Alan

Prohibitive policies drove organised crime in Australia 100 years ago. It’s happening again Where there’s demand, there will be supply, legal or not. From the ‘sly grog’ of the 1920s to the illicit vapes of today, getting regulation right is difficult.

Check out the latest from @edjegasothy.bsky.social and me about Australia's historical experience with prohibition, and what lessons we can learn about it's impact on illicit markets and organised crime.

theconversation.com/prohibitive-...

Fourteen Years Without Smoke On My Birthday, I Celebrate the Day Vaping Helped Me Leave Cigarettes Behind

Fourteen Years Without Smoke
On My Birthday, I Celebrate the Day Vaping Helped Me Leave Cigarettes Behind
@alexwodak.bsky.social @melissasweetdr.bsky.social @squigglyrick.bsky.social
@drbfreeman.bsky.social

open.substack.com/pub/09algor/...

Consumers urge Sweden to veto EU Tobacco Tax Nine organisations representing users of safer nicotine products have called on the Swedish Government to veto Brussels plans to impose huge tax increases on vapes and nicotine pouches, calling the…

🚨 BREAKING: 9 consumer groups are urging Sweden to VETO a proposed EU tobacco tax hike. The proposal targets vapes and nicotine pouches with massive price increases, which experts warn will protect cigarette sales and undermine the "Swedish Model." 🇸🇪📉

Read more: clearingtheair.eu/en/post/cons...

Major victory for Mexico's war on cartels as army kills drug boss Powerful Mexican drug lord Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as "El Mencho", is killed in a military raid, sparking a wave of unrest and violence in several Mexican states.

Congratulations & grateful thanks to brave Mexican law enforcement risking their lives to kill drug kingpin. Pity it wont make scrap of difference @algore09algor.bsky.social @tninstitute.bsky.social @steverolles.bsky.social @drugpolicy.org @algore09algor.bsky.social
www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02...

1/3 Japan Tobacco (JTI) estimate total market share for reduced risk nicotine products for full year 2025 based on industry shipments - aligns well with 51.2% share in recent PMI estimate. So sales heated tobacco either about to overtake cigarette sales in 🇯🇵 or recently done so.

Tobacco control not only blocks contact with experts with different views, ie support tobacco harm reduction but also people with lived/living experience. Tobacco companies interested in views of harm reduction experts & people with lived/living experience. No wonder Big Tobacco will win

Inside the operation to eliminate Mexico's biggest drug lord 'El Mencho' Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes died after a gunfight with military personnel. Hours later, vehicles were set alight, roads blocked and shopfronts torched as retaliation in eight states.

‘Oseguera Cervantes's death will likely have no impact on Mexico's multinational drug trade or curb violence, according to multiple experts’
Really? You mean killing drug kingpin no effect on drug trade again? @jamomartin.bsky.social

www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02...

Those principles have guided sensible responses to other drugs for decades. There’s no coherent reason nicotine should be the lone exception.

Harm reduction is generally very much a bottom up movement. Use reduction is very much a top down movement. Tobacco control is a use reduction movement

Disruptive Innovation examples:

✅Smartphones
✅Streaming media
✅Electric vehicles
✅E-commerce platforms
✅Sharing economy platforms
✅Cloud computing
✅Digital payments
✅mRNA vaccines
✅Generative AI
✅Reusable rockets
✅E-books, digital publishing
✅Telemedicine
❌Tobacco Harm Reduction*
*Condition Apply

Core principles of harm reduction:

1 Accepts risky behaviour occurs
2 Prioritises reducing harm over moral judgement
3 Is evidence based
4 Respects autonomy & human rights
5 Often delivers large public health returns relative to cost

@jmenezes.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social

Nothing About Us Without Us Unless It’s Nicotine When public health forgets its own most important principle

Nothing About Us Without Us
Unless It’s Nicotine When public health forgets its own most important principle
@alexwodak.bsky.social

09algor.substack.com/p/nothing-ab...

Young people use vapes “3 times more likely” to start smoking.
But as this only observational, incapable of establishing causal relationship*.

*Note Conditions Apply: Observational evidence can be used to infer causal relationships for vaping
@publichealthaus.bsky.social @drbfreeman.bsky.social

Tobacco control & Big Tobacco swapped tactics. Big Tobacco used to deny smoking caused cancer though they knew it did. Now some tobacco control leaders claim vaping more risky than smoking. Welcome new Merchants of Doubt! @chancethegardener.bsky.social @jgitchell.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social

When Your Strongest Argument Is Counting Chairs

@alexwodak.bsky.social

Make Smoking Great Again!

•Ban/severely restrict vapes
•⬆️price cigs sky high so really cheap cigs now on black market
•Ban almost all vape flavours
•Misinform smokers vapes more risky than cigs
@algore09algor.bsky.social @jmenezes.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social

Flawed “switching” label may skew vape health findings, new analysis shows Two recent studies grouped some ongoing cigarette smokers under the label “EC switchers,” potentially distorting comparisons. In both papers, people classified as using vapes had significantly lower…

Is "switching" a lie in some health studies? 📉🤥 New analysis by Dr. @ArielleSelya reveals that recent papers labeled people as "vape switchers" even if they were still smoking, muddying the water on how much vapes actually help. clearingtheair.eu/post/flawed-...

