Valuations

Twitter: get force fed content from literal nazis

Bluesky: get called a Nazi for innocuous statements.

I figured he just wanted a distraction to take eyeballs away from the Bloomberg FSD piece.

For me at least it’s just network effect. Even as the experience has gotten much worse I can’t seem to recreate the value anywhere else.

Restaurants have been resilient??

GET EM!!!

FWIW I think cocoa prices have peaked. Climate induced shortage was squeezed by speculators. Still some structural issues and underinvestment by farmers will take years to normalize, but like all commodities the cure for higher prices is higher prices. Input costs will become a tailwind.

And the literal nazis that are celebrating all of this are probably just the fringe of the party. The water is just a little warmer than it was yesterday. Certainly not boiling anytime soon.

It’s all in your head.

Probably wasn’t a nazi salute.

And the hat he wore at the MSG rally probably wasn’t a callback to nazi font.

And the rally itself probably wasn’t paying homage to the MSG nazi rally.

And “America First” probably isn’t a reference to nazi sympathizers that used the same phrase.

All in your head.

Such a perfect microcosm of his empire. If it were any other CEO would be a no brainer short, but TSLA is the ultimate risk on sardine and he’s clearly hired very talented people at his companies to steal credit from.

Renewables?

AI is cool but coffee and cocoa just hit 50 year highs right as a miracle weight loss drug became widely available after CPG staples used post-covid inflation as a smokescreen to take price above the inflation rate to boost margins and hit a ceiling leading to weak comps in ‘24.

I don’t have a lot of conviction about the path for the market in 2025, but the one thing I feel strongly about is fading the 10 yr if it touches 5% again. Think you could probably short SPY, QQQ, ARKK, and get long levered small cap value in tandem.

Why does the real economy need lower interest rates?

Of course there’s always been corruption in politics, but it’s hard to wrap my head around the implications of anyone being free to openly bribe the president via public markets.

Or in the case of HSY, again high quality brand and product and we know commodity squeeze will unwind and probably lead to a glut then suddenly input costs are a tailwind, so wait until it turns and maybe you’re too late?

Feel like it depends on the situation, no? Brand value hasn’t been tarnished, plug in 4-5% growth and 13-14% operating margin and it’s not a bad price knowing buyers will show up and rerate at the first sing of improvement based on historic multiples that were too high to begin with.

The water is warm.

But Musk is no dummy, and may adjust course to cater to Trump’s ego. Also substantial risk that some shitco OEM will license FSD for the halo effect. TSLA would pump another 30-50% in a week on that news.

That being said, TSLA probably a good short here after the massive gamma squeeze, raised estimates that look questionable at best, and high probability of relationship w/ Trump going off the rails in <6 months.

bsky.app/profile/bloo...

If you have to choose, you definitely want the latter b/c he’ll preserve the brand premium and Nike is too juicy to ignore shareholders for long. Will have Acktivist-man and a handful of others breathing down their neck in due time if they can’t right the ship.

Party City is a good reminder that the most tempting shorts like PLTR and TSLA (bubble valuations managed by pricks, but high growth and no debt) are generally not great shorts, and the best shorts are overlevered retailers w/ high fixed costs and declining revenue.

Fake

A lot of team transitory has migrated to Bluesky but I will refrain from trolling them because this is a peaceful place.

Beginning of the end for the bromance.

And GDP grew only 2-3% his first term if you don’t include Covid shock, and that was without the massive deficit that needs to be managed. Definitely a glass is half full expectation right now.

New England. Small mom and pop. Had some amazing food so I shouldn’t complain but the croissant was a dinner roll.

There’s definitely opportunity in the sector, I’m hesitant to buy pharma as a generalist because it requires a lot of domain expertise. I’m long some services providers and tech.

Got long a bunch of health care today and was having some indigestion about it midday wondering if I’m underestimating possible reform… then I remembered Dr. Oz is going to be head of CMS. 😂

Currently eating a croissant from a British bakery.

Question: what the fuck??

Haha that’s fair. And estimates need to get revised lower. Mgmt said flat out they’re not well hedged for 2025 and about to take it on the chin. That said I’d back up the truck if it sees $150 or lower.