Erika McEntarfer

(I was actually not working during the October reference period and I could not tell you what search methods I used that week, tbh)

My hunch is active search activities would be the hard one here but I defer to the statisticians

This is why

How bad does data have to be before it is worse than no data at all is the question here and while I don’t think 2 month recall bias would pass that threshold it’s a guess, we don’t know

Several constraints, all binding:
1. You would have to redesign the questionnaire
2. You would have to redesign the tech infrastructure used in the field
3. There’s no staff, no time to do either one
4. Even if you could do it, somehow, you’d introduce a heavy amount of recall bias into the answers

So great to see BLS back to work measuring and informing us about our large and dynamic economy.

It’s a great institution full of dedicated civil servants deeply committed their mission. They have had a tough year, and everyone is covering for someone who left. I thank them all for their service.

Also anyone who thinks BLS is consulting an FOMC calendar while bringing the entire machinery of data collection, curation, and dissemination back online is sorely mistaken.

No conspiracy here, folks. BLS was entirely shutdown for six weeks. Payroll data from firms can be retroactively collected for October. The household survey cannot be conducted retrospectively. This is just a straightforward consequence of having all field staff furloughed for over a month

BLS confirms that October jobs report will not be released, but that October payroll numbers will be published with the November report

When Canada tried this is was a data disaster for large swaths of the country

Talking about the tradeoffs between timeliness and accuracy is pretty abstract until you watch the Fed trying to read tea leaves from scraped LinkedIn data and online layoff announcements until the official data comes out

While everyone is still digesting how it feels to not see a Sept jobs report until late November, remember this feeling the next time folks complain about monthly revisions and suggest publishing data with a 2 or 3 month lag.

No. BLS decides. If that changed the staff would let the public know.

October Jobs Report to Skip Unemployment Rate, Hassett Says The October jobs report will be released without a reading of the unemployment rate, President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser said Thursday.

Hassett confirms that only the household half of the jobs report is severely impacted, the payroll portion (CES) for October will be released www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The more immediate problem is that a hole in October would mean two missing monthly changes (October and November). The Fed and others need higher frequency data.

The headline jobs growth number is from a business survey and my guess is BLS will be able to get enough firms to send last month’s data to get a number there. The harder part is the household survey which is the source of the unemployment rate. You can’t redesign that survey on the fly

The statistical agencies all sustained damage from DOGE but they are strong institutions and can recover if they are supported instead of further sabotaged

Allow me to translate. October data was not collected as field staff were all furloughed. In some cases, that data can be recovered from businesses. In other cases, the window to collect the data has closed (consumer prices, labor force status) and the data hole may be permanent.

September jobs and inflation data were collected as federal staff were working during Sept. But the release dates were during the shutdown.

OMB pulled some BLS staff in to release the Sept. CPI data because SSA needs it to calculate the cost of living increase for Social Security.

My guess (emphasis guess) is that we might see CES and PPI numbers for October but rolled into the November release

Situation is more complicated for the unemployment rate but if the WH is saying it’s not possible that means BLS/Census told them it isn’t

All of BLS has been furloughed since October 1st. That means no one was collecting data in Oct. You can’t just walk into a Costco in mid-November and find out what the price of a good was in October. That’s why an October CPI isn’t possible.

It’s possible she just means October CPS is unlikely to be released

🤣

150-200K federal workers exited payroll on Sept 30 (drp, not the shutdown) so BLS total NFP bound to be lower than -58K

The two sectors that fueled much job growth in 2024 were health care and (local) government. Health care growth is likely driven by demographics (older population demanding more care) so not surprising to see it bounce back. But public sector growth was sputtering out in the last few BLS reports.

The usual caveats apply when comparing ADP to BLS jobs reports.

But add an additional one for October; this report was anticipated to be a big negative headline print - an estimated 150,000-200,000 federal workers left government at the end of September.

www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...

It’s been just one month with little official economic data.

A very nice rundown of what private data sources can and cannot tell you about the state of the economy right now.

AI and Labor Markets: What We Know and Don't Know Postdoctoral Fellow Bharat Chandar writes about what we know--and don't know-- about AI and labor markets.

Here's a recent note from one of the authors of that paper, saying, "Together the evidence suggests overall hiring has not declined meaningfully due to AI."