Tony Corke

#dataviz #color

📊🌈🎨

Had a lovely morning chatting with ChatGPT about the presence or absence of heteroskedasticity in my forecasts and those of the bookmakers

Now have new formulae for MoSHBODS for the Margin and Total SDs, and for Estimated Home Win probability.

Simples

At least they are CIVIL DIES

Pic of story from The Australian

A man from the Australian Jewish Association is trying to get Grace Tame’s sold out event in Bendigo, for International Women’s Day, cancelled

A 3D topographic map of Australia, rendered with a color gradient to represent elevation. The map highlights the continent's diverse terrain, including mountains, plains, and coastal areas.

Didn't realise that about the east coast... Topographical map of Australia
www.instagram.com/p/DA1lzfQMtJi/

by @cstats1

via Instagram user: @discover_our_planet_

When did “Ne-pawl” become “Ne-pal”?

#T20WorldCup #USAvNAM

Excellent point

Cat POV

- Threat entered domicile
- Threat neutralised effectively
- Human attacked me
- Threat escaped
- Unwelcome short flight
- Human released prisoner without trial

Never felt so betrayed and disappointed

My latest post is a big drop of new data. For the first time I publish two-party preferred preference data in so-called Non-Classic divisions, including high profile Independents. Data for the 2019, 2022 and 2025 elections. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-inde...

I asked ChatGPT to come up with a measure of the excitement associated with each game of men's AFL since 2000, based solely on score progression data

These are its Top 10. Thoughts?

Really interesting. Thank you!

(I have tried involving LLMs in some of my modelling work, but I certainly haven't been brave enough yet to give it much rope)

2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder Before Round 0 — Matter of Stats Welcome to the first season simulation for 2026. As you might imagine, after more than a decade of simulating the remainder of men’s AFL seasons, the code required to do so has become … substantial. ...

The MoS Men's AFL Sims are up

(Turns out that every one of the million replicates has a unique ladder ordering)

www.matterofstats.com/mafl-simulations/2026-simulating-the-final-ladder-before-round-0

Not sure I'd pay for this ...

The martini glasses are a nice touch

Fair to say the port to C++ went well.

Just under 9 mins ... for 1 million replicates

Probably write a blog for the Simulations journal tomorrow

ChatGPT told me I needed a "big rewrite" to get the speed up I was looking for in my code

Will this be yet another "Big" thing in Australia?

New local Chinese restaurant is thinking laterally

"Whatever happened to Ken?"

"Ah, Katie tagged him as debate bait ..."

Thanks, I might try that too if the port to C++ gets too frustrating (I'm at about a 6 out of 10 on my lose-patience scale right now)

Just curious about the speed benefits (which seem to be considerable. 189 mins down to 77 mins). Definitely worth considering a C++ port

I'm sure there are more improvements to be had, but at this point I'm just letting ChatGPT take the wheel and said (broadly) here's your working R version - build me a Python one that uses the same logic

So, with the current R script we're now at 3 hours, 9 minutes for 20k replicates of the entire men's 2026 season including the Wild Card besmirched Finals series (using 15 cores of the 20 available)

Now doing a 5k test run of the Python script

Tim Cahill

Pam Bondi loves dogs. Always had them, one after another. She got involved with dog shelters and dog rescue, and once pulled off to the side of a busy road and got out of her car to chase down a stray. Another dog she helped was a Saint Bernard named Master Tank. She adopted him from a shelter after he was lost during Hurricane Katrina in 2005, not long after her own Saint Bernard had died. The story has been told but bears repeating. Master Tank belonged to Steve and Dorreen Couture and their grandson, who was 4, recovering from the murder-suicide of his parents and losing his dog during the storm. Bondi said the dog was a “walking skeleton” and “dying from heartworms” when she adopted him. The Coutures eventually tracked down Master Tank, but instead of giving him back, Bondi hired a lawyer, who accused the Coutures of abusing the dog, which Bondi had renamed Noah. “She lied,” Dorreen told a Palm Beach Post columnist years later. “My little grandson begged her to take the dog home, and she refused. She thought she would just wear us down. That we were unstable people and would just quit.” The case was settled out of court, with Bondi securing visitation rights, but she never did visit. She got another dog.

This is some genuinely psycho shit...

AI clearly has a role to play in AFL commentary and analysis

As much as Kayo is a dumpster fire of reducing coverage and skyrocketing prices, I wish Prime and Stan would implement their Key Moments feature

Yeah, that’s fair

What comes after a Super Over? A Super Duper Over?

#AFGvsSA

Are "error bars" the right things to use for values that are measured without error (rounding issues aside)

2026 - The Year Ahead on MoS — Matter of Stats MoS is going around again for what is now its 21st year of operation, and there’s been a lot going on in the off-season, much of it assisted by AI, in particular ChatGPT. I’m very aware of the ambiva...

Plans for MoS in 2026

(Sign up for email updates if you want to be made aware when new content is posted there)

www.matterofstats.com/mafl-wagers-and-tips/2026/2/11/2026-the-year-ahead-on-mos