Jake Rubinstein

A Diddler on the roof. Sounds crazy, no?

But here, in our little island of Epstein you might say every one of us is a Diddler

I'm guessing someone on election Twitter had done this already, though I haven't seen it.

I'm planning to do a bunch more analysis but want to do it in a coherent way, not as random tweets

Oh, this is great stuff. I'm glad to see it. I missed it when it came out.

Yours had the batch elimination, mind does not. But yeah, I did miss yours

After I'm done with my writeup, I'd be happy to work with you all to answer anything specific though!

BOE published the raw CVR on their site this afternoon.

I'm undecided if I'm broadly sharing my cleaned version, but definitely won't until I've written the longer piece I'm planning.

But there isn't a technical reason you couldn't run something like that.

After I'm done with my writeup, I can probably make my cleaned CVR available for something like this, even if I don't just post the whole file for anyone to use.

Yeah, saving that for my longer write up!

Yeah the CVR was posted at like 5. It's a pain to work with. Only reason I was so quick is I did it in 2021 and the spec didn't change

vote.nyc/page/electio...

@xkonstantinidis.bsky.social would you believe all the processing code for this is in stata 😂

There is a lot more analysis to come and I'm planning to write a longer form article examining the CVR.

H/T to @benjrosenblatt.bsky.social
for his geography data which is vital create a comprehensive CVR.

3) Ramos's Cuomo endorsement didn't help much, Mamdani received 13% of the transfers to Cuomo's 16%. 29% of Ramos transfers where exhausted.

4) Lander(!) was the largest beneficiary when Adams was eliminated, getting 31% of the transfers.

2) DREAM worked, when Lander was eliminated in round 11, more votes were exhausted than transferred to Cuomo.

Mamdani received 56% of Lander's transfers, 23% were exhausted, and 21% went to Cuomo.

🧵 The data you have all been waiting for!

The NYC mayoral primary WITHOUT batch elimination (and some early analysis)

1) Zohran's first round (469,642) would have been enough to win against Cuomo's final round (443,229)

Okay, I've got some questions about the region definitions in the new Suffolk Boston Mayoral Poll

Just about 20k of them

No, there were only about 13k Wiley only voters.

More so that Wiley voters ranked other folks who had already been eliminated (e.g. Stringer, Morales, and Donovan)

At the moment no, because I'm in the middle of reworking my code to prep for 2025. But NYCCFB reports there were about 125k bullet voters for mayor and about half of those were for Adams

This is an older table I ran on most common ballots which is also helpful context here.

okay, fair, that is less boring than I was imagining

Non RCV races would be boring as hell

Did you ever wonder what the 2021 NYC mayoral looked like as a Sankey Diagram?

Well, wait no longer

Turns out this data was revised by the NYT.

Turns out NYT revised this data substantially. Deleting

Graph editing done in GIMP, so its a rough visualization, but the point easily holds.

I know I spelled deficit wrong, I'm not fixing it.

This points us to what makes this NYC race unique. We didn't actually see an across the board surge. We saw a very specific demographic 18-34, more than triple their votes cast, while we saw a net decrease from voters 50+ (and likely net decrease at 40+ too)

I tried to think where I might have seen a similar pattern and know I have data. Only example I thought of is Obama 08 in GA.

We saw Black turnout surge more traditionally, white turnout was also up, but Black surged more.

But Black share of the electorate was only up 5pp

The reason Cuomo and Generic White finance guy keep going after the Israel thing is because it is likely their only play for actually harming Mamdani.

It's cynical politics at its worst and it's why voters distrust politicians so damn much.

The reason Cuomo and Generic White finance guy keep going after the Israel thing is because it is likely their only play for actually harming Mamdani.

It's cynical politics at its worst and it's why voters distrust politicians so damn much.

And before you go there, i have worked on multiple races in NYC, including a mayoral.

I understand why it is happening, doesn't change how disgusted I am by it.

As a Jew and a political operative, it's really fucking disgusting to watch Israel be a topic in the NYC mayors race.

If we learned anything in 2024 it's that voter were laser focused on the economy.

Any time you spend talking about Israel in this race is an insult to voters and tokenizing to jews