Wessel van Rensburg

NEW: The PLA flew a surveillance drone through Taiwanese airspace over Pratas on January 17, possibly marking the first confirmed PLA violation of Taiwanese territorial airspace in decades.

Read the full January 23, China & Taiwan Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...

Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

Welcome to the new multipolar

BofA Says US Stocks Saw Outflow in Week Trump Threatened Tariffs US stocks suffered nearly $17 billion in outflows, according to Bank of America Corp., during a week marked by President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on some European countries over Greenland.

US stocks suffered nearly $17 billion in outflows during a week marked by Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on some European countries over Greenland.

Cover of discussion paper ‘The US dollar system as a source of international disorder’

‘The more that other countries look to escape US financial coercion, the more the US will scale it up… The global dollar system may now be a source of instability rather than stability.’ Our new paper by
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social & @himself.bsky.social
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/documents/60...

Good thread on new Franco-German report on how to get more capital flowing to support European start-ups & scale-ups. Don't think 28th regime is the answer (too politically fraught) -- and agree the solution lies in allowing pension funds/others to do more risk-taking (but also politically tricky)

Polish general who served in Iraq condemns "coward" Trump over criticism of NATO allies

The former commander of Poland's GROM special forces in Iraq and Afghanistan has condemned Donald Trump for questioning the contribution of America's allies

"This is the cynicism of a coward who hasn’t been on the front lines himself," said General Roman Polko.

Getting harder to envision King Charles coming to celebrate the US’s 250th.

@skynewsrss.bsky.social
news.sky.com/story/trump-...

Large brick wall with a tiny white signat the base of the wall that says "Slavery was real"

"Slavery was real"

Tiny sign at the base of a brick wall that, until yesterday, held panels about the people enslaved by George Washington.

Presidents House, Philadelphia.

Chart from Economist on unemployment in Southern and Northern Europe since 2005 now converging.

Amazing chart with horrible acronyms - for the first time in my living memory, unemployment in Northern Europe and Southern Europe seems to have converged. Seemed unthinkable during the Eurozone crisis.

Merz, Meloni rally behind disinfo-fighting center that Trump thinks is ‘wasteful’ German and Italian leaders want to hold the line against Russia’s hybrid threats.

Germany's Friedrich Merz and Italy's Giorgia Meloni have backed an organization dedicated to fighting hybrid threats and disinformation, weeks after the U.S. exited it and called it “wasteful.”

Tether has been struggling to get back to it's peg with the dollar for three days now.

stablepulse.raak.work

#stablecoin

It's not a question if if, but when Europe will put wider tarriffs on China.

In this Bruegel podcast the finger is pointed at currency manipulation.

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...

Le ministre du commerce, Serge Papin, pense qu’« il faut casser la gueule aux Chinois » L’ancien patron de Système U a prononcé cette phrase, mercredi 21 janvier au soir, lors de la cérémonie des vœux de la Confédération des petites et moyennes entreprises. Il visait en particulier Shein, la plateforme de vente de produits à petits prix contre laquelle une action en justice est engagée par l’Etat.

In case you're wondering how France views the possibility of rapprochement with China - this from the trade minister might help

'"We have to beat the Chinese up!" A short phrase that was aimed primarily at Shein'

via Xiaofei Xu

Good that he realises this. But for Europe to be effective, sticking together means it should act like a state. And Germany could help or hinder that. Past form is not encouraging.

Europeans after managing to prevent the collapse of NATO for another 1-2 weeks…

#Europe #Rutte

Trump Muses About Asking NATO to Help Protect US Southern Border President Donald Trump openly mused about invoking NATO’s collective defense obligation to place allied troops along the US-Mexico border, a suggestion that, even if not meant seriously, represents another volley of rhetoric aimed squarely at European allies.

President Donald Trump openly mused about invoking NATO’s collective defense obligation to place allied troops along the US-Mexico border, a suggestion that, even if not meant seriously, represents another volley of rhetoric aimed squarely at European allies.

This is one of the reasons it's not enough for European politicians to cowtow to Trump for the sake of the economy.

This ad is very effective. It hits the right notes and seems sincere. Made all the more so because of the poor alternatives.

Hope, like hate, is contagious.

It’s somehow fitting that the most litigious, most confrontational executive ever thinks he can stare down the global treasury market. 🤡

@barrons.com @mdbaccardax.bsky.social
www.barrons.com/articles/tru...

A graph of US data center construction, which rises from $15B to $42B from 2022 to 2025

US data center construction inched up to a new record high in data released today, exceeding a $42B annualized rate (and this only includes the data center facilities, not the expensive computers within)

Growth has slowed down, but investment is still up 18.5% over the last year

Belgian PM says atlanticism is over (and botches Gramsci) bsky.app/profile/meli...

Oo very interesting

Vows response if Trump restarts the scrap:

"Any threat to acquire European territory by force would be unacceptable. Tariffs would also undermine the foundations of transatlantic relations, if they are put in place, Europe's answer would be united, calm, measured and firm."

Totally. It is THE Achilles heel, including the small matter of Euro bonds, capital markets union, banking union.

Danish PM Mette Freidriksen on Trump-Rutte's Greenland "deal"

"We can negotiate on everything political; security, investments, economy. But we cannot negotiate on our sovereignty. I have been informed that this has not been the case either."

stm.dk/presse/presse...

Would be outrageous if he did.

Japanese NAND flash maker Kioxia's stock is up ~800% over the past 12 months, as AI demand and constrained NAND flash supply boost the chipmaker's pricing power (Financial Times)

Main Link | Techmeme Permalink

Another lie Carney forces us to see? EU digital policy: we signal principles, rules ("DMA, DSA!") signalling, simultaneously, our reluctance to absorb the costs and troubles of enforcing them (unlimited examples)

Great piece from Jeremy that goes beyond the norm on the China energy story.

Some Europeans will be reassured by this, and wind down the (cautious) assertiveness of recent days.

But it shows that displays of European resolve move Trump in ways that the misguided sycophancy of previous 12 months never did. It's a reason to press forward, not pull back.