Valuations

Twitter: get force fed content from literal nazis

Bluesky: get called a Nazi for innocuous statements.

I figured he just wanted a distraction to take eyeballs away from the Bloomberg FSD piece.

For me at least it’s just network effect. Even as the experience has gotten much worse I can’t seem to recreate the value anywhere else.

Restaurants have been resilient??

GET EM!!!

FWIW I think cocoa prices have peaked. Climate induced shortage was squeezed by speculators. Still some structural issues and underinvestment by farmers will take years to normalize, but like all commodities the cure for higher prices is higher prices. Input costs will become a tailwind.

Renewables?

AI is cool but coffee and cocoa just hit 50 year highs right as a miracle weight loss drug became widely available after CPG staples used post-covid inflation as a smokescreen to take price above the inflation rate to boost margins and hit a ceiling leading to weak comps in ‘24.

Why does the real economy need lower interest rates?

Or in the case of HSY, again high quality brand and product and we know commodity squeeze will unwind and probably lead to a glut then suddenly input costs are a tailwind, so wait until it turns and maybe you’re too late?

Feel like it depends on the situation, no? Brand value hasn’t been tarnished, plug in 4-5% growth and 13-14% operating margin and it’s not a bad price knowing buyers will show up and rerate at the first sing of improvement based on historic multiples that were too high to begin with.

The water is warm.

But Musk is no dummy, and may adjust course to cater to Trump’s ego. Also substantial risk that some shitco OEM will license FSD for the halo effect. TSLA would pump another 30-50% in a week on that news.

That being said, TSLA probably a good short here after the massive gamma squeeze, raised estimates that look questionable at best, and high probability of relationship w/ Trump going off the rails in <6 months.

bsky.app/profile/bloo...

If you have to choose, you definitely want the latter b/c he’ll preserve the brand premium and Nike is too juicy to ignore shareholders for long. Will have Acktivist-man and a handful of others breathing down their neck in due time if they can’t right the ship.

Party City is a good reminder that the most tempting shorts like PLTR and TSLA (bubble valuations managed by pricks, but high growth and no debt) are generally not great shorts, and the best shorts are overlevered retailers w/ high fixed costs and declining revenue.

Fake

A lot of team transitory has migrated to Bluesky but I will refrain from trolling them because this is a peaceful place.

Beginning of the end for the bromance.

And GDP grew only 2-3% his first term if you don’t include Covid shock, and that was without the massive deficit that needs to be managed. Definitely a glass is half full expectation right now.

New England. Small mom and pop. Had some amazing food so I shouldn’t complain but the croissant was a dinner roll.

There’s definitely opportunity in the sector, I’m hesitant to buy pharma as a generalist because it requires a lot of domain expertise. I’m long some services providers and tech.

Got long a bunch of health care today and was having some indigestion about it midday wondering if I’m underestimating possible reform… then I remembered Dr. Oz is going to be head of CMS. 😂

Currently eating a croissant from a British bakery.

Question: what the fuck??

Haha that’s fair. And estimates need to get revised lower. Mgmt said flat out they’re not well hedged for 2025 and about to take it on the chin. That said I’d back up the truck if it sees $150 or lower.

Wouldn’t be shocked by <$6, but think the market will mostly look through it. Probably easier to wait for cuts, but assuming everyone is going to normalize COGS and it’ll trade higher when the cocoa squeeze abates. This market is so weird maybe it gets puked, but I’d be happy to buy more if it does.

Put 2/3 of $HSY back on, will put the rest on at $170 if we see it again. Near term earnings risk with cocoa back to recent highs but undemanding valuation, defensive long/high quality and new info: credible buyer was willing to take them out at a substantial premium to today’s price.

Maybe I’m jaded from 2021 but feel like we need a brief pullback and blow off top with something equivalent to SPACs and NFTs in 2025. Stocks are very expensive and sentiment is extreme but still doesn’t feel like peak stupidity yet.

I think it will have a nice positive return within five years without a doubt but could balloon another 100% for no reason at all over the next 12 months. Memes are fun.

I will never tire of CMTs and Macro dorks pointing to some meaningless N=1 data point to make a vague forecast for the next year that inevitably always implies further upside.

(The market usually goes up).