~93 countries operate needle & syringe programs (as of 2024) & ~95 countries offer opioid treatment including methadone according to @harmreductionintl.bsky.social. Each of these programs had to be be fought for against ferocious resistance @jmenezes.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social

The Endgame Illusion - When Moral Certainty Replaces Policy Reality https://ash.org/making-endgame-inevitable/

The Endgame Illusion - When Moral Certainty Replaces Policy Reality

@alexwodak.bsky.social @melissasweetdr.bsky.social @squigglyrick.bsky.social

open.substack.com/pub/09algor/...

“One Word: Inevitable”—Tobacco Harm Reduction’s Heavy Hitter - Filter Few spaces are as hostile as the tobacco harm reduction (THR) policy debate. Lawmakers, media, ideologically-driven researchers, nonprofits and public ...

Laser like ability to cut to centre of arguments:
Tobacco harm reduction movement can count Clive Bates among its ranks. A kind of battle-hardened rock star of the field, British advocate is a formidable operator; without representing any major organisation

filtermag.org/tobacco-harm...

There are so many #BrutalTruths in this @kiransidhu41.bsky.social interview of @clivebates.bsky.social about the future of nicotine and public health.

Where does Clive get it wrong, tho? He would love to get less wrong, I'm sure.

“Nothing about us without us”*

Universal principal of involving people with lived/living experience now accepted as essential in public health policy development

*Note: Conditions apply for people who smoke/vape

@chancethegardener.bsky.social @jgitchell.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social

Black market tobacco crackdown: Liberals target illegal cigarettes used by 1.5 million Australians. The Australian

‘Buying cigs on black market … described as “national ­catastrophe” risks smoking rates ⬆️1st time>30 years & jeopardising future budget’
@algore09algor.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social

No significant link between exclusive vaping and heart disease, U.S. PATH study finds Cigarette smokers had 11% higher odds of developing cardiovascular disease than non-smokers Two inflammation markers in the blood - hsCRP and sICAM-1 - help explain much of that increased risk No…

U.S. PATH Study (2026) Results:

Exclusive Vaping: No significant heart disease link. ✅
Smoking: 11% higher risk. 📈
Inflammation: The "smoking gun" for heart damage. 🧬

#QuitLikeSweden #VapeSafe #HeartDisease #FactCheck clearingtheair.eu/post/no-sign...

While Europe dithers, US moves closer to seeing nicotine pouches as less harmful - Snusforumet US regulators have moved a step closer to allowing Zyn brand nicotine pouches to be marketed as less-harmful alternatives to cigarettes.

US regulators moved closer to allowing Zyn brand nicotine pouches 2 B marketed as less-harmful option to cigarettes. Recent public hearing org by USFDA reviewed evidence whether Swedish Match can include “reduced risk” language when advertising Zyn nicotine pouches

snusforumet.se/en/while-eur...

EXCLUSIVE: EU puts huge vape tax increase back on the table The EU’s minimum tax on vapes will be increased by 50% according to a new draft of the Tobacco Taxation Directive dated 18th February and seen by Clearing the Air. In a previous proposal, the minimum…

🚨 EXCLUSIVE: Brussels is coming for your nicotine. New EU proposals would slash cross-border cigarette limits by 50% and slap a massive €0.30/ml tax on all vape liquids. With pouches set at €107/kg, make no mistake, this is a tax on quitting. #EUTax #Vaping 🇪🇺 clearingtheair.eu/post/exclusi...

National Wastewater Surveillance of Illicit Tobacco and Vaping Use Trends This cross-sectional study uses wastewater samples to estimate the spatial and temporal trends in nicotine use, including vaping, from 2017 to 2023 in Australia.

‘Wastewater samples collected across Australia, representing 14 million people, were analyzed for back-estimation. …

Illicit tobacco use was estimated to have increased from 1350 to 3400 tons from 2017 to 2023’
@algore09algor.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social

jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Prohibitionists, including those among tobacco control, ignore miserable track record of drug & tobacco prohibitions & quasi prohibitions for effectiveness, cost effectiveness & nasty unintended consequences @algore09algor.bsky.social @jmenezes.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social

‘ … Reducing excise rates would shift consumption away from illicit products.'

Review of Australia’s illicit tobacco market

apo.org.au/node/333573

The Politics of Fear Calibration Why a Hypothetical Teen Trajectory Commands More Alarm Than Measurable Adult Relapse and What That Reveals About How We Weigh Risk

Why are speculative risks of Australian teens taking up vaping weighed more heavily than much greater risk of older smokers denied access to vaping developing deadly cancer, heart disease or COPD? @jmenezes.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/09algor/...