Valuations

Anyone else noticing the IG algo suddenly feeling closer to Xitter?

Maybe my own engagement shifting but suddenly getting served a bunch of unhinged conspiracy vids. Feels like the “Facebook files” was only yesterday and already full circle.

Closed all my puts yesterday and covered most single name shorts. Hoping to see vol come down so I can put them back in place.

1H sees a big fiscal stimmy from OBBB taxes breaks, but going into 2H unhedged is crazy.

a man in a yellow suit is carrying a black box ALT: a man in a yellow suit is carrying a black box

Ok I know I’m officially having too much fun this week because I just bought a $MSTR flier.

The perfect follow up to bidding TWTR at $44B right as the market topped in Jan 22.

Seems like a low bar for $AMZN tonight. Just don’t guide capex above estimates and it’s green. Retail probably humming.

a man in a black jacket is asking who am i . ALT: a man in a black jacket is asking who am i .

Oh god… I think I’m a SaaS bull.

Probably a lot of dip buyers waiting to pounce but if OpenAI really pops then it may cause some forced selling across the entire complex and set up a nice entry.

Tough one. I spent an afternoon on it and decided it’s too hard. Feels like they’re at a really unappealing spot in the value chain and will always lose their best clients as they grow. Runoff of the yellow pages makes the true SaaS growth hard to model. Worried it’s a value trap, but very cheap.

And I get no one cares when the stock swing higher but SBC being 80% of FCF with insiders relentlessly dumping is pretty hard to swallow.

“Jira is a powerful project management and issue-tracking tool designed to help teams plan, assign, track, and report on work. Primarily used for Agile software development, it uses boards to visualize workflows (e.g., Kanban or Scrum) to monitor progress, manage bugs, and speed up project delivery”

This makes me want to bottom fish software but then I spend an hour reading about the specific products and still have no idea what most of them even do.

🎵Hello darkness my old friend🎵

"Dan Ives is an analyst - and a whole lot more."

Based on his fit he's also lead singer in a Smash Mouth cover band, and was formerly the Executive VP of Investor Relations at SNCR where he was charged with securities fraud and settled. www.sec.gov/files/litiga...

"Should You Trust Him?"

NGL. the chance to short Tesla, SpaceX and MechaHitler all under one wrapper sounds like a dream come true.

20 years from now, I’d be surprised if there’s still one Tesla on the road. They’ll be like the vintage Volkswagen beetles that only eccentrics and collectors own.

There were so many “I’m writing in Mitt Romney” finance guys in 2024 who made false equivalencies about how bad both candidates were and I’m more disillusioned by them than the MAGA cult.

Fulton county raided and these assholes couldn’t tell who was the worse candidate after Jan 6th?

This would be an adorable SNL sketch in an alternate universe but unfortunately we live in the darkest possible timeline.

MAGA thinks Democrats opened borders and set up sanctuary cities, to inflate votes, so they send an untrained clown force to LARP Call of Duty, who then kill two US citizens and shit on the constitution so badly a blue wave in midterms nearly guaranteed?

That about cover it?

$SBUX comps.

“…an early-stage, Hong Kong-based bioscience company with no revenue”

We all know what $RGC is. There’s no reason this should be listed on a US exchange

It’s finally elimination week on Celebrity Apprentice.

Debasement trade, de-dollarization, and sell US / buy EM takes are all going to age like milk.

No ill will toward gold bugs, but they were right for the wrong reasons. Schiff et al were screaming about QE induced inflation a decade plus before it happened and it required a global catastrophe + supply chain shocks + absurd amounts of fiscal stimulus to make it happen.

Interesting feedback loop w/ Trump 2.0 surrounded only by toadies and sycophants who feed his worst inclinations vs the John Kelly’s of his first term who reined him in.

I used to think Trump had a nose for politically unpopular decisions. I’m not sure he’s even aware how badly they’re crashing now

Absolutely. They swear an oath to the constitution. But that test is coming in the near future I’m sure.

It’s time to stop pointing out all the hypocrisy in the Republican Party. They simply do not care and pointing it out will not make them care.

Energy is better spent trying to make Democrats better. They’ve been extremely pathetic. There’s a leadership vacuum that got us here in need of repair.

They’ve been told they have full immunity and nearly unlimited funds. Is it going to get better or worse?

Booz Allen Hamilton - Uncivilized Booz Allen Hamilton’s stock has been crushed. Down 32% year-to-date and 55% from all-time highs as a result of the most dramatic federal government restructuring in our lifetime.

Link to my $BAH write up in Nov:

open.substack.com/pub/valuatio...

-“Green shoots” in Civil, 10% growth in pipeline reflects future bidding opportunities

-TTM book-bill ratio down to 1.1x

Mgmt notes procurement enviro feels like an inflection. If Civil bottomed then the stock likely has too. I’m just not confident and think today’s move is positioning related.