FT journalist to economist: How does it feel to have a career as a dismal scientist?

Economist: But … YOU’RE the dismal scientist!

on.ft.com/4n2TVBq

The first wave of the survey underpinning nonfarm payrolls has seen falling response rates, but in contrast to accusations the BLS has "failed to take corrective action" several targeted steps have kept 2nd & 3rd wave response rates at or above 90%--Gold standard data from dedicated public servants

it really is astounding that a presidential administration crashed the growth trajectory of the wealthiest country on the planet in basically two months

Goldman's Q1 estimates in recent weeks have gone from 1.8% ..

.. to 1.6%

.. to 1.3%

.. to 1.0%

.. to 0.6%.

substantial drop in German inflation readings by state, outright deflation in many:

Time series of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data on expected price changes for the next year by political party.

I cannot stress enough: do not use consumer sentiment data for macro modelling without a whole bunch of checks to make sure you're not accidentally capturing a partisan shift.

Brilliant satirical cover from Private Eye, mocking spineless media organisations and journalists who submit and cower in the face of power 👏

Variant of the butterfly meme. The butterfly is the FT headline: "Norway’s oil fund places £306mn bet on Mayfair property. Duke of Westminster’s company Grosvenor sells stake in new £1.2bn joint venture in London’s West End" The guy says: "Is this growth?"

When ancien energy régime petrodollars diversify into ancien régime property.

🪦

WaPo supports Nazism. Sorry but like, that’s what happening here.

May be missing something here.. permits of what?

FT headline: The president-elect of the US is promoting a shitcoin?

Me, for months: First slide in first Political economy of finance lecture must be an FT headline that is 𝒶𝒷𝓈𝑜𝓁𝓊𝓉𝑒𝓁𝓎 𝓅𝑒𝓇𝒻𝑒𝒸𝓉.

At last.

🙏 @alphaville.ft.com

everyone is bullish

i'm a bayesian. when i give a movie a 7/10 it means i'm 70% sure that it's good

Spot cobalt prices since 2010

Man the cobalt market is just nuts. On top of the, uh, deeply problematic supply chain, the volatility is amazing.

Bus usage outside London has fallen since the market was deregulated, while London bus usage has grown

That is some graph on bus usage outside London after deregulation
on.ft.com/49PfLlV

Never ever make predictions, especially about the future –– and above all about interest rates. www.ft.com/content/3e92...

Warhammer is weird. That’s why it works [FREE TO READ] Making sense of London’s latest blue-chip stock

Waaagh! on.ft.com/4gyIxJy

Economists: RCTs are the gold standard for causal inference

Also economists: The gold standard was a very bad idea

*CHINA POLICYMAKERS MULL ALLOWING YUAN TO WEAKEN IN '25: REUTERS

China Is Cutting Off Drone Supplies Critical to Ukraine War Equipment squeeze follows sanctions on US military contractors Beijing expected to set tighter drone curbs as soon as January By Mark Bergen, Mackenzie Hawkins and Gian Volpicelli (Bloomberg) -- China’s escalating conflict with the US over trade is now extending to the drones that have become a vital part of Ukraine’s defense.  Manufacturers in China recently began limiting sales to the US and Europe of key components used to build unmanned aerial vehicles, according to multiple people with knowledge of the developments, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information.  The moves are a prelude to broader export restrictions on drone parts that western officials expect Beijing to enforce in the new year, the people said. Those rules could take the form of license approvals based on the intended use of the components or softer requirements for Chinese companies to notify the government of their shipment plans, according to one of the people. Representatives for China’s Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology did not respond to a request for comment.  The trade conflict has ratcheted up this month, with Washington slapping fresh curbs on the sale of high-bandwidth memory chips and additional semiconductor gear to China. In response, Beijing banned the sale of dual-use items to the American military and several materials with high-tech and military applications to US companies. The measures, weeks before Donald Trump returns to the presidency with a tough-on-China agenda, have sent prices spiking and upended trade flows as manufacturers sought alternative supplies.  Beijing’s response asserts for the first time that the trade restrictions apply to Chinese goods — or goods with Chinese parts — sold by vendors in and outside of the country, signaling an attempt to replicate the extraterritorial reach of US and European sanctions.  Drone Curbs  The limits on shipmen…

Bloomberg reports Chinese limitations on drone component exports are starting to take a toll on Ukraine's military capabilities.

Has someone already done an ecological impact report for what would happen if we wiped out all mosquitoes and can we do it anyway please?

Any positives here should be seen with the backdrop of the opportunity cost. If this transit route is used by many, then that simply shows demand for transport from point A to B. A train beats the ‘loop’ on every aspect other than what ends up in Musk’s pocketses.

Really feeling sorry for forecasters over the coming few months (and years). Unpredictable policymaking by a major economy can be the deciding factor for many forecast errors going forward.

…. Perhaps be a bit more lenient with your RMSE, MAPE scores…

This as clear cut an example of consolidation harming consumers as you can imagine

Samsung -7%

Who could have thought that increasing supply places downward pressure on market prices

The Hidden Roots of America's Baby Bust | Crooked Media

I've already smelled some birth rate discourse on the skyline so going to post a prophylactic.

Nobody, anywhere, has figured out a way to incentivize higher birth rates once they fall sharply.