De Gregorio on the IMF's 23rd loan program to Argentina since 1958, the future of the Argentine economy, & more.
Watch: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

Russia’s economy boomed after the invasion of Ukraine—it’s now running out of steam Record-low unemployment and ultra-hot inflation have put Russia “on the brink” of a recession, its economy minister said.

Russia’s military spending bubble has created what Elina Ribakova, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, describes as a game of musical chairs. https://trib.al/oiqiwya

Trump's tariffs damage the US economy more if they drive investors away from American assets When President Donald Trump announced a sweeping set of tariff increases on April 2, he predicted that date would be remembered as "the day that we began to make America wealthy again." Global investo...

New research shows that the effects of the "Liberation Day" tariffs if they go into effect—higher inflation, lower GDP—would significantly worsen with capital flight.